Is Geocaching.com a mom&pop store waiting for a Walmart?

March 28, 2007

I am worried about the increasing problems accessing geocaching.com and the future of the site. I am making the assumption that the site is growing faster than the premium memberships that largely fund it.

Here is my concern.

Geocaching is still in its infancy. It just hit 1,000,000 members worldwide. This is an insignificant percentage of the world's population at present, yet it is growing exponentially. I suspect that there will be a "blowout" event that shoots geocaching into the public consciousness. Maybe a movie. Maybe a celebrity. Maybe cell phone geocaching. Who knows? But suddenly there will be another million, or two million or 10 million members!

And THAT is when the demands on the site will be too much to handle.

And, THAT is when Google, or Microsoft, or Nextel or some other large corporation will take over the "sport". And geocaching will change forever.

Are YOU concerned, or am I just paranoid?

2.9k · March 28, 2007

I am worried about the increasing problems accessing geocaching.com and the future of the site. I am making the assumption that the site is growing faster than the premium memberships that largely fund it.

Here is my concern.

Geocaching is still in its infancy. It just hit 1,000,000 members worldwide. This is an insignificant percentage of the world's population at present, yet it is growing exponentially. I suspect that there will be a "blowout" event that shoots geocaching into the public consciousness. Maybe a movie. Maybe a celebrity. Maybe cell phone geocaching. Who knows? But suddenly there will be another million, or two million or 10 million members!

And THAT is when the demands on the site will be too much to handle.

And, THAT is when Google, or Microsoft, or Nextel or some other large corporation will take over the "sport". And geocaching will change forever.

Are YOU concerned, or am I just paranoid?

Very much so.

18.9k · March 28, 2007

Your paranoid.

Lots of that big pubiclity has already happened.

What you perceive as exponential growth is not - Fizzy put the numbers together on that a while back.

TPTB and consultants are actively working on a fix to make the site easily scalable to future growth. Will take several more months. Several threads and notes on that.

I think the number of premium members has grown fairly steadily over time. While I am certain nobody is getting grossly rich, I think they have sufficient funds to grow the site easily. At least that is the goal of - See above.

Access to the site is really not that bad - easily available and fully functional well over 95% of the time. Could and should be better but not tramuatic (to most).

Relax - breathe..... <_<

March 28, 2007

One of the things you have to remember is that it is 1 million accounts created. That does not equal 1 million members, and no where near that many active members.

Some people have multiple accounts for various reasons, and many people sign up, check it out and never come back.

I believe I ran the numbers a while back... the day I signed up there were 543 accounts created on that day. Of those, I believe only about 154 have been active in the last six months. That's only 28% of the accounts created. This is probably a bit of a stretch, but if that is the average, then there are only about 288,549 active cachers in the world today (28% of 1,030,531 accounts as of 1:55pm eastern, 28 Mar)

No worries... just have fun!!

------------

Edited to correct numbers.

Edited March 28, 2007 by BRTango

2k · March 28, 2007

21.9k · March 28, 2007

The following is my personal opinion as a site volunteer, and is not "official" in any way.

I have known Jeremy and his partners personally for about four years now. Never once have I gotten any hint of a business strategy other than growing Groundspeak as a fun little private company. Now, of course, if there are plans in the works to the contrary, I wouldn't know about them and it is none of my business. But my gut tells me it isn't likely to happen.

If someday we woke up and saw this on the front page of the website, what would happen? Well, GeoGoogle would immediately need to deal with the fact that much of the day to day public functions of the website is performed by unpaid volunteers like myself. Listing caches, archiving caches that have problems, answering questions, working with land managers -- I am *happy* to do all of this for free as a Groundspeak volunteer, because I believe in the sport and the company's approach to it.

My willingness to be a volunteer for GeoGoogle would evaporate immediately. I suspect that many other volunteers would feel the same way. Without our work, caches would get listed in off-limits nature preserves, or without a permit in parks that require one. Maintenance problems would go unaddressed. More land managers would ban geocaching because the character of the relationship had changed. More geocachers would move to other listing sites, and new sites would pop up.

Or, GeoGoogle could pay the dozens of volunteers for the dozens of hours we put into this job each week. Way to blow the profitability projections. Frankly, I don't see that happening.

The site volunteers are Groundspeak's Poison Pill.

5.3k · March 28, 2007

Geocaching is still in its infancy. It just hit 1,000,000 members worldwide. This is an insignificant percentage of the world's population at present, yet it is growing exponentially. I suspect that there will be a "blowout" event that shoots geocaching into the public consciousness.

First, geocaching is not now, nor has it ever, grown exponentially. There is a thread about that somewhere..

Ah, here it is. My latest update.

The growth rate in user accounts created did have something happen about mid-2005, and since then the growth rate has been higher. But the rate of cache placements has not undergone a similar surge.

I would say that the growth of the site has been really fairly predictable, overall.

March 28, 2007

PHP Fatal error: Maximum execution time of 45 seconds exceeded in

E:\Inetpub\forums\gc\ips_kernel\class_db_mysql.php on line 457

That is the message I got trying to access this site a few minutes ago,

at 1 am CDT!

I hope the fix is coming soon!

John

2.3k · March 28, 2007

2 things.

1: it will be Disney not Google that buys Groundspeak.

2: Platinum memberships are not included in the member counts. Their numbers are counted on the "other" site. There is no concern. These are not the droids you are looking for. You can go about your business.

March 28, 2007

OK. I see the consensus is that I shouldn't fret about this.

(I can't believe all the replies I got already; and it's barely past 5am)

You see, I really enjoy geocaching and support the website with a premium membership. I wish more people did. I was immediately hooked and even continued geocaching when I broke my leg (while geocaching). This "sport" is addicting! And I find it hard to believe that its not going to "take off" one day. Is geocaching the next Hula Hoop or Trivial Pursuit?

I also worry about the "waiting for geocaching.com" and "server busy" messages. I don't remember ever getting these messages when I joined in June, and now I get them very often. A lot of businesses fail due to their own success; not being able to cope with the increasing demands of growth.

I know a lot is being done to improve the website. And I am confident that these problems will iron themselves out through the efforts of all involved, provided that the growth spurt I worry about doesn't happen.

So, I guess I'll forget my worries and sleep better tomorrow night.

9.5k · March 28, 2007

PHP Fatal error: Maximum execution time of 45 seconds exceeded in

E:\Inetpub\forums\gc\ips_kernel\class_db_mysql.php on line 457

That is the message I got trying to access this site a few minutes ago,

at 1 am CDT!

I hope the fix is coming soon!

John

Congratulations!

An off topic post IN before the 10th post.

March 28, 2007

PHP Fatal error: Maximum execution time of 45 seconds exceeded in

E:\Inetpub\forums\gc\ips_kernel\class_db_mysql.php on line 457

That is the message I got trying to access this site a few minutes ago,

at 1 am CDT!

I hope the fix is coming soon!

John

Congratulations!

An off topic post IN before the 10th post.

^Pot, meet kettle.. . . . .

9.5k · March 28, 2007

PHP Fatal error: Maximum execution time of 45 seconds exceeded in

E:\Inetpub\forums\gc\ips_kernel\class_db_mysql.php on line 457

That is the message I got trying to access this site a few minutes ago,

at 1 am CDT!

I hope the fix is coming soon!

John

Congratulations!

An off topic post IN before the 10th post.

^Pot, meet kettle.. . . . .

...and meet teapot. I was in after 10.

March 28, 2007

One of the things you have to remember is that it is 1 million accounts created. That does not equal 1 million members, and no where near that many active members.

Some people have multiple accounts for various reasons, and many people sign up, check it out and never come back.

I believe I ran the numbers a while back... the day I signed up there were 543 accounts created on that day. Of those, I believe only about 154 have been active in the last six months. That's only 28% of the accounts created. This is probably a bit of a stretch, but if that is the average, then there are only about 288,549 active cachers in the world today (28% of 1,030,531 accounts as of 1:55pm eastern, 28 Mar)

No worries... just have fun!!

------------

Edited to correct numbers.

The numbers for the day I joined GC.com

On 28 June 2005, 543 user accounts were created.

As of 28 March 2007 the status of those accounts are as follows:

- 150 accounts were created but never used beyond the first day.

- 239 accounts were created and used at least once after the first day, but have not been used in at least 6 months.

- 154 accounts were created and have been accessed in the past 6 months.

Assuming this day is like any other and the averages hold true, then only 28% of accounts created are still active. As of 1355 28 March 07 there were 1,030,531 existing accounts on geocaching.com. 28% of that is 288,549 active accounts.

April 2, 2007

how did you find out about the accounts that were started on the day you started yours, that would be a cool thing to see

April 2, 2007

***My willingness to be a volunteer for GeoGoogle would evaporate immediately. I suspect that many other volunteers would feel the same way. Without our work, caches would get listed in off-limits nature preserves, or without a permit in parks that require one. Maintenance problems would go unaddressed. ***

Remember, this has grown to a worldwide hobby / sport and maybe Geocaching has already grown beyond a hobby system...and needs the real power of "GeoGoogle's" mega-system to meet future needs...like 1000's of Geocacher connections at once...with their hardware / software engineers right there to address problems.

There are many experienced Geocachers out there and if you / they stopped being a volunteer, I am sure there would be others to fill your shoes. I see people asking on the boards many times on how to become a volunteer.

I am sure that some of you have begun at the start of this hobby / sport...but it seems odd that you / they would be unwilling to see it's success at possibly another level.

Also, $30 bucks is $30 bucks whether I pay Geocaching.com or "GeoGoogle" ... it is still $30 bucks.

If Geocaching.com is bought out in the future, maybe the current staff can go as a package deal to over see this hobby / sport...and have programmers at their fingertips to fix and add features.

Sometimes people resist change...And I can be accused of that myself.

April 2, 2007

how did you find out about the accounts that were started on the day you started yours, that would be a cool thing to see

It was a bit of a pain... handjamming mostly. I went to my profile, and changed the number down and up to find the first and last accounts created on that particular day (ie. From user # 411328 to user # 411871)

Then I went through profile page, by profile page (all 543) and looked at the last date they signed in. I made three lists 1) Created account and never used 2) Used at least 1 day after account creation and 3) used within the last six months.

This took quite a while... but hey... work was dull that day anyhow :rolleyes:

A note though... just because they've logged on in the past six months doesn't mean that they are active cachers and just because they haven't logged on in the past six months doesn't mean that they are NOT active cachers. But I figure that probably averages out.

Since you joined earlier than I did there aren't nearly as many accounts created so should go faster if you choose to work the numbers. If you do I'd be curious to see if you come up with the same percentages I did.

The accounts created on the same day as you joined are 121562 to 121920 for a total of 358.

24.7k · April 2, 2007

...And, THAT is when Google, or Microsoft, or Nextel or some other large corporation will take over the "sport". And geocaching will change forever.

Are YOU concerned, or am I just paranoid?

Actually yes I am concerned, but not enough to lose sleep.

It's like this. Geocaching.com is commercial. There is no debate about this. It's a fact. However they have a quasi non commercial angle that keeps them viable. They work with volunteers, keep the basics free etc.

If geocaching.com sold out to "Fat Cat Corporate" most cachers would 'wait and see'. The moment fat cat corporate stuck their foot in their corporate mouth (and with a corpration it's always a function of when a numbers type gets power) the other geocaching sites will take off as cachers stopped waiting and reacted. We will be split a hundred directions until the quasi chaos organizes itself. Geocaching.com would die as we know it. Geocaching would go on and perhaps some good things come out of it. Things I'd like to see but haven't.

You are not paranoid. Every business hits a spot in it's growth cycle where they face some tough decisions on how to pay for the equipment, staff, and other things that growth demands of a business but which sales don't cover. GC.com is there now (my opinion). If they had an easy fix they would have done it. This is the point at which GC.com if they had a brain (and they do or they would not be growing enough to have the problem) they would be considering all options including the one that concerns you. The choices they make can keep geocaching.com viable until the next growth cycle hits and they face it again, or it can start the downward spiral. It's no easy problem to solve.

In the long run this activity at all levels, will belong to it's members. It may be a rocky road before we get there.

Edited April 2, 2007 by Renegade Knight

April 2, 2007

how did you find out about the accounts that were started on the day you started yours, that would be a cool thing to see

It was a bit of a pain... handjamming mostly. I went to my profile, and changed the number down and up to find the first and last accounts created on that particular day (ie. From user # 411328 to user # 411871)

Then I went through profile page, by profile page (all 543) and looked at the last date they signed in. I made three lists 1) Created account and never used 2) Used at least 1 day after account creation and 3) used within the last six months.

This took quite a while... but hey... work was dull that day anyhow

A note though... just because they've logged on in the past six months doesn't mean that they are active cachers and just because they haven't logged on in the past six months doesn't mean that they are NOT active cachers. But I figure that probably averages out.

Since you joined earlier than I did there aren't nearly as many accounts created so should go faster if you choose to work the numbers. If you do I'd be curious to see if you come up with the same percentages I did.

The accounts created on the same day as you joined are 121562 to 121920 for a total of 358.

Ok... so my morning was boring enough to run the numbers down for 04 May 2003. My afternoon however is a bunch of meetings... so no more for now.

The numbers I came up with are as follows:

- 71 accounts were created but never used beyond the first day.

- 197 accounts were created and used at least once after the first day, but have not been used in at least 6 months.

- 90 accounts were created and have been accessed in the past 6 months.

For a total of 25% of the accounts created on that day have been active in the past 6 months.

Adding these together with 28 June 2005 we get:

- 221 accounts were created but never used beyond the first day.

- 436 accounts were created and used at least once after the first day, but have not been used in at least 6 months.

- 244 accounts were created and have been accessed in the past 6 months.

Assuming these days are like any other and the averages hold true, then only 27% of accounts created are still active. As of 1330 02 April 07 there were 1,036,722 existing accounts on geocaching.com. 27% of that is 279,915 active accounts.

6.5k · April 4, 2007

I am worried about the increasing problems accessing geocaching.com and the future of the site. I am making the assumption that the site is growing faster than the premium memberships that largely fund it.

Here is my concern.

Geocaching is still in its infancy. It just hit 1,000,000 members worldwide. This is an insignificant percentage of the world's population at present, yet it is growing exponentially. I suspect that there will be a "blowout" event that shoots geocaching into the public consciousness. Maybe a movie. Maybe a celebrity. Maybe cell phone geocaching. Who knows? But suddenly there will be another million, or two million or 10 million members!

And THAT is when the demands on the site will be too much to handle.

And, THAT is when Google, or Microsoft, or Nextel or some other large corporation will take over the "sport". And geocaching will change forever.

Are YOU concerned, or am I just paranoid?

The only way I could see google or whatever taking over is if they start giving out prizes/rewards for listing caches with them. (that or paying for and creating all the caches themselves) Otherwise there's no way to take over all the caches (and assocatiated maintance) owned by THOUSANDS of different people. And even if google did pay out for listings, they'd have to keep doing it... If they stopped people would gravitate to whatever site provides the most features/caches with the lowest fee (or maybe no fee).

April 4, 2007

how did you find out about the accounts that were started on the day you started yours, that would be a cool thing to see

It was a bit of a pain... handjamming mostly. I went to my profile, and changed the number down and up to find the first and last accounts created on that particular day (ie. From user # 411328 to user # 411871)

Then I went through profile page, by profile page (all 543) and looked at the last date they signed in. I made three lists 1) Created account and never used 2) Used at least 1 day after account creation and 3) used within the last six months.

This took quite a while... but hey... work was dull that day anyhow

A note though... just because they've logged on in the past six months doesn't mean that they are active cachers and just because they haven't logged on in the past six months doesn't mean that they are NOT active cachers. But I figure that probably averages out.

Since you joined earlier than I did there aren't nearly as many accounts created so should go faster if you choose to work the numbers. If you do I'd be curious to see if you come up with the same percentages I did.

The accounts created on the same day as you joined are 121562 to 121920 for a total of 358.

Ok... so my morning was boring enough to run the numbers down for 04 May 2003. My afternoon however is a bunch of meetings... so no more for now.

The numbers I came up with are as follows:

- 71 accounts were created but never used beyond the first day.

- 197 accounts were created and used at least once after the first day, but have not been used in at least 6 months.

- 90 accounts were created and have been accessed in the past 6 months.

For a total of 25% of the accounts created on that day have been active in the past 6 months.

Adding these together with 28 June 2005 we get:

- 221 accounts were created but never used beyond the first day.

- 436 accounts were created and used at least once after the first day, but have not been used in at least 6 months.

- 244 accounts were created and have been accessed in the past 6 months.

Assuming these days are like any other and the averages hold true, then only 27% of accounts created are still active. As of 1330 02 April 07 there were 1,036,722 existing accounts on geocaching.com. 27% of that is 279,915 active accounts.

Since I like numbers, I ran through the ones for July 31, 2001:

74 accounts created but never used beyond the first day

49 accounts created and used at least once but have not been used in at least 6 months

36 accounts created and have been accesses in the past 6 months

2 accounts with empty information- numbers unused

1 account with a different start date (Id# in sequence for July 31st, start date = June 03, 2001) Odd.

-Jen

18.9k · April 4, 2007

hmmmmm - interesting

125 created Jan 30 2002

85 with zero finds

Just 29 logged in during the past 6 months

April 5, 2007

how did you find out about the accounts that were started on the day you started yours, that would be a cool thing to see

It was a bit of a pain... handjamming mostly. I went to my profile, and changed the number down and up to find the first and last accounts created on that particular day (ie. From user # 411328 to user # 411871)

Then I went through profile page, by profile page (all 543) and looked at the last date they signed in. I made three lists 1) Created account and never used 2) Used at least 1 day after account creation and 3) used within the last six months.

This took quite a while... but hey... work was dull that day anyhow

A note though... just because they've logged on in the past six months doesn't mean that they are active cachers and just because they haven't logged on in the past six months doesn't mean that they are NOT active cachers. But I figure that probably averages out.

Since you joined earlier than I did there aren't nearly as many accounts created so should go faster if you choose to work the numbers. If you do I'd be curious to see if you come up with the same percentages I did.

The accounts created on the same day as you joined are 121562 to 121920 for a total of 358.

Ok... so my morning was boring enough to run the numbers down for 04 May 2003. My afternoon however is a bunch of meetings... so no more for now.

The numbers I came up with are as follows:

- 71 accounts were created but never used beyond the first day.

- 197 accounts were created and used at least once after the first day, but have not been used in at least 6 months.

- 90 accounts were created and have been accessed in the past 6 months.

For a total of 25% of the accounts created on that day have been active in the past 6 months.

Adding these together with 28 June 2005 we get:

- 221 accounts were created but never used beyond the first day.

- 436 accounts were created and used at least once after the first day, but have not been used in at least 6 months.

- 244 accounts were created and have been accessed in the past 6 months.

Assuming these days are like any other and the averages hold true, then only 27% of accounts created are still active. As of 1330 02 April 07 there were 1,036,722 existing accounts on geocaching.com. 27% of that is 279,915 active accounts.

Since I like numbers, I ran through the ones for July 31, 2001:

74 accounts created but never used beyond the first day

49 accounts created and used at least once but have not been used in at least 6 months

36 accounts created and have been accesses in the past 6 months

2 accounts with empty information- numbers unused

1 account with a different start date (Id# in sequence for July 31st, start date = June 03, 2001) Odd.

-Jen

hmmmmm - interesting

125 created Jan 30 2002

85 with zero finds

Just 29 logged in during the past 6 months

So adding up all these numbers, we get a 26% retention rate. As of 1033am (eastern US) there were 1039778 accounts created. Using the same assumption I have above, that leaves us with the following: 26% of 1,039,778 is 270,342 accounts active in the last 6 months.

Is Geocaching.com a mom&pop store waiting for a Walmart?

Recommended Posts

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment

Link to comment