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Gas Prices Impacting Your Geocaching?


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Oil will never run out.  No commodity in human history ever has.  When oil gets scarce enough, we will already have developed alternatives.

 

If oil is $200 a barrel, it starts to become worthwhile to develop lots of energy sources, from fuel cells charged by nuclear-generated electricity through to wind, solar, tide, and wave power, plus I'm sure lots of stuff we haven't thought of yet.

 

Don't be ridiculous. You may be right that technology will advance to keep us driving, but petroleum is nevertheless a finite resource, and it will run out.

That's not ridiculous, it's simple economics. But because you don't seem to understand the way he put it, maybe this page will make it easier for you to understand.

The laws of economics don't apply to oil because the US Government welfares the oil companies in the US. If the laws of economics did apply we would be paying what the UK does.

 

It is also good to know so many people have crystal balls that allows them to see how long it will take for viable alternatives to be developed.

Sorry, but the basic laws of economics apply to everything. Just like the laws of physics, you can try to manipulate them all you want, but they WILL eventually prevail, like it or not.

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From the Forum Guidelines:

Keep on topic: Responses to a particular thread should be on-topic and pertain to the discussion. Users should use the New Topic button to start a new discussion which would otherwise be off-topic in the current thread. Threads that are off topic may be closed by the moderator.

 

The topic has strayed way off the course of the original intent of the thread. If you would like to discuss economics, biofuels, subsidies, taxes, or other factors that have been discussed in the last few pages, you need to take it to the Off-Topic forum.

 

I find it interesting, however, that the original post had prices at $2.20 per gallon and that was high. I would imagine most of us would appreciate if gas prices went back down to that level.

Edited by Quiggle
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With prices in south Jersey upwards of $2.20  a gallon for regular, and seeing as how my 2005 Jeep Liberty comes in at 16 miles/gal. average,

I wonder if its the price of gas or the its the car payment that is holding you back. How much has your car payment changed with the shiny new vehicle vs the previous car.

 

My shiny new magnum (yeah its got a hemi) gets 20 mpg average.

 

I assume that with the current price of gas, your liberty musty be parked or traded in. :o

Edited by CraigInCT
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With prices in south Jersey upwards of $2.20  a gallon for regular, and seeing as how my 2005 Jeep Liberty comes in at 16 miles/gal. average,

I wonder if its the price of gas or the its the car payment that is holding you back. How much has your car payment changed with the shiny new vehicle vs the previous car.

 

My shiny new magnum (yeah its got a hemi) gets 20 mpg average.

I rented one of those last week on vacation in Calgary / Banff. Awesome car, I loved it.

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It is also good to know so many people have crystal balls that allows them to see how long it will take for viable alternatives to be developed.

Back in the 1930s, Nazi Germany did a pretty good job of developing synthetic oil within a very short time. I'm sure with modern technology we can do a lot better.

 

If oil were to run out, "bang", tomorrow, yes, we'd be in trouble. But such a situation is not going to happen. There might be a three-week hiatus like in 1973 if a few countries got together for political reasons, but that wouldn't last long. (And on the opposite side of the coin, what would happen to the price if Iraq starting pumping at full capacity tomorrow ?)

 

If we have enough oil for fifty years, that's plenty. Just think where we have come in technological terms in the last 50 or whatever years.

 

In any case, I believe I read somewhere that the proven shale oil reserves of the United States are enough for some number of thousands of years at current consumption. Only problem is, the cost. But at $100 or $120 a barrel, those little nodding donkeys are going to start turning up everywhere.

 

By the way, how many people here get their bad news about "oil to run out" or "world is overpopulated" or "global warming will make your house sink" from the same source as they get (and in some enlightened cases, reject) "killer virus to wipe out Texas - film at 11" ? There's undoubtedly some science behind all of these (including the killer virus), but I, for one, have no way to know when the science is good or bad. Not by the time the journalists have been at it...

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Now you did it. You got me talking about the energy problem. ;)

 

It is also good to know so many people have crystal balls that allows them to see how long it will take for viable alternatives to be developed.

Back in the 1930s, Nazi Germany did a pretty good job of developing synthetic oil within a very short time. I'm sure with modern technology we can do a lot better.

Really? What would they make this synthetic oil from??? Actually, don't they already have synthetic oil? I have seen it on the shelf at Walmart next to the cheap stuff I buy.

 

If oil were to run out, "bang", tomorrow, yes, we'd be in trouble.  But such a situation is not going to happen.  There might be a three-week hiatus like in 1973 if a few countries got together for political reasons, but that wouldn't last long.  (And on the opposite side of the coin, what would happen to the price if Iraq starting pumping at full capacity tomorrow ?)

 

If we have enough oil for fifty years, that's plenty.  Just think where we have come in technological terms in the last 50 or whatever years.

So you think in 50 years we won't need oil anymore? What energy source will we be running our cars on? And don't say Hydrogen or Electricity, since these are not energy sources, just means of delivering the energy.

 

I looked into Ethanol since that seems to be a renewable source. Seems that supplying all the current US gasoline fueled autos with Ethanol would require planting corn in some 3 times the entire area of Nebraska. So that is not very practical. Likewise neither is Solar for similar land area reasons.

 

In any case, I believe I read somewhere that the proven shale oil reserves of the United States are enough for some number of thousands of years at current consumption.  Only problem is, the cost.  But at $100 or $120 a barrel, those little nodding donkeys are going to start turning up everywhere.

We also have hundreds of years of coal deposits. But that doesn't get us there either.

 

By the way, how many people here get their bad news about "oil to run out" or "world is overpopulated" or "global warming will make your house sink" from the same source as they get (and in some enlightened cases, reject) "killer virus to wipe out Texas - film at 11" ?  There's undoubtedly some science behind all of these (including the killer virus), but I, for one, have no way to know when the science is good or bad.  Not by the time the journalists have been at it...

Maybe if you used a source other than News at 11 or the Weekly World News, you would get more reliable information and you could judge for yourself???

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You can make synthetic oil from anything with carbon in it (even CO2), provided you have enough energy from another source.

 

Currently, liquid fuels like gasoline or ethanol are a convenient way to consume energy, but to some extent that's because of the installed base (so, for example. cars run on gasoline because historically it was easy to distil gasoline from oil). If Gottlieb Daimler had had access to powerful electric motors and compact batteries, maybe the gasoline engine would never have happened.

 

Today, for automobiles, the installed base is a problem, no doubt about it. Before electric cars are viable, you'd need a network of service stations where you could swap out your empty batteries for new ones, for a reasonable price. Currently, the economies of scale are all on the side of gasoline...

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I will say that high gasoline prices have affected my cache hides. I have one I am trying to get done that is 11 miles from my place (as the crow flies) and I will still need multiple trips to finish up. I hate going all the way up there for one thing and burning over a gallon of gas. Its actually not the cost so much, heck, I am spending way more than the cost of the fuel. It is a conservation thing to me. The less fuel we burn, the lower the price of gas becomes.

 

I do hope people understand that. If we all made efforts to reduce our driving just 10%, we would see the price of gas drop way more than it has.

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Oil will never run out.  No commodity in human history ever has.  When oil gets scarce enough, we will already have developed alternatives.

 

If oil is $200 a barrel, it starts to become worthwhile to develop lots of energy sources, from fuel cells charged by nuclear-generated electricity through to wind, solar, tide, and wave power, plus I'm sure lots of stuff we haven't thought of yet.

 

Don't be ridiculous. You may be right that technology will advance to keep us driving, but petroleum is nevertheless a finite resource, and it will run out.

That's not ridiculous, it's simple economics. But because you don't seem to understand the way he put it, maybe this page will make it easier for you to understand.

Gee, ParrotRob, that's the first civil reply I've gotten from you. Thanks for offering your view without implying or stating I must be an idiot if I don't share it.

 

To the point: We cannot make new oil. The earth may be making new oil, but not at an appreciable rate. If we do not technically run out, but it becomes so expensive that we stop using it, that is essentially the same thing. In short, we will have to come up with alternatives either way.

 

k

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To the point: We cannot make new oil. The earth may be making new oil, but not at an appreciable rate. If we do not technically run out, but it becomes so expensive that we stop using it, that is essentially the same thing. In short, we will have to come up with alternatives either way.

Beware of confusing "it's too expensive to use" with "it's too expensive for me to use". I pay $7 per gallon - this is in Europe - so I drive a 30mpg car. But I know people who drive 15mpg SUVs and so are paying almost 50cts per mile. ;)

 

We can't make synthetic crude oil. But we can make any of its distilled derivatives - you just need carbon and energy. Right now, we do that by distilling crude oil because that's the cheapest way to do it. If oil gets too expensive, we will do one of two things:

 

- Make the distillates another way;

- Find an alternative to the distillates.

 

As I mentioned above, there's thousands of years' worth of shale oil. So the only issue is the price. And since the price is conditioned by supply and demand, it will never get "so expensive that we stop using it". It will get "so expensive that some people stop using it". In fact when oil was $20 a barrel, it was already "so expensive" that some people stopped using it for some purposes.

 

Right now, the world is very heavily oriented towards oil. But not much more than a hundred years ago we were all oriented towards horse power. Things can change pretty quickly, but it sometimes takes longer than a single person's working lifetime for the changes to be obvious, and it certainly takes longer than the lead time of the average TV news bulletin.

 

If you want a recent example, just think how long it took most of us to switch from "why the heck would I want a computer" to "help, my Internet connection has been down for half an hour". :blink:

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Beware of confusing "it's too expensive to use" with "it's too expensive for me to use".  I pay $7 per gallon - this is in Europe - so I drive a 30mpg car.  But I know people who drive 15mpg SUVs and so are paying almost 50cts per mile.  :o

I pay $3 to $3.50 a gal. and I drive a TDI that gets 45+ mpg. (and my work truck is also a diesel, getting about 16 mpg). I certainly understand the value of living within a budget.

We can't make synthetic crude oil.  But we can make any of its distilled derivatives - you just need carbon and energy.  Right now, we do that by distilling crude oil because that's the cheapest way to do it.  If oil gets too expensive, we will do one of two things:

 

- Make the distillates another way;

- Find an alternative to the distillates.

 

As I mentioned above, there's thousands of years' worth of shale oil.  So the only issue is the price.  And since the price is conditioned by supply and demand, it will never get "so expensive that we stop using it".  It will get "so expensive that some people stop using it".  In fact when oil was $20 a barrel, it was already "so expensive" that some people stopped using it for some purposes.

I think you mean "estimates are that there are thousands of years' worth" since there's no real way to gauge accurately. You can't see what's underground, and it's tough to predict how usage will change as supplies dwindle and countries like India and China go car crazy. There may be millions of years' worth, but there may be decades' worth. Unless I'm grossly misinformed.

 

Right now, the world is very heavily oriented towards oil.  But not much more than a hundred years ago we were all oriented towards horse power.  Things can change pretty quickly, but it sometimes takes longer than a single person's working lifetime for the changes to be obvious, and it certainly takes longer than the lead time of the average TV news bulletin.

 

If you want a recent example, just think how long it took most of us to switch from "why the heck would I want a computer" to "help, my Internet connection has been down for half an hour". <_<

 

true enough. but that seems to be saying, in effect, that we may at any time make a change to some other fuel than petroleum for powering most vehicles. which is pretty much what I'm saying we have to do. In short, I'm not sure we disagree about much here.

 

treedweller

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Second and final moderator's warning. This thread is for griping about how the rising gas prices are impacting your geocaching. Discussion of alternative energy sources, the politics of energy, etc., belong in the Off-Topic forum. There are several active threads there on these subjects. Thanks.

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Gasoline prices are dropping in Northern CA also, going from $3.09 per gallon for 87 octane to about $2.79. In my immediate area, the prices are still in the $2.89 range.

 

I haven't seen the driving habits change (still see those large shiny SUVs without passengers). I was even hoping for a story about China "refunding" unused crude to increase our supply (pardon me, I'm mocking daily "news releases" that manipulate speculators) B)

 

My caching habits haven't changed that much. I have been eating more fast food to get more calories per $$, but maybe I can eat better now.

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