What is "critical mass" for a cache type?

[+user13371]

At the moment there are fewer than 150 "beacon" caches worldwide. Though the Wherigo cache type has been around a lot longer, there are fewer than 950 of those.

 

I'm not going out of m way to look for those, there just aren't any listed around here. Just pondering how many of a given cache type there has to be before they're considered "common" cache types.

[+John in Valley Forge]

At the moment there are fewer than 150 "beacon" caches worldwide. Though the Wherigo cache type has been around a lot longer, there are fewer than 950 of those.

 

I'm not going out of m way to look for those, there just aren't any listed around here. Just pondering how many of a given cache type there has to be before they're considered "common" cache types.

 

I don't know about critical mass, but the Chirp has not been available for all that long (a few weeks maybe?). It sounds like they are proliferating rapidly. I would think they are a lot easier to set up than a Werigo, too.

[+dfx]

Wherigo's problem isn't critical mass, it's the desolate state of the whole project.

[+JohnnyVegas]

I think the problem with the Wherigo type of cache is that they require a special GPS that many cachers do not want to pay for. This may also become a problem with the garmin chirp in the future.

 

Doing a search there are only 13 Wherigo caches within 100 miles of my location. Now it would appear that the Wherigo cache project has been a failure.

Edited November 16, 2010 by JohnnyVegas

[+addisonbr]

I think the problem with the Wherigo type of cache...

I think it's a couple of things. One, the specialized equipment you mentioned (I have a GPSr that set me back a few hundred bucks once upon a time, and getting a new unit just for Wherigo caches didn't make sense). Two, it's a lot more work to set up a cache - a base level of coding skills is required to navigate the building tools.

 

Those two barriers on both the hiding and seeking side of things make it really hard for any sort of network effect to develop.

[+geodarts]

I think the problem with the Wherigo type of cache is that they require a special GPS that many cachers do not want to pay for. This may also become a problem with the garmin chirp in the future.

 

Doing a search there are only 13 Wherigo caches within 100 miles of my location. Now it would appear that the Wherigo cache project has been a failure.

 

Groundspeak appears to have abandoned their end of the project. But two of my best caches are wherigos (even though I am certainly am not a programer) and I would not yet right it off as a failure. Although wherigos will be limited since they require a bit more work than planting a micro, they have a lot of creative potential.

 

It remains to be seen whether independent developers can rescue Wherigo. I have played it on my iphone. There are players for the droid and other phones. There are alternative Wherigo builders. These platforms are still in development, but they could reach a large base in addition to the pocket pc and garmin units. Groundspeak could yet throw some resources in the project.

 

Chirps, in contrast, are much more proprietary. Although my 62s will support them, I have not been in a rush to give Garmin even more of my money to buy them for caching purposes. Its base seems limited.

Edited November 16, 2010 by mulvaney

[+JohnnyVegas]

I think that the chirp will also be a falilure due the the need of a specialezed GPS. with just over 28,000 caches within 100 miles of me, why bother with buying a new GPS just to find a few chirp caches when they start to show up.

Besides most cacher will not spend more than $5.00 dollars to hide a cache. Why would they spen more for a cache that will got many finds.

[mtbikernate]

I think that the chirp will also be a falilure due the the need of a specialezed GPS. with just over 28,000 caches within 100 miles of me, why bother with buying a new GPS just to find a few chirp caches when they start to show up.

Besides most cacher will not spend more than $5.00 dollars to hide a cache. Why would they spen more for a cache that will got many finds.

 

And that's why I made my chirp cache work as a traditional multi, as well.

 

If someone has a chirp, then they can use it for one of the stages. but if they don't have a chirp, then they can do it the old fashioned way, too.

 

I've had one finder get it using a chirp (the FTF), and then the STF got it without the chirp.

[Clan Riffster]

I think the problem with the Wherigo type of cache is that they require a special GPS

Not quite true. While a cacher can spend several hundred dollars on a shiny new GPSr, doing so is not necessary. There is a list in the Wherigo forums of compatible equipment. Many folks are getting the job done for less than $50, with some clever Ebay shopping. An ancient Windows based PDA, linked to an old Bluetooth GPS receiver does the job dang near as good as a Garmin Oregon 550T. There are also apps available for both iPhones and Droids. For those who insist on using a Garmin, I have yet to meet a Wherigo enthusiast who would not loan out their handhelds for those who want to test drive the Wherigo experience.

[jholly]

I think the problem with the Wherigo type of cache is that they require a special GPS

Not quite true. While a cacher can spend several hundred dollars on a shiny new GPSr, doing so is not necessary. There is a list in the Wherigo forums of compatible equipment. Many folks are getting the job done for less than $50, with some clever Ebay shopping. An ancient Windows based PDA, linked to an old Bluetooth GPS receiver does the job dang near as good as a Garmin Oregon 550T. There are also apps available for both iPhones and Droids. For those who insist on using a Garmin, I have yet to meet a Wherigo enthusiast who would not loan out their handhelds for those who want to test drive the Wherigo experience.

Not to argue, but there is a barrier for entry and once you over come that barrier there is a stunning lack of new experiences. Makes one wonder if overcoming the barrier is worth it.

[+geodarts]

Not to argue, but there is a barrier for entry and once you over come that barrier there is a stunning lack of new experiences. Makes one wonder if overcoming the barrier is worth it.

 

I hate barriers. So I got a pocket pc/gpsr combination (used at a very good price) to run wherigos better than on my Colorado, particularly for those cartridges that were developed before people figured out that certain commands choked the Garmin units.

 

For me, the entry was worth it. Some of the most creative caches I have done have been wherigos. And two of the best caches I have created have been wherigos as well.

 

But critical mass is an interesting thing. The "stunning lack of new experiences" is a factor. Why should people buy a particular unit when there are only a few wherigos to play? Why should people invest time to develop cartridges when there are only a few cachers that play them? Geocaching succeeded in large part because critical mass was reached in many areas of the world. And Groundspeak remains at its center because it has the critical mass that other listing services do not.

 

There are other location-based games that are fun for me, but unless they can reach critical mass, the project will probably fail.

 

With Wherigo, I am hoping that the third party builders and phone-based players will rekindle interest in the format and helped build a kind of critical mass. The iphone app is free, although it still needs work. The Android player and the Open Wig client introduced the game to others. A friend played one of my cartridges with the iphone app, but as far as I know, nobody has played my cartridges with the Droid. Still, this development has almost, but not yet, made me think about creating some new Wherigo caches.

 

But Garmin appears to have stepped away from it by deciding not to include Wherigo in the 62 series. And its been awhile since Groundspeak has made any sort of updates, fixes, or development. So we'll see if critical mass can be reached.

Edited November 16, 2010 by mulvaney

[Clan Riffster]

Not to argue, but there is a barrier for entry

No argument here. Getting a Wherigo icon in your found list does take a bit of effort. How much effort, and how much cost is ultimately up to the individual. $50 or $500, or somewhere in between. They all accomplish the same thing. As for new experiences, I really can't speak to that. A Wherigo cache is a vastly different experience than any other type, but if there are none within a zillion miles of you, then you might never know how different they are. It kinda reminds me of how the old timers talk about the early days of caching, and how they would drive for miles and miles, just to find one new cache. I see the same thing happening with Wherigos. I know I've driven across the state several times just to do one.

 

I'm one of those guys who believes that average log length is an indicator for measuring how grand an adventure a cacher had. If there is any truth to my theory, my Wherigo caches seem to be taken quite favorably by the locals.

 

For a cost/benefit analysis, you'll have to make up your own mind.

 

I think if you would try one, you would like it.

[+user13371]

This morning's worldwide beacon count: 128.

Overall worldwide cache count: 1,242,105.

Beacons have pass the 1/10 of 1% mark.

Still a bit of a fringe element, wouldn't you say?

 

Any arbitrary number in mind for critical mass? 1% or 2% of total caches?

Or localizing it, how many do you need within a day's driving distance?

Or combining it locality and time facxtors? A few within a day's travel, and a pattern of new ones popping up within range, weekly or at least monthly?

Edited November 17, 2010 by lee_rimar

[+Scooter Rider]

Another thing to consider is Garmin is well know for today's latest and greatest is tomorrows abandon child.

 

If they were serous about the chirp why did they blind side Groundspeak?

 

If they don't sell enough of them in what they think is reasonable time frame.

 

They will drop them like a hot rock. Leaving a mess before it reaches critical mass .

[+hzoi]

This morning's worldwide beacon count: 128.

Overall worldwide cache count: 1,242,105.

Beacons have pass the 1/10 of 1% mark.

Still a bit of a fringe element, wouldn't you say?

 

not to quibble, but check your math -- it's actually just over 1/100th of a percent or .01%, isn't it?

[+Corfman Clan]

Wherigo's problem isn't critical mass, it's the desolate state of the whole project.

I think so too. I think the reason being that there is no real revenue potential for Groundspeak to invest further in it. Or in other terms, it's ROI is lacking.

[+G & C]

Another thing to consider is Garmin is well know for today's latest and greatest is tomorrows abandon child.

 

If they were serous about the chirp why did they blind side Groundspeak?

 

If they don't sell enough of them in what they think is reasonable time frame.

 

They will drop them like a hot rock. Leaving a mess before it reaches critical mass .

 

What mess could the Chirp possibly leave? Your GPS either works with it, or it doesn't. No mess. It's not an evolving thing. It is what it was built to be. The only thing that might change is others adapting to it, which appears to be happening with the iPhone trying to make a compatibility app already from what I hear.

 

Time will tell, but my Chirp cache isn't going anywhere. And neither is my Chirp TB.

[+addisonbr]

What mess could the Chirp possibly leave? Your GPS either works with it, or it doesn't. No mess. It's not an evolving thing. It is what it was built to be. The only thing that might change is others adapting to it, which appears to be happening with the iPhone trying to make a compatibility app already from what I hear.

 

Time will tell, but my Chirp cache isn't going anywhere. And neither is my Chirp TB.

I'm not saying this is likely, but it's plausible that if they stopped supporting the Chirp, future firmware updates to GPSrs might unintentionally screw with the ability to successfully interact with Chirps. And Garmin might not be motivated to create patches to help a few people using an abandoned technology.

 

Again, not necessarily likely, but that's the possible end game.

 

The Wherigo cache was introduced around the beginning of 2008. The last time the builder was updated was May 2008 - about 2 1/2 years ago. It's not inconceivable to imagine something similar for the Chirp, which would probably put it one screwy firmware update away from big trouble.

[+Scooter Rider]

Another thing to consider is Garmin is well know for today's latest and greatest is tomorrows abandon child.

 

If they were serous about the chirp why did they blind side Groundspeak?

 

If they don't sell enough of them in what they think is reasonable time frame.

 

They will drop them like a hot rock. Leaving a mess before it reaches critical mass .

 

What mess could the Chirp possibly leave? Your GPS either works with it, or it doesn't. No mess. It's not an evolving thing. It is what it was built to be. The only thing that might change is others adapting to it, which appears to be happening with the iPhone trying to make a compatibility app already from what I hear.

 

Time will tell, but my Chirp cache isn't going anywhere. And neither is my Chirp TB.

 

 

Forcing GS to mad scramble to fit them in some how wasn't a bit messy. If they were serous about them for long term. They would have given GS a heads up.

 

And at this point there so new that we have no idea how well or how long they will hold up in the field.

 

My hats off to you as a first adopter some one has to test them in the field.

 

But with Garmins track record of limited support over time. I am not going to rush out and up grade.

 

If a iPhone app happens tomorrow chirp 2.0 will come out needing a new Garmin upgrade.

 

So a cheap iPhone app mite not be a good thing.

And you still need a Garmin to program them something a phone app is not going to do.

 

Garmin is out to make money for its self not others. That's why there in business in the first place.

 

At 20 bucks a pop most likely there not making that much on a chirp. Limited production run for a limited market.

 

The real money will be made on the hope that folks will rush out and buy the latest and greatest GPS.

To use them and to find them.

 

If that doesn't happen or it takes to long to happen they will drop them.

 

As I see it the chirp will more likely leave folks holding the bag then panning out .

[AZcachemeister]

I think the problem with the Wherigo type of cache is that they require a special GPS that many cachers do not want to pay for. This may WILL also become a problem with the garmin chirp in the future.

 

 

FIXED IT.

[+John in Valley Forge]

The thing that gets me about the Chirp caches is how many are rated 5D because you need special equipment (the certain Garmin GPS).

 

By that way of thinking, I can put a Chirp at the end of a dock, directing the seeker to go to a bison tube tied floating buoy a few yard out in a pond. Since you need a rowboat to get to the buoy, 5T.

 

There you have it, a 5 minute 5/5 rating.

[+geodarts]

 

So a cheap iPhone app mite not be a good thing.

 

The app might not be the problem.

 

According to this thread an ANT+ receiver that is required to communicate with the iPhone runs around $79.

 

By comparison you can pick up the iphone PIGO or Wherigo players for droids or other phones for free.

Edited November 19, 2010 by mulvaney

[Clan Riffster]

The thing that gets me about the Chirp caches is how many are rated 5D because you need special equipment (the certain Garmin GPS).

I suspect that will change.

The guidelines have this to say about Wherigo caches:

"A device that can play Wherigo is not considered special equipment."

I'm thinking that Chirps will fall under the same category once they are addressed in the guidelines.

[+ATXTracker]

I really enjoy these discussions. There are lots of good points.

 

First, I think you have to throw out arguments about how many have been placed so far. It's only been a few weeks. 150 compared to Wherigo's 950 I think is actually somewhat impressive. I also think the expense argument is silly so early on. Prices always come down over time. When I bought my first NIC card ($284) to connect to the internet, I remember people saying, who would spend so much money just to get email, when only a few people even have email; why not use a phone, it cost less and more people have one.

 

Prediction: Even if the Chirp device doesn't ultimately catch on, there WILL BE technical advances and new devices that will dramatically change and expand what geocaching is. Ultimately, the best new tech will come from companies trying to make money. There is nothing wrong with a company producing a cool product, and positioning that product to generate revenue.

 

IMO

[+TerraViators]

The chirp just doesn't interest me at all.

[+G & C]

Even if the Chirp itself does not catch on, like it or not, it has introduced a new possibility for geocaching. I'm having fun with it so far.

[+user13371]

... I think you have to throw out arguments about how many have been placed so far. It's only been a few weeks. 150 compared to Wherigo's 950 I think is actually somewhat impressive.

No, it IS about numbers. It's inevitable and necessary to look at the numbers of any new idea to gauge growth. The "critical mass" idea rides on there being enough of these, with new ones showing up often enough, that nobody thinks of it as a fringe element or novelty.

 

As an aside, there's not even 150 yet. As of this morning, there are 141 active beacon caches worldwide; 14 of those placed within the last 7 days. I mis-spoke in an earlier message when I said Chirps had passed 1/10th of 1% mark; at the time I should have written 1/100th of 1%. Today's count is slightly better than 1/88th of 1%.

 

...I also think the expense argument is silly so early on. Prices always come down over time.

Yes - but only for products that have widespread applications, so economies of scale can come into play (like your network card).

 

GPS prices didn't come down over the years because geocaching; that's a tiny segment of GPS use. Geocachers benefit from economies of scale because BILLIONS of chipsets built for OTHER applications happen to have applicability to this sport. That is not the case for Chirp, or ANT+ in general. Chirp is useful to a just tiny segment of the tiny market that is geocaching. ANT+ in general has uses in other areas as well. But those segments combined are not large enough to push the prices down like other mass-market products.

Edited November 20, 2010 by lee_rimar

[+NYPaddleCacher]

 

So a cheap iPhone app mite not be a good thing.

 

The app might not be the problem.

 

According to this thread an ANT+ receiver that is required to communicate with the iPhone runs around $79.

 

By comparison you can pick up the iphone PIGO or Wherigo players for droids or other phones for free.

 

Could you provide a pointer to the iPhone app that'll l'd need to find a Wherigo cache using my phone. On the other hand, the closest Wherigo cache to me is about 35 miles away but I've traveled to a few spots where they were nearby but always have had to exclude them from my PQs because I didn't have the equipment to do them.

[+user13371]

PiGo, Wherigo for the iPhone.

[+user13371]

As of this morning, there are 141 active beacon caches worldwide; 14 of those placed within the last 7 days.

A Good Day For Chirpies! I just looked again, barely 12 hours later -- total is now 148, with 7 going active just today. A blip, or a trend? Edited November 21, 2010 by lee_rimar

[+t4e]

I think the problem with the Wherigo type of cache is that they require a special GPS that many cachers do not want to pay for. This may WILL also become a problem with the garmin chirp in the future.

 

 

FIXED IT.

 

not even close

 

a CHIRP doesn't take any special skill to place out there

 

a Wherigo, at least a good one, takes imagination, time and effort to get it up and running and people can't be bothered/lack knowledge/etc to "invest" any of that to make one

Edited November 21, 2010 by t4e

[+user13371]

T4E -- The folks who "can't be bothered" to invest what it takes to place a good cache (Wherigo or any other type) probably can't be bothered to spend $20 for a Chirp. Willingness to invest (or not) time, imagination, and/or money are just different aspects of the same character traits.

Edited November 21, 2010 by lee_rimar

[+Tequila]

 

.... I have yet to meet a Wherigo enthusiast who would not loan out their handhelds for those who want to test drive the Wherigo experience.

 

 

Absolutely. I own more Wherigo caches (25) than anyone else in Canada and I have lent my unit to many cachers so they could experience the Wherigo.

 

Wherigo enthusiasts are quite passionate about it and I strongly believe we will be the saving grace of Wherigo. Already two independent builders and one independent iPhone player exists.

 

Wherigo caches take a lot of effort but you can do so much more with a Wherigo than you can with a standard cache.

[+geodarts]

Speaking of Chirps and Wherigo, I found Jeremy's blog entry on Noodle Nodes to be interesting -- a chirp like device that was conceived in 2008 as something that would work with Wherigo and geocaching - but became another project that Groundspeak did not pursue.

[+user13371]

I've been watching Chirp placements with a PQ worldwide for active caches placed worldwide, in the previous 7 days: Of the 26 new ones in the past week, only 9 were in the USA. 15 in Western Europe, 1 in S. Korea, and 1 in New Zealand.

[+user13371]

... 22 beacons placed in the last 7 days:

 

1 in Canada

1 in Sweden

3 in England

5 in United States

12 in Germany

Edited November 27, 2010 by lee_rimar