# The Official Pool

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I am sticking with my Original guess of October 30, 2006

I am sure Fizzy and his magic can come up with a more mathamatical calculation as we rapidly approach.

Anybody......?!!??

Anybody......?!!??

An extremely wild guess here. Let's say Oct 6, my birthday!

October 21st (early AM)

What do I get if I'm right?

November 10, 2006 - My Birthday!

October 21st (early AM)

What do I get if I'm right?

Maybe we can talk Jeremy into reserving the first 5 character GC code for the winner? Jeremy?

Nov. 13, 2006...*my* birthday...

November 19th (& JRR's birthday)

Arent there six digits in a cache?

Arent there six digits in a cache?

Yes, but the first 2 are always "GC"

Nov. 30th, 2006

Mix

(and the last cache will be a Micro)

(so will the 1st of the new set)

Edited by Mix

Well considering there are only 4 digits to play with since the first digits are always GC that would be base 32 for each digit multiplied by base 32 for each digit thats 157 thousand or so caches before the need to go to 7 digits including the standard GC at the front so plently of time yet I guess?

My maths sucks so the above could be completly wrong but I do believe it will be a while yet before the need for 7 digit cache codes.

Edit.. or is that 1 048 576 caches with base 32 but with 26 characters in the alphabet and 10 digits 0 - 9 that would be 1 679 616 caches. Its being a late night, please dont try to fly a plane with these calculations.

Night!

Edited by olmeca

Well considering there are only 4 digits to play with since the first digits are always GC that would be base 32 for each digit multiplied by base 32 for each digit thats 157 thousand or so caches before the need to go to 7 digits including the standard GC at the front so plently of time yet I guess?

My maths sucks so the above could be completly wrong but I do believe it will be a while yet before the need for 7 digit cache codes.

Fizzy Magic is the expert here but up to GCFFFF it was hex numbers and ever since it is a base 31 code. (I think - looking to make sure) so less then you think. He has a calulator. See: http://www.fizzymagic.net/Geocaching/GeoCalc/GeoCalc.html

So something like 60,000 to go

Edited by StarBrand

Hmmmm Using just 4 digits and all the numbers and letters, I get 1,679,616

Using 6 digits gets 2,176,782,336

I'm guessing sometime during 2025. You younguns worry about it.

GCZZZZ will be cache number 512400

Today I will hide GCXZA4 (which I just generated a cachepage for) this will be cache number 452172

so 60228 left as of this post.

BTY

cache number 512401 will be GC10000

2 weeks ago I hid GCXNWY (#444075)

452172-

444075

______

8097

60228 / 8097 = 7.4

so about 15 weeks give or take

My guess (as above) is 30th November which is 13ish weeks as I think the rate will go up at the end.

Edited by Mix

I am not good at this type stuff so I am going to guess......

December 25th 2006

My birthday, seems a good choice since everyone else is guessing their b-day.

I am surprised that people think it is so close.....do 60,000 caches get submitted in that short of time frame?? (That is if the 60k left is correct.....I have no idea)

2 weeks ago I hid GCXNWY (#444075)

452172-

444075

______

8097

60228 / 8097 = 7.4

so about 15 weeks give or take

My guess (as above) is 30th November which is 13ish weeks as I think the rate will go up at the end.

Doesn't this lead the usual 'is growth regular' discussion?

December 17th at 8:15pm MST.

You all forget that people cache and place less during the winter. It will be the evening of the 17th because those who place during the weekend will upload the final cache of the GCxxxx series.

I would bet my cheap mctoys on it.

I hid a cache back in January. It was called "Homer #230457"(archived now). At the time of approval, that was the actual number of the cache (according to the approver who researched it). The approver changed the number to reflect this.

Hmm.......

I'll take December 7, 2006 - at 1:23am EST (most caches are published at night it seems)

I'll take Jemuary twentyteenth 1900 zulu hours 2007(a)

I'll take Jemuary twentyteenth 1900 zulu hours 2007(a)

Sweet! That's my birthday!

I'm guessing 2 dates, if people go an a frenzy trying to be the person to place the first GCxxxx cache, I'm saying Oct. 15th. (By B-Day! ) or if they don't hide as many, December 31st, 11:59PM xD

I'll take November 16th, my son's birthday.

December 17th at 8:15pm MST.

You all forget that people cache and place less during the winter. It will be the evening of the 17th because those who place during the weekend will upload the final cache of the GCxxxx series.

I would bet my cheap mctoys on it.

ah but you are forgetting the antipodeans spring rush (Sept - Nov) of cache hides

http://www.caughtatwork.net/geocaching/gra...i.php?state=ALL

personally, I think we should start naming them GDxxxx

creating 6 digit geocache and 7 digit geocache codes would be a nightmare for ordering reasons, for those who rely on using the extra available chars for other stuff (like me) ...

Other GPS based games use GD****

December 24, 2006 10:48:21 AM

I'll guess November 21st at 8:30 pm because that's my birthday. It's also Jeremy's birthday, gpsfun's birthday and 9Key's birthday.

October 31st. Hallowing Night. I have a 'spooky' feeling about it. Ok that was retarded.

After GC runs out, we should do EM for my initials, cause I rock like that.

Kidding..........I think

November 11 is my guess.

However, are we guessing, as the OP put it, "What Day will we run out of 4 digit GC" or when the first 5 digit is published? The 4 digits are assigned as soon as you hit the "Report New Listing" button. BUT if you have the "Yes, this listing is active" box unchecked, then the listing won't publish right away. In addition, the speed of the Reviewer will come into play for the exact date of publishing.

Most of my listings take me multiple days of editing before I post them to be reviewed. GCWC2E is my cache that I have not yet published. Not intentionally, but I have been sitting on that number since June. Maybe a rush to lock up 4 digit codes will result in cache pages being created, but not published. Could force the day of the first 5 digit to be sooner.

I am sure I will get many of the regular complainers telling me how bad of a geocacher I am because I am sitting on a number, too bad. I work at my own pace.

Loch Cache

If I guess some date in early November and then when we get down to the last few hundred near my date, I submit a large number of bogus caches in order to "watch the odometer flip" on the exact date I submit here...what do I win?

In other words...I don't know if a prize is a good thing.

Regardless of whether someone tries to manipulate it,

I'll take GPS week 1405, 496814 seconds (2006-12-15 18:00:00 UTC).

If I guess some date in early November and then when we get down to the last few hundred near my date, I submit a large number of bogus caches in order to "watch the odometer flip" on the exact date I submit here...what do I win?

In other words...I don't know if a prize is a good thing.

Not much I can do about folks that try to "play thier own game".......

This is much more for fun than any prize - just to make things clear.

By the way - let me ammend my OP to ask for a time as well. So for me Oct 30, 2006 at 9:00pm (in seattle).

You all can have your "birthday" guesses.

I'll stick with my un-birthday prediction. As long as it's not next May, I win.

November 9th, 2006 (My BDay)

at 5:56pm....

I'm going with 11/23/2006. It's within a couple of days of my newest projection, and it's my wife's birthday, to boot!

personally, I think we should start naming them GDxxxx

creating 6 digit geocache and 7 digit geocache codes would be a nightmare for ordering reasons, for those who rely on using the extra available chars for other stuff (like me) ...

I'm already preparing for the change. I modify waypoint names and add extra characters for my GPSr, too. I have already tried and tested using hypothetical 7 digit (GC+5) codes by GSAK and by hand-editing GPX files. Shouldn't affect me when the change occurs on...

November 25, 2006.

I don't know what time exactly, since many people will be hiding caches to burn off calories from Thanksgiving feasts.

Definitely November 20, 5:24 AM. My fish said so. And he said he is ALWAYS right.

I'm going with November 1. My wife was born that day and my first child is due that day.

*graciously accepts applause and prepares to hand out cigars... wait I don't smoke... prepares to hand out butterfingers or the like*

I'm going with November 1. My wife was born that day and my first child is due that day.

Excellent! That will be a birthday in my family as well! Nov 1 it is .... 6:47pm.

Of course as we get closer the numbers will go faster. Just fishing for GCxxx? codes recently it seems like there are a bunch unpublished. Any idea how many are unpublished vs active vs archived?

I'll say November 14th.

November 30th sounds just right.....

In honor of all the lives lost in the worst terrorist attack on America. I am going with 9/11/06.

Some of our dates have come and gone. Anyone know where we stand?

I am sticking with December 17th at 8:15pm MST

Cache installs will slow down towards the cooler weather...Groundspeak will surprise us all and start the New Year off with 5 digit GCs. Jan 1, 2007.

I'll take Nov 11th, at 11am PST on the nose.

Was going to take Nov 20th, as that is my 5 year Geocaching anniversary, but I have about 3000 caches to place before then...

The Blue Quasar

Some of our dates have come and gone. Anyone know where we stand?

I am sticking with December 17th at 8:15pm MST

My birthday! Woo hoo!

I am guessing March 22, 2030. That is my birthday.

Using the 4 digits that are changeable, that makes a total of 1,679,616 caches that can be hidden with the present system. Don't think we will run out in the near future.

Going to be latter than my guess of Oct 30th but not by much I don't think.

I'll stick with that prediction to be honorable but will now also guess Nov 20th.

4-bows - wrong - it is a base 31 system changed from an original hex system - there are considerably less than you think.

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