Do you think we will reach 1,000,000 active caches in 2009?

[+Matt_B_Good]

It is getting close. More caches added everyday. I'm thinking we will reach one million active caches before 2009 is over. We got what 85,000 to go?

[+Scubasonic]

It is getting close. More caches added everyday. I'm thinking we will reach one million active caches before 2009 is over. We got what 85,000 to go?

 

Based on the way they are coming out in my area I would not be surprised

 

ScubaSonic

[+Turtle_Sask]

since I started in feb of 09 there was about 650, 000 and now 916,000 in just over half of a year it has grown almost 300,000!!!! This is what you call exponential growth!

[+Sol seaker]

No. I don't.

 

for a while I was keeping track of how many caches were being published per day. It was somewhere around 900 or so.

 

It's been a while since I was checking (a few months) so things might have changed, but we are moving into our winter caching, which means fewer cachers.

We were almost up to 100,000 cachers logging per week in the height of summer, and now we've back down to 88,900. Less people caching, less people playing, less people placing caches. Likely the numbers will drop a bit more as we get further into winter. Especially in the snow states.

 

So, we've got 85 days left in this year. At around 900 caches per day that's 76,500 caches that will be placed by Jan 1st. We need 83,453 to put us over the top.

 

On the other hand, that's only a gap of 6,953 caches.

So if we get 500 people who read this post to put out 14 caches each, we could close that gap.

 

So what do you think the odds of that happening are?

[Skippermark]

Not sure. Around here it's starting to get cold and a lot of people stop caching once that happens, plus people get busy with "back to school" things and caching seems to slow down. In the spring, we see a ton of new caches coming out each week, but there's not too many now.

[+Rainbow Spirit]

I suppose we southern hemisphere cachers need to get a move on and put out more caches!

[+atmospherium]

There are also caches being archived daily, putting that 1,000,000 number further away. I don't think it will happen, but it may be close. Anyway, I'll never find 'em all.

[+Isonzo Karst]

792,137 May 5

 

797,190 May 11 am 842 daily

 

804,108 may 20

 

813,170 may 31

 

898,225 sept 12

 

899,909 sept 14

 

910,640 sept 29

 

916,547 Oct 7 738 daily

 

the rate of new cache publication is falling, and will likely continue to fall as the northern hemisphere goes into winter... late January, early February for 1,000,000.

[+Knight2000]

If the rate stays the same as it has for the past 6 months I would say:

 

Tuesday, January 19, 2010.

 

But... the rate is dropping. I imagine the weather has something to do with this.

[+Team Juniper]

Had a discussion about this with my wife and my prediction was that it could just be done. Even though, as another cacher mentioned, winter is approaching fast and the rate at which new cache are published in the northern hemisphere diminishes, I think there is another effect at work that could make up for that.

 

I've noticed that in countries where caching and placing caches is mainly done by foreigners visiting or living there for part of the year, the locals are starting to notice. So in my case, my parents in law live in Spain, so we visit them a few times a year, I'm seeing way more caches appearing that are placed by locals and I also see more founds by locals. So maybe this kind of effect could just help to get Geocaching to 1 million caches this year, who knows?

[+keehotee]

On the other hand, that's only a gap of 6,953 caches.

So if we get 500 people who read this post to put out 14 caches each, we could close that gap.

 

So what do you think the odds of that happening are?

 

Please. And with encouragement like that, I'm willing to bet 90% of them are drive by film pots.... aaaaaaaaaaaaaaggggghhhhhhhhhhhh

 

 

[+Stargazer22]

No. I don't.

 

for a while I was keeping track of how many caches were being published per day. It was somewhere around 900 or so.

 

It's been a while since I was checking (a few months) so things might have changed, but we are moving into our winter caching, which means fewer cachers.

We were almost up to 100,000 cachers logging per week in the height of summer, and now we've back down to 88,900. Less people caching, less people playing, less people placing caches. Likely the numbers will drop a bit more as we get further into winter. Especially in the snow states.

 

So, we've got 85 days left in this year. At around 900 caches per day that's 76,500 caches that will be placed by Jan 1st. We need 83,453 to put us over the top.

 

On the other hand, that's only a gap of 6,953 caches.

So if we get 500 people who read this post to put out 14 caches each, we could close that gap.

 

So what do you think the odds of that happening are?

 

Anybody know where I can get 6,953 ammo cans CHEAP??

 

I think we'll miss it by about 2 months.

[Mr.Yuck]

792,137 May 5

 

797,190 May 11 am 842 daily

 

804,108 may 20

 

813,170 may 31

 

898,225 sept 12

 

899,909 sept 14

 

910,640 sept 29

 

916,547 Oct 7 738 daily

 

the rate of new cache publication is falling, and will likely continue to fall as the northern hemisphere goes into winter... late January, early February for 1,000,000.

 

Yeah, but it will be summer in Australia and New Zealand. C'mon Aussies, help us out here.