Avian Flu

[+The Forester]

The Scottish Executive has just announced, at a Press conference but not yet on their website, that they have massively increased the area of the surveillance zone from a 10km radius to cover a 2,500 sq km area.

 

The new surveillance area, which they are calling a wild bird risk area, is bounded by:

the South coast of Fife from the 10km area to the Forth Road Bridge;

the area East of the M90 as far North as the Friarton Bridge over the Tay;

the area to the South of the A90 Perth to Dundee;

the area East of the A90 from Dundee to Stonehaven.

 

A dead swan has already been found in the risk area, a metre or two from a cache, and has been reported to the authorities who promptly attended the scene and were shown the locus by the geocacher who found it.

 

The new "wild bird risk area" requires that all dead birds found within the area be reported to the authorities and requires all poultry keepers, whether registered or not, to keep their flocks indoors.

 

The teams of people dealing with the case are now beginning the enormous task of surveilling this huge area.

 

Good luck to 'em!

[+Firth of Forth]

A dead swan has already been found in the risk area, a metre or two from a cache, and has been reported to the authorities who promptly attended the scene and were shown the locus by the geocacher who found it.

 

 

A lady by the name of Tina Brisco (?sp) with what sounded like a germanic accent was reported to be the person who found the dead swan. Noone has logged Anstruther Amble. How do you know she was a geocacher?

 

Update: "Tina Briscoe, 68, who works at St Andrew's University, spotted the dead bird at Cellardyke harbour in Fife." BBC News

Edited April 6, 2006 by Firth of Forth

[+sTeamTraen]

I'd like to start the panic with the Daily Mail style headline "WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!"

 

Surely "Bird flu to cause house price collapse" ?

[+The Forester]

I'm Registered with Defra as a small holder, I do keep a few rare breeds of hens and ducks. over the last few month I have had quite a bit of correspondence from them regarding the possibilty of an outbreak in the Uk. This morning I rang them and have been advised to keep my stock insideas a precaution. Hope this is a one off

Nige

 

You have my sympathy. Last summer I decided that during the winter I'd build a chicken shed and buy a couple of dozen hens. In the autumn, when the H5 thing started spreading Westwards and the EU drafted their contingency plans, I shelved my idea. My design of shed allows for 36 roosting spaces, 24 nesting boxes and sufficient floor space for up to 12 hens to feed from the feed hopper, but it would be too cramped to keep the hens indoors indefinitely. I'd have to kill them off.

 

Faced with the prospect of having to pull their necks if any H5 cases occur within 10km of Forester Towers, I decided to wait until the problem blows over. I'm now glad I did. The 10km radius area declared yesterday lasted less than 24 hours before it was increased 400fold.

[+Nellies Knackers]

So does this mean Da Rubber Chicken can no longer do scottish caches? I hope he doesn't come across any newspaper reading (or picture looking at) lynch mobs

[+freespirit1402]

I'd like to start the panic with the Daily Mail style headline "WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!"

 

Surely "Bird flu to cause house price collapse" ?

 

Has anyone considered simply giving them some beechams?

[+The Forester]

A dead swan has already been found in the risk area, a metre or two from a cache, and has been reported to the authorities who promptly attended the scene and were shown the locus by the geocacher who found it.

 

 

A lady by the name of Tina Brisco (?sp) with what sounded like a germanic accent was reported to be the person who found the dead swan. Noone has logged Anstruther Amble. How do you know she was a geocacher?

 

Update: "Tina Briscoe, 68, who works at St Andrew's University, spotted the dead bird at Cellardyke harbour in Fife." BBC News

 

The question is bizarre!

 

Nobody has suggested that she is a geocacher or that the authorities promptly attended the scene or that the Cellardyke swan was found near a cache.

[+Firth of Forth]

A dead swan has already been found in the risk area, a metre or two from a cache, and has been reported to the authorities who promptly attended the scene and were shown the locus by the geocacher who found it.

 

 

A lady by the name of Tina Brisco (?sp) with what sounded like a germanic accent was reported to be the person who found the dead swan. Noone has logged Anstruther Amble. How do you know she was a geocacher?

 

Update: "Tina Briscoe, 68, who works at St Andrew's University, spotted the dead bird at Cellardyke harbour in Fife." BBC News

 

The question is bizarre!

 

Nobody has suggested that she is a geocacher or that the authorities promptly attended the scene or that the Cellardyke swan was found near a cache.

 

Ok, I've misread your post. So Tina Briscoe isn't a geocacher. So what you are saying is that someone else who is a geocacher found another swan and reported it "to the authorities who promptly attended the scene and were shown the locus by the geocacher who found it."

 

There's no need for such a derogatory reponse to something that I am simply trying to clarify.

[+Moote]

Sun Style headline "Bird Flu - Into my bed for........"

[Lactodorum]

I have been in correspondence with the "mystery" cacher and confirm they have a genuine concern. Although a dead swan was found near the cache I have no reason to archive it at the moment as all the advice I have seen is that "exclusion zones" are meant to prevent the movement etc. of poultry, not humans.

 

AFAIK there is no risk to cachers while in such an area so until I hear to the contrary from DEFRA or similar all caches will remain active.

[Lactodorum]

.....and PLEASE, let's try not to let this degenerate into a "you said - I said" slanging match.

[+Nellies Knackers]

I'm rushing out now to buy lots of this just in case.

[+Simply Paul]

Always good to see a media frenzy. There's a tizzy over 100 people world-wide who've -very sadly- died from a condition you practically have to french-kiss an infected bird to get, yet 1000 women a year die in this country alone from cervical cancer alone. No big fuss about that...

 

I've never eaten bird-meat, but if I did, I wouldn't be letting bird flu put me off - If anything I might eat more to support a UK industry that won't be thanking the media circus that's currently running on three rings.

[+t.a.folk]

 

In the UK last year, there were only 13 reported deaths from flu, and the majority of these were infants or the elderly.

 

Not much comfort for the elderly and carers of infants !

 

I don't know if it is known what age groups would be most affected if there is another pandemic .

The post.W.W .2 flu pandemic was "most deadly for people aged 20 to 40"

Edited April 6, 2006 by t.a.folk

[+Happy Humphrey]

Not much comfort for the elderly and carers of infants !

There's no suggestion that bird flu poses any risk along the lines of the more common flu viruses. There's no need to avoid birds unless you expect to have a lot of very close contact with them.

This isn't a "crisis", despite what the BBC says.

 

HH

[+Learned Gerbil]

The argument goes -

 

1) The 1918 "Spanish" Flu was the most lethal flu in recent history

 

2) It mutated from a bird flu

 

3) It spread between humans

 

4) Humans can catch H5N1 and they die just like victims of the 1918 virus (an aggressive reaction by the immune system destroys the lungs in two days which is why those with the best immune systems die quickest and most often - the 15 to 35 year olds)

 

5) Increased contact between H5N1 and humans increases the chance that a strain of H5N1 that can pass from human to human evolves.

 

6) If H5N1 can pass from human to human an outbreak like 1918 is possible and hundreds of thousand young people in a country like the UK could die.

 

Only one event is needed to make H5N1 a major killer - a mutation that allows humans to spread it. Recent research on the cases in Turkey shows that some of that process has already taken place and the virus has started changing from a harmless bird virus to a lethal human one which is w ythe children in Turkey got the disease so easily compaed wit hcases in the far east.

 

My view is that whilst there is no current danger, and no reason for panic, there is definitly reason for caution.

[+Kitty Hawk]

Good Post LG

[+civilised]

The argument goes -

 

6) If H5N1 can pass from human to human an outbreak like 1918 is possible and hundreds of thousand young people in a country like the UK could die.

 

My view is that whilst there is no current danger, and no reason for panic, there is definitly reason for caution.

 

A recurrence of the Spanish Lady is obviously unwelcome; but, in your view, is there any reason why cachers, in particular, should be concerned ?

 

civilised

[+Learned Gerbil]

No. But it may affect the hobby if movement is restricted, and cachers should be aware of the risks so they can avoid contact they would not have if cachers, and know what to do if come across dead birds - for example - do they need reporting, and who to? I hav had caching days where I have seen more than one dead bird, but that was last summer and we were not on warning at the time.

[+freespirit1402]

I'm rushing out now to buy lots of this just in case.

 

sorry i know this is a serious discussion for many and im not trying to drag it down but i just nearly lost my mouthful of coca cola over the computer screen when i saw this. FANTASTIC! Thankyou to Nellies Knackers for cheering me up after a VERY long day

[+freespirit1402]

and i hope you dont mind ive copied it onto my comp to send to a couple of friends who will find it funny too!

[+civilised]

No. But it may affect the hobby if movement is restricted, and cachers should be aware of the risks so they can avoid contact they would not have if cachers, and know what to do if come across dead birds - for example - do they need reporting, and who to? I hav had caching days where I have seen more than one dead bird, but that was last summer and we were not on warning at the time.

 

Not trying to disparage the seriousness of what's happening - at all - but still not sure of what relevance it is to cachers.

 

Why should movement be restricted ? At the point at which human movement is restricted due to this outbreak we will all, surely, have more to worry about than finding 'lunchboxes in the woods' .

 

civilised

[+The Hancock Clan]

I'm rushing out now to buy lots of this just in case.

 

sorry i know this is a serious discussion for many and im not trying to drag it down but i just nearly lost my mouthful of coca cola over the computer screen when i saw this. FANTASTIC! Thankyou to Nellies Knackers for cheering me up after a VERY long day

 

I'll second that - BRILLIANT! Haven't seen anything as hilarious as that in ages!

[+sTeamTraen]

Why should movement be restricted ? At the point at which human movement is restricted due to this outbreak we will all, surely, have more to worry about than finding 'lunchboxes in the woods' .

 

Precisely. If the virus mutates - and you can tell that the press really, really, really wants it to - it will no longer be a bird/countryside issue. If it were another foot and mouth outbreak, that might well pout a damper on caching. But bird flu will get about just fine without the need for land transport.

 

BTW, I think that even if it does mutate and spread widely, the death toll will almost certainly be a whole lot less than the scaremongers would have us believe. The state of public health, both in terms of people's condition and the availability of medical care, is incomparably better than in 1918, which in turn must have been the worse year to have such an epidemic for 20 years either side, given the massive numbers of sick and injured people from WW1. And simple factors such as the lower numbers of people per household (to say nothing of "children per bed") will also help a lot.

[+Learned Gerbil]

The point is that movement could be restricted without the virus mutating. The virus could devestate the UK poultry industry and destroy a lot of avian wildlife without it killing anyone. That is why movement might be restricted - to protect birds - not to protect us!

 

Why do you think this is a DEFRA issue and not a DH one?

[+The Forester]

OK. Let's clarify.

 

The German-accented lady, who may or may not be a geocacher, phoned SERAD after the civil service 9-5 hours, at 6pm on the evening of Wednesday the 29th of March. No chance of a response at that hour, nor even first thing in the morning. Eventually they showed up at lunchtime, some 18 hours after the first report of the heavily decomposed carcass.

 

They took it away.

 

It arrived at the lab in England on Friday afternoon. DERA, like SERAD, mostly worked civil service hours and there was no chance that anybody was going to do anything about the bird after 5pm on a Friday. After all they'd tested hundreds upon hundreds of birds and every test for H5 had ben negative. Easy to understand how they could become so complacent. There was nothing to indicate that this bird was special. Those people had settled into the 9-5 mentality and were anything but coiled up like a taut spring ready to go into action.

 

The first test on the Monday showed positive for H5. Quite properly, given the importance of not sending any false alarms, they re-ran the test to confirm. Meanwhile the testing was difficult because not only had they delayed for five days, the thing had already been rotting for some time. The proven positive carcass then became an "index" specimen. No scientist would want to ruin their reputation by putting their name to a positve report unless they were absolutely sure of their results. The final tests were not ready until yesterday (Wednesday).

 

By then the key players were engrossed in a simulated exercise which was designed to emulate the real thing which was actually happening! Once they were all agreed that they had the real deal, they initiated the contingency plan.

 

The pre-prepared plan of establishing the control zones was put into action.

 

This morning they got their relevant experts together to discuss the nittygritty details of the actual case. Meanwhile, we were receiving some conflicting information. One report said there were no poultry farms within the 3Km zone, another report said there were nine. Neither of the two largest poultry farms in the area heard anything whatsoever from SERAD. The first they knew that they were under restrictions was when tv crews showed up and told them!

 

The owner of the only caches in the 3km zone quite properly decided to temporarily suspend them pending clarification of just what the situation actually is. I decided that my cache, which is inside the 10km zone, but outside the 3m one, should remain open, but I kept a close eye on developments through the day and was ready to reverse my initial decision rapidly if necessary.

 

Confirmation of the positive result of the H5N1 tests was delayed by the government departments, but was leaked to the media by the NFU and the RSPB. The Scottish Office press conference was interesting. They tacitly admitted that the 9-5/Mon-Fri policy is not well adapted to dealing with a dynamic situation like the spread of disease through wild bird flocks. They also said that it is probable that the dead bird was a local, not a recent migrant. Clearly with the bird having been dead for days in the last week of last month and with the one week incubation period to take into account, the disease has probably been present in Fife for several weeks by now.

 

It was obvious that the arbitrary 10km zone was a pile of old pants and would have to be replaced or augmented with a much more realistic guess as to how widely the disease might have spread by now. They announced a new "wild bird risk zone", which covers most of Fife, Kinross, and much of Angus and reaches up into Aberdeenshire. This risk zone is outside the 10km zone, of course.

 

Meanwhile, a cacher remembered having seen a dead bird at a cache which is within the wild bird risk zone. It was dead at around the time that the Anstruther bird was probably going down with the flu. Quite properly he tried to get in touch with the owner. After all, who would want to cause someone, perhaps with a dog or child, to stumble through the reeds onto the soggy corpse of a potentially flu-infected bird when such a trap could so easily be avoided by the simple expedient of placing a temporary suspension pending recovery of the swan by a SERAD rep. Small children have a tendency to explore strange objects with their fingers and they have a tendency to put the fingers in their mouths. That's one of very few ways for avian flu to be transmitted from bird to man. Several kids have succumbed to H5N1 in Vietnam and China exactly that way. Dogs have a tendency to use their muzzles and mouths to explore such things. Hey, there's another great way to enhance the minimal chances of virus transmission from bird to mammal.

 

Unfortunately, the owner is absent this week, on holiday, and was unable to temporarily suspend the cache pending removal of the possibly infected body.

 

Fortunately, SERAD has got the message that time is of the essence and they rapidly responded to the scene and removed the carcass, unlike the Anstruther case last week. The bird is probably uninfected, but there is no valid reason to take a risk with something like that.

 

We now have dozens of live caches within the risk zone, not just the three that we had within the 10km zone this morning. I see no reason to change any caching habits, other than keeping a good lookout for dead or dying birds and temporarily suspending any caches which are found to have a potentially virus-infected dead bird in the immediate vicinity. Common sense, really.

[+Learned Gerbil]

Time being of the escence is why back in the late 70's when I worked for MAFF we practised FMD outbreaks at weekends so there were experienced staff on hand to deal with any outbreak of FMD, SVD or Fowl Pest or whatever over the weekend. There were four teams and we took it in turns to work a weekend and during our week on we were on call for evenings and nights as well. I didn't work on FMD etc the rest of the time. I was busy certifying exports of pet food from a large company in Melton Mowbray, but I wanted the overtime, and MAFF wanted as many staff as possible trained and avaialble to act in a disease outbreak.

 

When I volunteered to transfer to DEFRA during the 2002 outbreak I spoke to someone at DEFRA who couldn't believe we did that back then. As it turned out I got a better offer fromelsewhere and went to work for a charity for a short while, but it was obvious that cutbacks in the 80's had destroyed the MAFF culture of immediate action I had been part of over 25 yars ago.

 

On the more relevant point - I agree vigilance is more important than anything else.

Edited April 6, 2006 by Learned Gerbil

[+sTeamTraen]

The point is that movement could be restricted without the virus mutating. The virus could devestate the UK poultry industry and destroy a lot of avian wildlife without it killing anyone. That is why movement might be restricted - to protect birds - not to protect us!

 

Why do you think this is a DEFRA issue and not a DH one?

 

I don't see that there's any benefit to be obtained from restricting movements of people, when the virus is quite capable of moving thousands of miles by air. If cows could fly (insert your own joke here) then F&M would have spread itself a lot quicker too. Movement restrictions made sense there but they don't add much value with bird flu.

 

Not that whether something makes doesn't sense necessarily guarantees that frightened bureaucrats will avoid doing it anyway (cf banning nail clippers on aircraft, killing all animals within X km of an F&M infected farm, etc). I expect there'll be a "no-fly zone" declared soon. Any bird violating it will be shot down...

Edited April 7, 2006 by sTeamTraen

[+The Forester]

[+Nellies Knackers]

I'm rushing out now to buy lots of this just in case.

 

sorry i know this is a serious discussion for many and im not trying to drag it down but i just nearly lost my mouthful of coca cola over the computer screen when i saw this. FANTASTIC! Thankyou to Nellies Knackers for cheering me up after a VERY long day

 

I'll second that - BRILLIANT! Haven't seen anything as hilarious as that in ages!

Not my work, I just 'borrowed' it from another forum as I found it funny.

I like the cuckoo clock too Forester.

[+freespirit1402]

its up on our staff notice board at work

[+Moote]

Birds are nothing but trouble!

[Mittellegi]

Birds are nothing but trouble!

Fairy tale:

 

Once upon a time a man asked a girl to marry him...

 

She sais no, and he lived happilly ever after

[+Firth of Forth]

Birds are nothing but trouble!

Fairy tale:

 

Once upon a time a man asked a girl to marry him...

 

She sais no, and he lived happilly ever after

 

I'd like to point out that these sexist jokes aren't very funny.

[+Kitty Hawk]

I don't seem to be able to parallel park my car anymore and find it easier to read a map upside down and everyone is complaining about me talking incessantly.

 

I'm worried I might have...

Edited April 8, 2006 by Kitty Hawk

[+Kryten]

This could be serious, has there been a marked change in your attitude to chocolate

[+The Hornet]

I came across a pheasant to day that I can confirm died of bird flu...

 

 

 

 

 

 

It "flu" into the front of my car

 

 

I'll get me coat.............

[+Nellies Knackers]

[+scaw]

here's another one proof bird flue has hit our shores ( and i can see the funy side cause we own a 500 acher farm)

 

[+rutson]

It's rife in Paris:

 

[+The Forester]

[+bhodisatva]

A lion, a bear and a chicken were sitting round a campfire having a brew and a natter. Testosterone soon rises and talk gets round to who's biggest and hardest. The bear stands up and says "when i roar, everyone stands up and takes notice, the ground trembles and humans go weak at the knees". The lion not to be outdone stands up and says "when i roar, everyone runs for their lives, the ground trembles and fear is instilled in everyone within earshot". The chicken looks at them both, stands up and says "your both pussies.................

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

all i have to do is sneeze and everyone craps themselves"