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The FTF Effect


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There's something I've noticed over the years...and I've always thought it a bit odd.

 

It usually goes like this:  a new cache is published and the usual race is on for FTF.  Sometimes it happens immediately...sometimes there is a delay due to it being published in the evening...sometimes it takes days, weeks or even months for someone to find it because of puzzle difficulty or the hide being particularly evil.

 

Once it's found, though...it seems that interest in that cache measurably declines.  Often it will then go a long time before it's found again.  Then a certain 'rhythm' kicks in and it's logged on a more regular basis.  It's this initial "dry spell" I find interesting.  Why does missing FTF seemingly turn others off finding it for a long stretch?  Personally, I don't care if I'm the second or third person to log it and I will often end up going to find it shortly after publication, whether the FTF went to someone else or not.  I just think it's kind of odd.  I was FTF on a multi several days ago and I've observed this 'effect'.  There are usually a number of regulars who will cache this particular area of town pretty reliably, but for some reason nobody else has come by to log a find on this one so far.  I actually suspect part of it may be the hide difficulty and people not logging DNFs...but this effect can be observed at just about every level of terrain and difficulty.  Around here it can, at least.  

 

I guess my question is whether folks tend to lose interest in finding a new cache just because they aren't "first"...and if so, why? Should I be calling it the "Sour Grapes Effect" instead?

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I can not recognize this pattern for traditional caches but there is reason why mystery caches may have this delay. After the FTF there is only limited number of geocachers who knows the location. Then suddenly, the knowledge about the location spreads to many geocachers in an event or by other means and you may see more finds.

Edited by arisoft
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I've noticed the pattern too. Tho I think day of the week it's published can make a difference. More geocachers get out on the weekend.

But, I think it's just that the exception to the regular flow of having an uptick of geocaching on the weekends with less mid-week, of a handful of highly active FTF racers means that once that first rush is done, the 'gap', as it were, before casual cachers check the map, or update their device, or just get out to the area, seems all that more substantial.  Like, casual the geocachers will eventually get to it, but I don't think the age of the cache has any effect on it, it's just a perception.

 

I think it's like the "I always hit all the red lights when I'm in a hurry!" effect. :)

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20 minutes ago, thebruce0 said:

once that first rush is done, the 'gap', as it were, before casual cachers check the map, or update their device, or just get out to the area, seems all that more substantial

That was my initial thought. If non-FTF-hounds have a fairly regular schedule for pulling up caches, they might not see the new cache for X days or weeks, resulting in a lull.

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I can't say I've noticed the effect, but I can see how I might contribute to it.

 

At any point in time, I have a sort of "list" (nothing formal) of caches I'd like to do.    I'm not a big FTF person, but if I see an opportunity  I might go for it - put it in front of the queue.   

Once it is found, it is just like every other cache.   If it looks really interesting it might still jump my queue; otherwise I'll make a note to find it "sometime", and look for the others I was already planning (on my "list").  

 

The exception is if it is really close to home (within 3 miles say).    Those I will look for more quickly (FTF or not), as they are close by and easier for me to get to.   

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If I can go for a FTF I do the last one I tried for though missed it as I was eating dinner, no it's not that important.

 

I can only speak for myself here but maybe others do similar thing.

 

So I am slowly clearing out the bubble around my home location of traditionals. Managed 5 miles with a few left at 6, handful at 7 and a two hundred at 10. So if a new one comes in that 5-6 miles I will definitely priorities getting it. Specially if it is in an area I've already cleared. In the wider bubble though my motivation is two fold. One newbie caches won't last long sometimes. The second is of the couple hundred I have not found unfortunately a lot of them are no longer maintained well. So I tend to prioritize the most recently found ones as those have fewer problems.

 

With puzzles I take a look does it interest me? Yes, do I want to solve it now or later great. No, can't even figure out where to begin ... move to ignore list. I

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The way I see the pattern is that there's some immediate interest, so FTF and some also rans, but then it falls into a pattern where interest grows over time. I don't see as big a time lag as you do, I just see the number of finds gradually going up until they get to the steady state of an established cache. So according to my theory, the FTF activity at the beginning is the anomaly, not the slow activity right after that. That slow period just reflects people getting around to noticing the cache and deciding to make it a target.

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2 hours ago, J Grouchy said:

There's something I've noticed over the years...and I've always thought it a bit odd.

2 hours ago, J Grouchy said:

 

I guess my question is whether folks tend to lose interest in finding a new cache just because they aren't "first"...and if so, why? Should I be calling it the "Sour Grapes Effect" instead?

 

 I don't think it's "sour grapes" at all. 

We see the same, but recognize names as the FTF hounds the first day  or six out.  Logs of "congrats to..." and such from that group sorta enforce that.

Everyone else caches the way they normally do, which is when they have time.   :)

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I've seen this pattern for at least 10 years, so it's nothing new.

 

You have the usual people eager to find the new cache - for a variety of reasons (FTF hound, running a streak and this is low hanging fruit, not caching unless it's local, etc.) 

The downside to this mad rush in the early hours of a new cache is it's likely to suddenly draw attention - maybe it's in a neighborhood and the locals are suddenly wary of a lot of vehicles suddenly coming and going and people poking about - this is where Gladys Kravitz lives and she's now in an absolute tizzy, it's probably drugs or terrorism related(!)

 

Nothing really can be done, other than Cache Owners need to be familiar with the idea there may be 10 people visiting GZ in the first 24 hours and an additional 5 in the week.

 

There was an unfortunate occurrence, not particularly FTF related, which happened back when Seattle/Carnation, Washington hosted GW-whatever, where there was the first Going APE event.  We rode by the busload from parking to disembarkation point and proceeded up a trail, through the woods to the APE cache, finding a few caches along the way - one was off trail a ways near a brook and suddenly had a parade of hundreds of feet trampling the underbrush on the way to the cache.  The CO was utterly mortified by the destruction to the environment this brought about and immediately archived the cache.

 

So, CO be mindful what you might bring.

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57 minutes ago, cerberus1 said:

 

 I don't think it's "sour grapes" at all. 

We see the same, but recognize names as the FTF hounds the first day  or six out.  Logs of "congrats to..." and such from that group sorta enforce that.

Everyone else caches the way they normally do, which is when they have time.   :)

 

I get the notifications, and consider what I might try. If nobody can find it, I might go look later. I can sometimes find it by knowing it's not in that 30-foot radius, the FTF guys searched there already.

 

Otherwise, I go find it when I'm over there. I'd suppose that non-FTF people who also don't go find all caches in the whole area, don't pay attention to the “notifications”, and the cache icon becomes absorbed into the mass of other cache icons. There are thousands of them.

 

There are locals who seem to have everything set up, they are ready to go when the notification happens. Caches around here get published at more or less predictable times, and I guess the FTF people have a clear schedule at those times.  They are ready to spring into action.  And that's how they keep the grid clear. It's just their thing. 

 

So I submit my caches when everyone's two hours away at a big Geocaching Event, or when a round of thunderstorms is about to hit. I'm naughty like that. :D

 

Edited by kunarion
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24 minutes ago, kunarion said:

So I submit my caches when everyone's two hours away at a big Geocaching Event, or when a round of thunderstorms is about to hit. I'm naughty like that. :D

 

 

I once took notice when a local FTF hound was going to travel and would then publish some caches.  Too much bother now, I just hides 'em and publishes 'em when I can.  Too many diversions these days.

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I am a self proclaimed FTF hound. --On my 4th year of at least 1 FTF per month--  My notifications are setup and if I am available I rush out for all caches I can no matter the D/T or type if I have it solved.   

 

Caches below a 2/2 typically do not make it on to my offline list.  Once it has been found,  I remove it.

 

It would have to have something special about it, gadget, Virtual, AR ...for me to seek it.  Most newbie hides and the somewhat spontaneous "I thought this area needed one" hides tend toward a lower rating. 1. Because I want to raise my average for challenge caches. 2. I am more interested 'challenging' caches whether Difficulty or Terrain. 3. Typical urban/LPCs don't keep me excited about the game. 

 

That being said, I have found plenty of lower D/T rated caches, I just don't specifically seek them out like the higher rated ones.  If I am running errands, yes I will look at the live map and grab the LPC in the parking lot.  If I am hiking to the end/turning pt of the trail for the high D/T cache on my list I will generally grab the easier ones on the return, but not always.  Go for the goal cache first and then it depends on how much time I have.

 

We all cache our own way. I have spoken with other FTF hounds over the years and have noticed a similar philosophy with others.  I think this contributes to the drop off until people 'get around' to finding them.

Slight Tangent:  There are also those Adventure cache FTFers that aren't even interested unless there is a puzzle, multi or at least a 3/3 cache involved.  I have noticed these caches always have the same FTFers as well.

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7 minutes ago, OwenfromKC said:

Slight Tangent:  There are also those Adventure cache FTFers that aren't even interested unless there is a puzzle, multi or at least a 3/3 cache involved.  I have noticed these caches always have the same FTFers as well.

 

We've seen that whenever anything more than a "2.5" comes out.     

Here, the same who FTF a multi or 3/3+ cache,  find them FTF only because few do them.  I might FTF one weeks after published. 

 -  Most areas I play, there's only a handful of people who head to them at all anyway.    :)

Our favorite hider always threatens to quit  placing caches because, "I'm putting out caches for the same six people".   :D

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I have another possible theory for the described "dry spell".

 

It could be due to the number of other caches in the vicinity. For example, let's say a new cache gets published in an area where most of the other caches have been there for years and most of the locals have found them. While some may be gung-ho to head there to try for the FTF, once that "reward" is gone, it's just a single cache on its own. If there are later some more new caches hidden in the vicinity, it makes it "more worth it" for someone to spend the time going to that area, rather than just heading out to find a single cache.

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25 minutes ago, The A-Team said:

I have another possible theory for the described "dry spell".

 

It could be due to the number of other caches in the vicinity.

 

Yep, we have many like that.  Some (older, long-time cachers here mostly) will wait for a few, often in a group, to make it a day .

Like the folks who finally hit the "lonely" cache a couple miles in,  because of the " on my way to..." caches placed.   :)

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I don't think it makes much of a difference in my area.  Most probably know that one of a very small handful will be the FTF, and then most likely just add it to their list to find when they have time.  When there is a new cache published, if you don't go after it within 15 minutes, tops, you're not gonna get the FTF.  I got one recently, logged it within 15 minutes when I got home, and the 2nd to find got his knickers in a twist because I didn't log it within a minute of finding it.  Well, sorry, but I load the cache into my GPS and go--I don't use my phone.

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I think you got it a little bit the other way around. It's not that the interest in the cache decreases. It's that the interest in a new cache ( FTF to be speciffic) increases for some people.

Each area has a different caching frequency patterns, which also depend on the type. For each cache it can increase over time (if it gains more FP in an area visited by tourists) or decreases if it's an average cache and the locals have already found it. These patterns get distorted by an FTF waiting.

 

If there is an FTF waiting, I'll rush it. Otherwise I'll grab the cache next time I'm in the area. So I'm not unterested in the cache, I just don't have a reason to go only for that one (unless it's a gadget / T5 / Nice WiGo/ other factor that makes it exceptional).

Edited by TheVoytekBear
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7 hours ago, TheVoytekBear said:

I think you got it a little bit the other way around. It's not that the interest in the cache decreases. It's that the interest in a new cache ( FTF to be speciffic) increases for some people.

I agree with this. The lure of a FTF will sometimes entice me to visit areas that otherwise are not high on my list of places to go... but for whatever silly reason I want to pursue the FTF. Once the FTF is no longer available, that enticement goes away and I will decide to visit the cache based on other criteria. Often there is no particular rush to go after said cache and I will wait until it makes sense for me to visit.

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I have seen a bunch of cache listings in Europe (primarily the UK) which have a "podium" the recognizes the FTF 2TF and 3TF.  After the podium is full the find rate drops off significantly.  

 

That last time I attempted (and got) a FTF was on a cache that was about 150 from my front door (I live across the road from a park).  Prior to that my last attempt (and got) for a FTF was on a cache in Malaysia, a little over 9400 miles from home.

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2 hours ago, NYPaddleCacher said:

I have seen a bunch of cache listings in Europe (primarily the UK) which have a "podium" the recognizes the FTF 2TF and 3TF.  After the podium is full the find rate drops off significantly. 

I saw this for a while when I was in Eastern Tennessee, the podium thing that is. Doesn't look like the geocachers there are still using it though.

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In Belgium and the Netherlands there are podium images on a lot of caches. As for a drop in finds after the "podium" is filled, I don't know and don't follow up either. If close enough I'll take a look at the cachepage of newly published caches, I will try to solve mysteries as soon as possible but I don't run out to get a FTF. A few weeks ago a mystery at 250m from home was published in the evening. Had it solved 15 minutes later and checked the listing a few times. It remained unfound for two days. A multi at a few 100m from here was published the following day and was solved from home. That too went unfound for a day or two. I still haven't gone out to find those two caches. Walked by the mystery earlier this week with friends so didn't bother logging at that moment. Passed the multi's final location at least 8 times by car but haven't stopped there yet....

It's been years since I ran out for a FTF although I got one in Japan (few days after publication) and one in Réunion (also a few days after publication). I knew both were unfound during our holiday and was just lucky to be there first.

 

In case of series we see no drop in finds but the weekends after publishing we avoid them as many will then go find them. As for multi's (especially the longer ones) this is less true and we hardly meet other cachers when doing them.

 

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I know that if I'm out and about and I get the notification email, I'll go out and try for the FTF. But if I miss the email or receive it after I'm already home and someone else gets the FTF, then I'll save the cache for a particular day, whether to fill in a calendar day or for an upcoming time-specific souvenir. I've cached out my local area, so I have to travel a bit to make new finds. When a new cache is posted locally, I have to decide whether to save it for a rainy day, or go ahead and log it while I can.

Sometimes they go missing before I can log it. :-( But at the moment, I've decided I'm not going to be a FTF hound anymore.

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36 minutes ago, Mineral2 said:

I know that if I'm out and about and I get the notification email, I'll go out and try for the FTF. But if I miss the email or receive it after I'm already home and someone else gets the FTF, then I'll save the cache for a particular day, whether to fill in a calendar day or for an upcoming time-specific souvenir. I've cached out my local area, so I have to travel a bit to make new finds. When a new cache is posted locally, I have to decide whether to save it for a rainy day, or go ahead and log it while I can.

Sometimes they go missing before I can log it. :-( But at the moment, I've decided I'm not going to be a FTF hound anymore.

 

Well, I don't have an i-phone, and rely on my computer.  Doesn't automatically update to my GPSr.  Got an FTF on a multi that four cachers DNFed the previous night...   A couple of interesting nearby caches showed up recently.  But they've been FTFed.  I'll save them for another day.  No need to rush out,.  They've already been found.

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