Trackables/pathtags probability test

[+RozenGT]

Has anyone tried or thought of trying to figure out what the chance of a cacher finding a trackable or pathtag in an average cache is? It must be fairly easy to figure this out for travel bugs, geocoins, pathtags, etc. Any input would be appreciated. Thanks.

 

Edit for length.

Edited April 6, 2010 by RozenGT

[+Vater_Araignee]

Path tags.

for me currently it is 1 in 35.5.

unless you crud I didn't log then it is 1 in 39.

Coins and bugs, don't know I have ignored more than a few.

If you try to take all the coins and bug that exist to calculate the number you are going to be wrong.

Some can be discovered only outside of caches, some have been lost, abducted or never released.

[+Chrysalides]

Has anyone tried or thought of trying to figure out what the chance of a cacher finding a trackable or pathtag in an average cache is? It must be fairly easy to figure this out for travel bugs, geocoins, pathtags, etc. Any input would be appreciated. Thanks.

You'd need to define "average cache" I think your results might be region specific.

 

I'm about 5 times more likely to find a trackable than a pathtag in a cache around here. And there are only 3 other cachers who leave pathtags, so the picking is pretty slim. Chances of finding a trackable in a cache large enough for trackables is actually pretty decent - 25% or better, I'd say.

[+RozenGT]

Has anyone tried or thought of trying to figure out what the chance of a cacher finding a trackable or pathtag in an average cache is? It must be fairly easy to figure this out for travel bugs, geocoins, pathtags, etc. Any input would be appreciated. Thanks.

You'd need to define "average cache" I think your results might be region specific.

 

I'm about 5 times more likely to find a trackable than a pathtag in a cache around here. And there are only 3 other cachers who leave pathtags, so the picking is pretty slim. Chances of finding a trackable in a cache large enough for trackables is actually pretty decent - 25% or better, I'd say.

 

Thanks to you both. Someone could do the study regionalised, I guess... Does anyone know of someone who has actually done a study like this?

[Keystone]

I am moving this thread from the Geocaching Topics forum to the Travel Bug forum.

[+BlueDeuce]

It would require database access to the gc.com system to get the most accurate numbers. Being a lowly premium member I can tell you that starting from the Tel-Aviv Small Travel Bug Hotel there are 179 caches within 500 miles that have at least one Traveler. Within the first 500 caches only 69 hold at least one.

 

Edit: that's just from the listings. No guarantee the bug is actually still there.

Edited April 7, 2010 by BlueDeuce

[+Eartha]

Pathtags are not in the equation, they are not trackable on www.geocaching.com. Then take into consideration that a lot of TBs are not where they say they are. I don't know of anyone who would rather sit home doing a study, than be out actually looking.

[Wildie]

what do u do when u find a path tag please ?

[+BlueDeuce]

Do a google search on pathtags and you'll find their site and logging instructions.

[+Gitchee-Gummee]

what do u do when u find a path tag please ?

Keep it if you like. Quite a few collect them. Most collectible (IMO) are those traded face-to-face.

You can move them to another cache if you desire (?).

 

In reality, they are simply signature tokens, not unlike a printed card or wooden nickle; just prettier, longer lasting and a wee bit more expensive. Trading them on that website is not uncommon.

 

Just a reminder, they are not trackable on geocaching.com and have no direct connection to the website.