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How Many Is Too Many?


fersman4

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[i did do a search before I posted this topic, but found nothing.]

 

We all know the number of members on this site are growing very quickly, and now that geocaching is getting attention from the media, one can only expect the growth to continue. One of the things I like about geocaching is that it is almost an exclusive sport to those who happened to be let in on the little secret. After all, why do we use the cell phone trick in busy areas, or call non-geocachers geo-muggles if not to keep that secret from them?

 

More geocachers means more caches to find (yes, it also means more lamp-post micros, but that aside....), which is a good thing. But at some point, the number of people caching becomes so great that geocaching is no longer a secret society with its own culture. Instead it becomes a commonly used term that means much less than it means now and does little to discriminate the geocaching culture from the rest of society. I suspect when we finally reach these numbers, a vast number of people will suddenly be bored with the mundane sport known as geocaching and its significance will be lost.

 

How many is too many? 1% of the country's population? 5%? 10%? How far are we from this point? How do we make sure we never get there?

Edited by fersman4
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But at some point, the number of people caching becomes so great that geocaching is no longer a secret society with its own culture

<snip>

How do we make sure we never get there?

Kill off any geocachers with more than 3 years under their belts, then geocaching will become a satanic cult ;):P

 

I need to take my meds now.

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The United States land area is 3.5 million square miles. With the rule of no cache can be placed less than 0.1 miles from another cache, then there could conceivably be 10 caches in a mile, or 100 caches in a square mile. If every square mile is saturated, then we would reach enough caches when we have hidden 350,000,000 caches in the US. We have a ways to go. ;)

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The United States land area is 3.5 million square miles. With the rule of no cache can be placed less than 0.1 miles from another cache, then there could conceivably be 10 caches in a mile, or 100 caches in a square mile. If every square mile is saturated, then we would reach enough caches when we have hidden 350,000,000 caches in the US. We have a ways to go. ;)

And someone would probably try to find them all.

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I think as long as there are the few of us that are as passionate as we are geocaching will never become the way you describe it. Sure it may get more popular and there may be less meaning behind the geocaching word. but I think as people try the sport out they will either like it and stick with it or they wont and drop out. there really is no in between. Really I don't think it will change as much as we think it will.

 

Long live geocaching.

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Pretty soon we will be posting coordinates of site locations that don't have a cache.

 

I guess , being somewhat of a Newbie, I wasn't attracted to the "club" aspect of this. I just thought the thrill of the treasure hunt was cool enough. Plus it gives me an opportunity to hit the woods with my son who loves the outdoors.

 

The only problem I see with the numbers of GCR's increasing is the possible increase in people who are sloppy or careless around the cache. It could increase the Muggle-ability of some caches that have been well concealed for sometime.

 

Spamhead

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The vast majority of the people I know are not interested. The next highest number are people that will go, but only with me and never on their own. The least are avid cacher that I've introduced to the hobby.

 

Just as we do not need to dodge Remote Control Airplanes on the way to work due to masstive and uncontroleld growth of that hobby, our hobby will level out at some minority of the population where it will be sustainable.

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Okay, I've calmed down now.

 

According to jeremy we have more to worry about waypoints running out, this quote is from the thread "what comes after GCZZZZ

The end of the world.

 

512400 caches will exist at that point.

 

That's just silly. Do a search for GC65. Apparently, the code will just roll over to 7 characters.

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I still think there are more people out there that won't get into this sport then will, I mean the pull of the playstations and X boxes are still greater then the pull of bushwacking for happy meal toys. I myself rather be out side looking for treasure, then growing pasty at home. Nothing against playstation or gameboys but just not for me. Don't want to affend the gamers. i know the people I try to get to try it out with me look at me like I'm a techy geek playing with a GPS in the woods. So for the over popultion of this sport, I do not think that will happen the media will bore of telling it and we will remain a forgotten secret sport. YEAH!!!!

;)

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The vast majority of the people I know are not interested.

Exactly right. As much as this hobby appeals to me and a few others I know, there are many, many more people that I've introduced to geocaching who have no interest in actually going out on their own. It's like any hobby - not everyone is into it.

 

And don't forget - people come, but people go, too.

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I still think there are more people out there that won't get into this sport then will, I mean the pull of the playstations and X boxes are still greater then the pull of bushwacking for happy meal toys. I myself rather be out side looking for treasure, then growing pasty at home. Nothing against playstation or gameboys but just not for me. Don't want to offend the gamers. I know the people I try to get to try it out with me look at me like I'm a techy geek playing with a GPS in the woods. So for the over population of this sport, I do  not think that will happen the media will bore of telling it and we will remain a forgotten secret sport. YEAH!!!!

;)

Why not do both at the same time?

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I still think there are more people out there that won't get into this sport then will, I mean the pull of the playstations and X boxes are still greater then the pull of bushwacking for happy meal toys. I myself rather be out side looking for treasure, then growing pasty at home. Nothing against playstation or gameboys but just not for me. Don't want to offend the gamers. I know the people I try to get to try it out with me look at me like I'm a techy geek playing with a GPS in the woods. So for the over population of this sport, I do  not think that will happen the media will bore of telling it and we will remain a forgotten secret sport. YEAH!!!!

:)

Why not do both at the same time?

another way to do both

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The United States land area is 3.5 million square miles.  With the rule of no cache can be placed less than 0.1 miles from another cache, then there could conceivably be 10 caches in a mile, or 100 caches in a square mile.  If every square mile is saturated, then we would reach enough caches when we have hidden 350,000,000 caches in the US.  We have a ways to go.  :D

Even more:

 

Every cache occupies a circle with the radius of 0.05 miles. If you look at it that way you've one layer of a hexagonal close packed molecule:

 

image002.jpg

 

:):)

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The vast majority of the people I know are not interested. The next highest number are people that will go, but only with me and never on their own. The least are avid cacher that I've introduced to the hobby.

 

Uh huh. I have tried to get my friends interested - and they have all looked at me like I am crazy.

 

And, let's face it, most of us avid cachers are in one form or another pretty much nuts/dorks/nerds/OCD/scary/scared - take your pick! :)

 

I too have wondered about the popularity growing "too much" - especially in the wake of a bunch of new, pretty sub-par (for this area) caches by newbies who haven't taken the time to read the guidelines and find a few caches before hiding their own. But, generally, I think one of two things will happen - the ones that will stick around will take the advice of their fellow cachers (I've had sucky hides myself) and grow with the sport, and the rest will ignore the logs and any advice given, they will get bored and not maintain their caches (or their caching), and they will just eventually fall out of the game.

 

But, I do agree that not every piece of land needs a cache.

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And don't forget - people come, but people go, too.

 

I couldnt have said it better.

Very true , We have tried to introduce geocaching to several people as well . Only a couple of them showed much interest . Some of them just raise there eyebrows at us and say ... mmmm k ( like we are nuts) :) Star has even tried to interest her brother whom is an avid outdoorsman type , he said it sounds cool ...but he has yet to go find one with us , so we don't think he will be taking it any futher either.

One couple we introduce to the sport really seemed to get into it , more so he did then she did , and their children , well one may like it and the other one ... she is a teenage girl and really has no use for it . They do maintain there 2 or 3 caches they have placed but that is about all they do anymore .

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Geocaching represents that segment of the population that is geeky AND outdoorsy. I don't want to alarm anyone who is worried about dating prospects, but I'm guessing that's a pretty small sub-set. The two characteristics are usually more in opposition than alignment.

 

My pleasure in being "in on a secret" has always been balanced by my horror in "looking weird and conspicuous and trying not to attract attention while wondering how I'd explain my way out of it if cornered."

 

And before anyone says it, I have tried explaining what I was doing honestly; non-cachers don't seem particularly comforted by a description of geocaching. "Oh, I see. You're playing a game that's likely to bring more scruffy geeks into this neighborhood park I always thought of as a comfy extension of my back yard. Thanks. Would you excuse me? I have a letter to write to the city council..."

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And, let's face it, most of us avid cachers are in one form or another pretty much nuts/dorks/nerds/OCD/scary/scared - take your pick! 

I am not. :D Well OK, some might think I'm a little scary. :)

 

In the late 80's early 90's golf experienced a boom in particiaption. developers tripped over one another to build the next great course with a subdivision around it. The emergence of Tiger Woods was a big part of this growth. Now there has been a levelling off, and I read articles about how to fill all these courses on the weekends when I even bother to open my Golf Magazine.

As long as we keep celebrity status out of geocaching we'll have nothing to worry about. :)

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I too have wondered about the popularity growing "too much" - especially in the wake of a bunch of new, pretty sub-par (for this area) caches by newbies who haven't taken the time to read the guidelines and find a few caches before hiding their own. But, generally, I think one of two things will happen - the ones that will stick around will take the advice of their fellow cachers (I've had sucky hides myself) and grow with the sport, and the rest will ignore the logs and any advice given, they will get bored and not maintain their caches (or their caching), and they will just eventually fall out of the game.

 

Having been caching 2 whole years, I've already seen this cycle (twice). New Xmas GPSrs, new cachers, new cache placements - then the disappearing act. The good caches get maintained and the bad go missing and get archived. (Winter is prime caching season here.)

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Okay, I've calmed down now.

 

According to jeremy we have more to worry about waypoints running out, this quote is from the thread "what comes after GCZZZZ

The end of the world.

 

512400 caches will exist at that point.

 

That's just silly. Do a search for GC65. Apparently, the code will just roll over to 7 characters.

Actually that would be a problem, sorta, since several gps units only allow six digit names.

Four digit cache IDs were assigned back when the hexdecwhateveryoucallthenumbersystem was being done different (thats about as well as I can describe it). It was changed to the currect system because the other was running low on numbers, and it would allow a lot of ID numbers and still be only 6 digits.

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Kill off any geocachers with more than 3 years under their belts, then geocaching will become a satanic cult :D:)

 

I need to take my meds now.

I think you got it backwards. Those with over three years have been told the proper ratios for the special cool-aid, which be used on the newest members and progress upwards as needed. Its all in the numer 7 varient 'operation signal' packet, you did receive your op sig pak right? :)

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If you look at the stastics and from these you can make some assumptions, I kow I know but hang in there. I think when you hit 160 caches your in the top 1-% of cachers in the world. With something like 250 your like in the top 5% and with about 350 the top 1%. So what does this mean it basically means that there are a lot of folks that have very few cache. I Dont cosider 160 caches that many but it surised me that thtat was the top 10%. I am sure GC.com does not have any attrication of user i.e. if you haven't logged in in say 60 months they delete you. So the fact that there are many new folks to geccaching there are many thet lose interest and leae the sport. So unless you actually did a count of say people that had logged a cache ins say the lsat month then you do not have aaccurate count of how many people are actively geocaching.

 

"There are lies, dadgum lies and stastics Mark Twain

 

cheers

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It struck me as funny a few days ago that all of the doom and gloom threads about the growth and death of the hobby recycle every year during the first quarter.

 

It doesn't stress me out. Every year, people hear about the hobby and get GPSrs for christmas. We see a big jump in enrollment, but the end doesn't come. Its like every year is a big millenium scare.

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The United States land area is 3.5 million square miles.  With the rule of no cache can be placed less than 0.1 miles from another cache, then there could conceivably be 10 caches in a mile, or 100 caches in a square mile.  If every square mile is saturated, then we would reach enough caches when we have hidden 350,000,000 caches in the US.  We have a ways to go.  :)

And someone would probably try to find them all.

Nah... Because the people in it for numbers won't do the long hikes - even if they can get 100 caches per mile up and down the side of a mountain.

 

It struck me as funny a few days ago that all of the doom and gloom threads about the growth and death of the hobby recycle every year during the first quarter.

That's because those of them that don't have the weather that those of us have get stir crazy after a long winter and they have to do something to keep them occupied in that weird weather between time of winter transitioning into spring.

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The United States land area is 3.5 million square miles.  With the rule of no cache can be placed less than 0.1 miles from another cache, then there could conceivably be 10 caches in a mile, or 100 caches in a square mile.  If every square mile is saturated, then we would reach enough caches when we have hidden 350,000,000 caches in the US.  We have a ways to go.  :)

Even more:

 

Every cache occupies a circle with the radius of 0.05 miles. If you look at it that way you've one layer of a hexagonal close packed molecule:

 

image002.jpg

 

:):D

Even MORE

 

Remember that those radii (radiuses?) can overlap:

0bab0823-6cfe-48cd-9cf7-87c9802f5a67.jpg

 

If each of those circles is 528 feet...

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Okay, I've calmed down now.

 

According to jeremy we have more to worry about waypoints running out, this quote is from the thread "what comes after GCZZZZ

The end of the world.

 

512400 caches will exist at that point.

 

That's just silly. Do a search for GC65. Apparently, the code will just roll over to 7 characters.

Actually that would be a problem, sorta, since several gps units only allow six digit names.

Four digit cache IDs were assigned back when the hexdecwhateveryoucallthenumbersystem was being done different (thats about as well as I can describe it). It was changed to the currect system because the other was running low on numbers, and it would allow a lot of ID numbers and still be only 6 digits.

And yet, Jeremy has already indicated that he'll do just that.

 

Buy a new GPS by sometime in 2007, OK? :)

Edited by Markwell
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The only effect I see from a geocaching boom (speaking from a location that does not currently have an explosion of caches) is that it will be harder to log my finds and notes. The site can sure get slow during peak times. Rather, if I may conjecture here, the bigger problem will be abandoned caches and lost TB's (as someone has already pointed out). Many people will drift away from the sport leaving their small piece of chaos in their wake. Of course, this will get worse if their is a boom in membership. It is more likely we will have an increase in the density of abandoned and unmaintained caches than it is we will get too many new caches, I think.

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Okay, I've calmed down now.

 

According to jeremy we have more to worry about waypoints running out, this quote is from the thread "what comes after GCZZZZ

The end of the world.

 

512400 caches will exist at that point.

 

That's just silly. Do a search for GC65. Apparently, the code will just roll over to 7 characters.

Actually that would be a problem, sorta, since several gps units only allow six digit names.

Four digit cache IDs were assigned back when the hexdecwhateveryoucallthenumbersystem was being done different (thats about as well as I can describe it). It was changed to the currect system because the other was running low on numbers, and it would allow a lot of ID numbers and still be only 6 digits.

And yet, Jeremy has already indicated that he'll do just that.

 

Buy a new GPS by sometime in 2007, OK? :blink:

Hmm...

OK never mind what I said then :huh:

 

thanks for the link :blink:

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But at some point, the number of people caching becomes so great that geocaching is no longer a secret society with its own culture.

 

The only problem I see with the numbers of GCR's increasing is the possible increase in people who are sloppy or careless around the cache. It could increase the Muggle-ability of some caches that have been well concealed for sometime.

 

The Geocaching.com membership has increased by over 3,000 new members in the last week alone! 

 

I too have wondered about the popularity growing "too much" - especially in the wake of a bunch of new, pretty sub-par (for this area) caches by newbies who haven't taken the time to read the guidelines and find a few caches before hiding their own.

 

Non-cachers don't seem particularly comforted by a description of geocaching. "Oh, I see. You're playing a game that's likely to bring more scruffy geeks into this neighborhood park I always thought of as a comfy extension of my back yard. Thanks. Would you excuse me? I have a letter to write to the city council..." 

All issues addressed by the Geocachers' Creed, and good reasons to share it with as many newbies as possible (and muggles when you're trying to explain geocaching)! It won't cure all of the ills, but it can't hurt to try! :blink:

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Even more:

Actually Markwell, you just repeated what was already said. The Navigatorz gave their circles 0.05mi radii.

 

Jamie

But that prohibits multiple overlaps.....Markwell is right. (note the "gaps" in between the .05 circles....vs lack of gaps in Markwells)

 

 

edit: incomplete thought....

Edited by StarBrand
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The vast majority of the people I know are not interested.

Exactly right. As much as this hobby appeals to me and a few others I know, there are many, many more people that I've introduced to geocaching who have no interest in actually going out on their own. It's like any hobby - not everyone is into it.

 

And don't forget - people come, but people go, too.

Yeah, like me. i'll cache for a while, then drop off completely, pick it up again later :blink:

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Even more:

Actually Markwell, you just repeated what was already said. The Navigatorz gave their circles 0.05mi radii.

 

Jamie

But that prohibits multiple overlaps.....Markwell is right. (note the "gaps" in between the .05 circles....vs lack of gaps in Markwells)

 

 

edit: incomplete thought....

I think you'll find that both Navigatorz and Markwell are correct - those "gaps" you see in Navigatorz are within .1 miles of the other caches because Navigatorz used .05 radius (two Navigatorz circles can never properly intersect, they can only touch at a single point, resulting in a cache-to-cache distance of .05+.05 miles=.1 miles). In Markwell's diagram, he has not done as close packing but it will end up with a hexagonal pattern when the .1 mile radius falls exactly on the next cache.

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...

Uh huh.  I have tried to get my friends interested - and they have all looked at me like I am crazy...

Yeah, me too. I have only one friend (outside my immediate family) who has tried it, and he hasn't really gotten into it.

 

...the ones that will stick around will take the advice of their fellow cachers (I've had sucky hides myself) and grow with the sport...

 

Yes, and it should be part of our ethos to offer constructive and friendly advice (as you often do).

 

It's the same in every sport I have every been involved with--fishing, hunting, sailing, tennis--the "golden agers" always complain about the sport being ruined by the influx of dilletantes. Well, what of it? It was bound to happen.

 

Those of us who do not appreciate lame urban micros will just have to be a bit more selective, and travel a bit farther to find the kind of hides we like. I really think that a rating system would help. I have often seen it discussed. In the absence of that, I suppose we should take the effort to post positive comments in our logs whenever we really enjoy a find.

Edited by reveritt
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I'm not worried.

 

I don't think it will ever become overly mainstream, but even if it gains more popularity there is room for many, many more cachers.

 

My only concern is if someone tried to formalize or create extreme rules for the activity. I'd also be concerned if there were "bad" cachers that caused damages to public areas and resulted in getting the activity banned in areas (I started snowboarding in 1986 and Mountain Biking in 1992 -- trust me - it CAN happen).

 

That's a bridge that I guess the community will need to cross if and when it ever happens.

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