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What's Up With The Weather?


avroair
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I was told by various weather channels that yesterday's forecast was thunderstorms, rain and more rain... :blink:

 

They couldn't have been so off! Despite the downpour in Northern NJ at 8 a.m. the weather steadily improved so that by 10 a.m. the sun was peaking out and by 11 a.m. sunny skies, low humidity and no rain!

 

As Rusty O Junk said at the Pirates of Harriman event:

That must be the only job where people get things wrong 80% of the time and STILL don't get fired!

 

I don't remember the weather forecast being so off before! :lol:

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Well, it was supposed to rain all day here as well and although it wasn't sunny there was not a drop. Actually it was better than sunny. Instead of going to the beach people came to our festival and we had out best year ever. I would still have rather been at the Pirate event but we did have a great day just the same. I still cant believe we didn't get any rain.

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Amazing how inaccurate the weather forecasters are today with all their modeling programs, etc. On the way out caching yesterday, they said Sunday would be ok in the morning with thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. I didn't check again last night, so now the kids are ticked off we can't go caching.

 

I wonder if someone did a study on weather forecasts 20 years ago vs now and if they've gotten any more accurate. If not, maybe they shouldn't spend all the money on new fangled weather equipment.

 

Maybe it'll be nice in the afternoon since they called for thunderstorms! :(

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Sort of related. Some people swear by the Farmer's Almanac predictions. I did a study a few years ago where I made my own, random predictions and compared them to the accuracy of Farmers Almanac. Using the same format they use, I predicted the weather for a 2 month period. I also accounted for partial accuracy. For example if the prediction was for rainy and hot weather and it was rainy and cold, it would be half a point.

 

After 2 months I compared my totally random predictions to the Farmers Almanac and I was right 32 percent of the time and they were correct 28 percent of the time.

 

I thought about doing the same comparison with The Weather Channel's long range forecast, but I don't have that much time on my hands anymore :( .

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Sitting here in Sunny California I can't complain. 60 degrees in the morning until 11 a.m. mist burns off rest of the day sunny 83 and NO humidity!

 

Just kidding... We did special issue on weather at Scientific American and their forecasting models are suppose to read out to 7 days. (10 is toal BS) However, they only have a good 3 day forecast... which is strange since they screw that one up routinely...

 

Maybe it's the globlal warming? :(

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Maybe it'll be nice in the afternoon since they called for thunderstorms! :blink:

Welll... guess what.... it turned nice in the afternoon. Went out with 1 daughter and 1 of her friends. The other daughter asked a friend over once we woke up and it was crappy out. Amazing how wrong they can be. That darn Mother Nature!

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Sort of related. Some people swear by the Farmer's Almanac predictions. I did a study a few years ago where I made my own, random predictions and compared them to the accuracy of Farmers Almanac. Using the same format they use, I predicted the weather for a 2 month period. I also accounted for partial accuracy. For example if the prediction was for rainy and hot weather and it was rainy and cold, it would be half a point.

 

After 2 months I compared my totally random predictions to the Farmers Almanac and I was right 32 percent of the time and they were correct 28 percent of the time.

 

I thought about doing the same comparison with The Weather Channel's long range forecast, but I don't have that much time on my hands anymore :blink: .

I just happened to check the farmer's almanac the other night and it has been dead on for the entire year so far. The past few years have actually been pretty close, compared to what it usually is. I just hope they are wrong for August predictions saying that we will get a heat wave we haven't seen in years and oppressive humidity.

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