Prediction for the Geocaching market segment

[+snow_rules]

Now is is 1 in Detroit, 1 in Washington D.C and the other is in some foreign country.

[+user13371]

At the risk of getting back on topic ...

 

ONE reason why geocaching will remain a viable niche for handheld dedicated GPS units

"Niche" in this sense is both an ecological and a market term -- a small area where conditions favor one kind of organism or product.

 

There is at least one requirement for handheld GPS units that won't likely be met by smartphones or car nav units in the near future: Waterproofing.

 

Don't confuse waterproof with simple ruggedness. It would add little to the cost of a smartphone to make it bullet-proof. Making it waterproof -- and maintaining usability - is trickier. A phone has microphone and speaker openings, a headphone jack, a charging and data port, etc. It is possible to make it waterproof to IPX7 standards, but t's cheaper and easier to make a waterproof device that doesn't need all those case openings.

 

In any market segment, devices evolve to meet the wants and needs of the customer. Few general consumers or "fair weather" hikers perceive a need for a waterproof smartphone, so few companies bother to make such a thing. But more hard-core outdoor enthusiasts, (hikers, cyclists, boaters, geocachers, "etc") want real waterproofing without comprosimng usability - so handheld GPS units are usually built to IPX7 standards.

 

---

 

Afterthought: A waterproof smartphone probably will become a generally available in a few years. But waterproofing will be mentioned only as an incidental benefit. The marketing push will be "Look Ma, no wires!" -- the convenience of a completely sealed and wireless smartphone. It'll use induction charging, a bluetooth headset, voice control, and multiple options for wireless data syncing. But that's not at your cellphone superstore yet, and won't be until someone figures out how to make it cheap enough and enough of the marketplace indicates a desire for it.

Edited December 24, 2009 by lee_rimar

[Grasscatcher]

Quote:

At the risk of getting back on topic ...

 

ONE reason why geocaching will remain a niche* for handheld dedicated GPS units

 

* "Niche" in this sense is both an ecological and a market term -- a small area where conditions favor one kind of organism or product.

 

Perfect analogy Lee....... A toy designed for a specific game.........

 

OK, now back from the Fantacyland of Delorme domination to the real world.....Everyone have a Merry Christmas!

[+user13371]

Grasscatcher - Snarkiness aside, I think you do get what I'm saying.

 

The dedicated handheld market GPS market is shrinking and will continue to do so, but it won't disappear. Within the range of users who do need a rugged outdoor device, geocaching will remain a small subset.

 

DeLorme has the chance to dominate here -- partly because they're good at it and partly because bigger companies will neglect it. But that's a far cry from suggesting D will knock G or anyone else out of any other market space.

[+trippy1976]

I argue that in 5-10 years we will not have handhead GPS units, digital cameras, mp3 players, or ebook readers. If you have used the iPhone you know what I am talking about. I believe everything will be integrated into the phones.

 

If you look at what the iPhone, blackberry, or android phones are today it is not far fetched to think shortly they will have the quality and specs to match all handheld GPS units today. Hell I am finding a hard reason to use a handheld GPS over the iphone today. Sure the GPS isnt as perfect but it does almost everything that the Garmin Oregon/Dakota series does as well as the Delorme units.

 

Im sure many will disagree with this but I dont think we are far off from these units disappearing. The good news out of all of this is that it will force Garmin and Delorme to step it up and put some kick a** features in their units at great prices.

 

This is where my money is too. In 5 year's time - cellular technology and phones will make GPS and internet connectivity ubiquitous. It's probably more to the point to wonder what kind of activities that technology revolution will bring rather than if GPS maker X will be around then.

 

I think Garmin, with their nuvi phone and other products, sees this coming better than any other manufacturer out there and will be well poised to take advantage of that revolution.

 

Most likely it'll be some google-driven or google-owned technology. And it'll know every search you ever made and will be able to give you a natural search rating about how well you'll like the cache you're about to attempt based on your previous finds, your affinity for chocolate, and the number of discussion forums you are a member on. Or something equally creepy and big brothery.

[+Renegade Knight]

...At the moment, iPhones are gaining geocaching users faster than Garmin, both in unit count and percentage gains in the past few months. After Apple and Garmin, nobody else even comes close -- both of them added more geocaching users in the past few weeks of holiday shopping than the next closest brands have total number of users.

 

Natural hazards will cure most iphone owners of using thier phones soon enough. I've dumped a couple in creeks while caching and dumped more on asphalt and concerete and that' without even using them like a GPS.

 

As for your prediction about Delorme. I think they have a shot at it. I reccomended GPSs to some new buyers and told them the pros and cons of Delorme vs. Garmin and they went Delorme.

 

I've seen a lot of good will for Delorme get built up over the past year. Garmin's got the lead but they mistepped with most all of their recent products. I like my Oregon except for the trying to use it part. All because of the crappy screen. I MIGHT upgrade if they fix the screen or i MIGHT go to Delorme if they are even close to an Oregon when the time comes. Delorme will get the edge for not screwing up to begin with if they have equal offerings..

 

I'm saying that as a Garmin fan.

[+user13371]

At the moment, iPhones are gaining geocaching users faster than Garmin, both in unit count and percentage gains in the past few months

Um, ah, about those gains... I did say that, didn't I?

 

I was mistaken. I made that remark based on a quick glance at the most commonly owned units -- in Garmin's case, the most commonly reported one are the legacy models that have been around for years. In focusing on those I neglected newer models which might be selling faster but haven't yet climbed to the top of GC.com's list of "most owned." The combined total Colorado+Dakota+Oregon units reported as owned by geocachers just recently cracked 29000, and I haven't even looked at all the various eTrex models.

 

Collecting numbers from GC.com on Apple and DeLorme units is easy because there are only a few models to look at. Garmin with over 200 models, and having to draw a line as to what's really a "handheld" or geocaching unit, is more difficult and I don't have a complete handle on that yet.

 

In my defense -- looking at a real numbers, making estimates, admitting mistakes and then trying to correct them -- is a bit better than just making it up.

Edited December 24, 2009 by lee_rimar

[+BAMBOOZLE]

Why is so much made of the DeLorme's screen size? Am I geocaching wrong? Because when I cache, my eyes aren't glued to the screen as I walk down the trail or through the woods. I'll take a quick look at the compass page to see how far I am from the cache and if I'm going the right direction. I'll look at the unit for maybe 5 seconds tops. Then I'll go back to admiring the scenery and looking for potential hiding spots for the cache. The compass and the distance readout are plenty big on my PN-30. As for the cache description text, don't be trying to read it while doing something else. Stop walking. Hold up the GPSr, bring it closer to (or farther away from) your eyes, adjust the angle, and read. This is a GPSr folks, not a TV.

 

Would it be nice if the screen was a little bigger? Yes. Is the DeLorme's screen size deficient for caching? No.

 

Well, when you're over 60 with tri-focals you can't get a big enough screen. Really though, until a couple of months I drove with my Meridian Color.....huge screen, great maps and cache displays. I bought a Nuvi a few months ago and am getting used to it. We've used Magellan Platinums for 7 years caching and love them.........I bought my wife a 60 CSx a year ago and she likes it for caching and the screen is nice but the Magellan Color blows it away for " driving" .

Here's the question.........we travel a lot and with Garmin you'v GOT to have a computer handy to feed caches to the Nuvi and 60 CSx...... using Magallan Meridians you can load about every cache in the US in seperate files on your SD card and pull them up when you want them......using an ancient Palm based PDA you can put the same files on the PDA's SD card for cache pages.........you could be gone for months ( we take 1 month trips) and never need your computer except for checking email, etc.

Does the PN-40 use a SD ( mini SD ) card and can you store files for pull-up or must you be tethered to a Computer like Garmin?

Does the PN-40 have a good steady non-quirky electronic compass to walk you to the cache?

 

As far as iPhone taking over for handhelds they better because I agree with Consumer Reports that as a phone they're horrible and don't get too far off the interstate or no signal of no kind. Its a glorified PDA-iPOD-mini netbook loaded with cute useless apps and games. For caching the electronic compass is worse than the 60 CSx and thats saying a lot.

I do like the geocaching app but its much slower to access than my pda..........you can get up-to-date info on caches assuming you have a signal.

[+TotemLake]

Firmware 2.7 updated the PN's capability to hold multiple GPX files for waypoints. Tracks on the PN can be saved now as GPX files to the SD card from the PN but cannot be imported back in. It's a slight pain to use this feature right now because you have to go through the Topo to save the waypoint GPX in a manner that still recognizes the geocaching symbols. But you can save this file directly to the SD card then load it to the PN. You don't have to load to the GPS then to the SD card like the way Magellan handled theirs with the Meridian/Sportstrac series.

 

FW 2.8 is currently in development to allow direct transfer of the GPX file without use of the Topo and still maintain it as geocacher friendly.

 

In either case, you are not limited to how many files you can keep for each 1000 set of waypoints except by available memory space. You can have the SD card in the card reader to transfer files rather than have the GPS tethered to the system. To that end, I have an adapter for USB ports to facilitate this when I'm out and about.

 

The tri-axial compass is good for under 2MPH or standing still and I find it is as stable as the compass was for the Meridian Platinum... maybe even more so. There is a built-in accelerometer that helps with this. It will position you correctly while standing still and if you turn to have the feature (for instance) on your right side, the feature will be on your right side on the imagery. It does have the same calibration quirkiness as the Magellan so be aware of the need to calibrate when you swap out batteries. Edited to add the compass when set to a waypoint will still be subject to the satellites estimate of the waypoint position.

Edited December 25, 2009 by TotemLake

[robertlipe]

I'm reluctant to grinch on this thread as I think that a discussion of possible futures has a place, but ask that this thread not turn into yet another forum topic where the regulars post why their chosen hardware is The One True Unit. Can we keep this on industry trends (and in doing so, some discussion of specific models is inevitable) and not a rehash of the various "what should I buy" threads that are already well represented by the regulars?

[+BAMBOOZLE]

Firmware 2.7 updated the PN's capability to hold multiple GPX files for waypoints. Tracks on the PN can be saved now as GPX files to the SD card from the PN but cannot be imported back in. It's a slight pain to use this feature right now because you have to go through the Topo to save the waypoint GPX in a manner that still recognizes the geocaching symbols. But you can save this file directly to the SD card then load it to the PN. You don't have to load to the GPS then to the SD card like the way Magellan handled theirs with the Meridian/Sportstrac series.

 

FW 2.8 is currently in development to allow direct transfer of the GPX file without use of the Topo and still maintain it as geocacher friendly.

 

In either case, you are not limited to how many files you can keep for each 1000 set of waypoints except by available memory space. You can have the SD card in the card reader to transfer files rather than have the GPS tethered to the system. To that end, I have an adapter for USB ports to facilitate this when I'm out and about.

 

The tri-axial compass is good for under 2MPH or standing still and I find it is as stable as the compass was for the Meridian Platinum... maybe even more so. There is a built-in accelerometer that helps with this. It will position you correctly while standing still and if you turn to have the feature (for instance) on your right side, the feature will be on your right side on the imagery. It does have the same calibration quirkiness as the Magellan so be aware of the need to calibrate when you swap out batteries. Edited to add the compass when set to a waypoint will still be subject to the satellites estimate of the waypoint position.

 

So right now using FW 2.7 I could use GSAK to create a file ( say, 500 caches from a PQ ) and send it to a PN-40 ( or a SD card) where I could name it. I could save as many of these files as the card would hold and be able to load them into the PN whenever I want ?

 

Does the PN use SD or mini-SD and what is the max.size it will read ?

 

Re the small screen.......can you read cache pages, hint, etc. without problems ?

 

Thanks for your help regarding this.

 

Re the future , an iPhone( or other device) may do all things but might not do any of them as well as a device dedicated to a specific purpose.......it will, however, serve as a great back-up for ALL your devices ( and you need back up in the field)

 

A geocaching friendly Nuvi ( Where files can be saved to the SD card ) to drive to the cache and a handheld ( where caches and cache pages can be saved to the card) to walk to the cache is all we need.

My Meridian Color did the first well and my Platinum does the second ( no cache pages though.......must have PDA) From where I sit what I've been doing for 7 years still beats whats happening now.

[robertlipe]

Ahem. Final request to keep this thread on topic as per the post above. After reviewing the existing threads and FAQs on the PN if you still have questions (the ones above have been asked and answered many times) please start a new, appropriately titled thread.

[+RRLover]

 

So right now using FW 2.7 I could use GSAK to create a file ( say, 500 caches from a PQ ) and send it to a PN-40 ( or a SD card) where I could name it. I could save as many of these files as the card would hold and be able to load them into the PN whenever I want ?

 

Yes, from GSAK to device, then to card, repeat as necessary until 2.8 arrives.

 

Does the PN use SD or mini-SD and what is the max.size it will read ?

 

Full size SD, 32 GB

 

Re the small screen.......can you read cache pages, hint, etc. without problems ?

 

I elected to have my magnification on my bi-focals reduced by 30% it's fine for me,

I previously use a Magellan eXplorist XL arguably the largest brightest avail.

 

Thanks for your help regarding this.

 

Re the future , an iPhone( or other device) may do all things but might not do any of them as well as a device dedicated to a specific purpose.......it will, however, serve as a great back-up for ALL your devices ( and you need back up in the field)

 

A geocaching friendly Nuvi ( Where files can be saved to the SD card ) to drive to the cache and a handheld ( where caches and cache pages can be saved to the card) to walk to the cache is all we need.

My Meridian Color did the first well and my Platinum does the second ( no cache pages though.......must have PDA) From where I sit what I've been doing for 7 years still beats whats happening now.

 

Comments inserted above(Duh!)

 

Norm

 

P. S. :

This dialog isn't 'in line' w/topic.

For further follow-up a new topic

would be prudent

Edited December 26, 2009 by RRLover

[Crude]

I'm going to go one step further and say tri-corder. That's one device that can do everything and is in everyway superior to what we have now. 2 years tops. The handheld market is currently flying by other technology in terms of development. Current evices have gps, OTA data, voice, fm radio (send and recieve), magnetometer, blue tooth, 802.11 b/g/n. It's only a mater of a few years till it's all as good as it's stand alone couterparts. Agree?

[Ken in Regina]

2) How many of those were bought with geocaching as the main intended use?

3)... and for hiking?

4) .. and for bicycling?

Good questions, Lee.

 

It's interesting that in the Garmin forums Garmin has chosen to set up forums for "Running&Fitness" and for "Cycling". But Geocaching doesn't appear anywhere as a subject in their forums.

 

Now I'm no mind reader and I certainly don't have any inside knowledge but I don't think it would be a stretch to guess that might have some relationship to the relative sales volumes??

 

...ken...

[jholly]

Now I'm no mind reader and I certainly don't have any inside knowledge but I don't think it would be a stretch to guess that might have some relationship to the relative sales volumes??

...ken...

 

And when you go to BestBuy or Costco and all they got are car GPS units you get a bit more suspicious.

 

Jim

[+user13371]

Rethinking this...

 

Original basis for prediction: The market for dedicated handheld GPS units will continue shrinking as smartphones and other location-aware devices give most consumers "good enough" nav capabilities for most "fair weather" activities. Within the shrinking "hard core" market, geocaching will stay a very small subset. General hiking, cycling, SAR, and quite a few other activites will remain much larger segments than geocaching. This might mean big Garmin would put a smaller (proportional) effort into geocaching and leave an opening for DeLorme.

 

BUT... even a tiny portion of G's effort will likely outweigh anything the competition can throw at it in the near future.

 

So... I don't know what I was thinking the day I predicted that DeLorme would dominate in this one area. If it ever happens, it will take far longer than the projected timeframe and some other major, as yet unimagined market shifts.

Edited December 27, 2009 by lee_rimar

[+gpsblake]

well, to those who say Garmin is going to lose geocaching market segment.

 

Since the beginning of 2008.... Garmin has come out with all of the following... the Dakota series, the Oregon series, the Colorado series... plus total upgrades to the Legend H , Etrex H, and Venture HC

 

Way more units then all the other handheld manufacturers combined. Garmin has not relented one bit on the geocaching market.

[Ken in Regina]

well, to those who say Garmin is going to lose geocaching market segment.

 

Since the beginning of 2008.... Garmin has come out with all of the following... the Dakota series, the Oregon series, the Colorado series... plus total upgrades to the Legend H , Etrex H, and Venture HC

 

Way more units then all the other handheld manufacturers combined. Garmin has not relented one bit on the geocaching market.

They've even taken a run straight at one of the features that until a few weeks ago was unique to DeLorme and very favored by those who like handhelds for caching or other outdoor activities: the ability to put your own raster maps on the unit. Yes, it needs work, but it took away one of the truly unique distinctions the DeLorme units had.

 

...ken...

[+TotemLake]

well, to those who say Garmin is going to lose geocaching market segment.

 

Since the beginning of 2008.... Garmin has come out with all of the following... the Dakota series, the Oregon series, the Colorado series... plus total upgrades to the Legend H , Etrex H, and Venture HC

 

Way more units then all the other handheld manufacturers combined. Garmin has not relented one bit on the geocaching market.

They've even taken a run straight at one of the features that until a few weeks ago was unique to DeLorme and very favored by those who like handhelds for caching or other outdoor activities: the ability to put your own raster maps on the unit. Yes, it needs work, but it took away one of the truly unique distinctions the DeLorme units had.

 

...ken...

Interesting you should note this. It seems capabilities are becoming more vanilla on both sides. Garmin with their work to allow raster imagery to be displayed on the GPS and DeLorme to allow mulitple GPX file management. There's nothing like competition to make all users the winner no matter which choice they go with.

[+Redwoods Mtn Biker]

It's interesting that in the Garmin forums Garmin has chosen to set up forums for "Running&Fitness" and for "Cycling". But Geocaching doesn't appear anywhere as a subject in their forums.

 

My impression is that these forums are meant to replace the old MotionBased forums, which had a strong emphasis on fitness. I'm hoping we'll see their forums expand in the future.

[Ken in Regina]

My impression is that these forums are meant to replace the old MotionBased forums, which had a strong emphasis on fitness. I'm hoping we'll see their forums expand in the future.

As are many of us. They have good coverage for Mapsource and POILoader now. There's even one of their developers checks into the Mapsource forum fairly regularly.

 

...ken...