Space Weather

[+EraSeek]

Looks like we got a little activity going on in space. Things are a bit hot. This may cause some postion errors. A good time to use your WAAS.

 

The giff image is not updating so HERE is the link to the current activity.

Edited July 25, 2004 by EraSeek

[+Stunod]

Ummm...for us "normal" people...what exactly is a "k index"?

[+EraSeek]

GIANT SUNSPOT: The source of the incoming CMEs (and the geomagnetic activity of July 22nd) is giant sunspot 652. Wider than the planet Jupiter, the active region has a twisted magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful X-class solar flares. It's so big you can see it without a telescope, but don't look directly at the blinding sun.

 

K-indices of 5 or greater indicate storm-level geomagnetic activity. Geomagnetic storms have been associated with satellite surface charging and increased atmospheric drag.

 

Tonight there is a good chance of Auroras as far south as Washington, Wisconsin and Michigan.

[+Imajika]

It hasn't been making my GPS act freaky.

 

My satellite radio has been acting weird lately though. Maybe this is why. What a pain to be listening to a great song and have it fade in and out for a few seconds!

[+EraSeek]

Basically it means there is a solar storm going on which hits our atmosphere with charged particles. This, among other things will cause a charged ionosphere which causes signal delay, and therefore position error in your GPS. (no it's not the government doing it. )

[uperdooper]

Basically it means there is a solar storm going on which hits our atmosphere with charged particles. This, among other things will cause a charged ionosphere which causes signal delay, and therefore position error in your GPS. (no it's not the government doing it.   )

it could be the sun's government.

Edited July 25, 2004 by uperdooper

[koz]

Basically it means there is a solar storm going on which hits our atmosphere with charged particles. This, among other things will cause a charged ionosphere which causes signal delay, and therefore position error in your GPS. (no it's not the government doing it.   )

it could be the sun's government.

or the government's sun...or the bush's son for that matter

[+Robespierre]

powerful X-class solar flares.

Are X-men involved?

And why do you suppose this happens just in time for Boston's big event?

[+CYBret]

I think this might be what you're talking about.

 

Those of you who were caching last fall might remember the weird readings on your GPS due to the sunspot activity then. The news page I referenced above is a few days old and I'm not sure if the sunspot has cut loose or not. It will be interesting if it does.

 

Bret

[+Desert_Warrior]

Yes, and I expect huge problems with my ham radio equipment also.

 

The worst of it is, it could also affect my job. I work in a power plant.

[+EraSeek]

I think this might be what you're talking about.

 

Those of you who were caching last fall might remember the weird readings on your GPS due to the sunspot activity then. The news page I referenced above is a few days old and I'm not sure if the sunspot has cut loose or not. It will be interesting if it does.

 

Bret

Yes it has. There was a big hit on Thursday. At the current time the Kp index is at 8! I thing that is bigger than I recall the previous activy last fall

 

Take a look HERE> http://solar.sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html

[+EraSeek]

Current activity of Geomagnetic storms for both thre last 24 hours and current is rated at severe:

 

"Power systems: possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid.

 

Spacecraft operations: may experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

 

Other systems: induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.)**. "

[+shunra]

Yes it has. There was a big hit on Thursday. At the current time the Kp index is at 8! I thing that is bigger than I recall the previous activy last fall

I am reading this only today :-(

 

Did you see any auroras last night?

How long does something like this usually last, and is it predictable?

[+EraSeek]

The current activity has just dropped to moderate. And so it goes. It fluxes a lot. Not only do you need to have sunspots and flares for such disturbances, but they need to be aimed in our general direction during ejections. This is why it fluxes so.

How long do they last? I'm not sure. I think a few days to a few weeks. I'd didn't notice auroras last night, but I didn't look much. There was a photo of a green sheet of lights from Baker Lake Wa the night before. They can be something worth staying up for.

 

Here is a current magnograph of the Sun. Hope the image sticks.

 

 

It may not because it is updated.

[+EraSeek]

Here is current predictions:

SPACE WEATHER

NOAA

Forecasts

Solar Flares: Probabilities for a medium-sized (M-class) or a major (X-class) solar flare during the next 24/48 hours are tabulated below.

Updated at 2004 Jul 24 2200 UTC

FLARE 0-24 hr 24-48 hr

CLASS M 70 % 70 %

CLASS X 20 % 20 %

 

Geomagnetic Storms: Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm

Updated at 2004 Jul 24 2200 UTC

 

Mid-latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr

ACTIVE 30 % 40 %

MINOR 10 % 20 %

SEVERE 05 % 10 %

 

High latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr

ACTIVE 30 % 45 %

MINOR 25 % 30 %

SEVERE 10 % 15 %

[+LukeH]

I took a class on this stuff in the spring. Very interesting indeed.

Big flares could also degrade satellite orbits. A huge flare will ionize the atmosphere and energize it enough so that it expands, meaning there will be more density and therefore more drag at higher altitudes. GPS satellites are too high up to be affected by that, but many low-Earth orbiting satellites could lose years off their mission time if a big enough flare hits.

[+Team Flying Dachshund]

I have a WAAS related question. I am in Texas and I have never locked on to a WAAS satellite. Is there some reason for this or is it even possible for me to lock on to it here?

Edited July 25, 2004 by Team Flying Dachshund

[+EraSeek]

I have a WAAS related question. I am in Texas and I have never locked on to a WAAS satellite. Is there some reason for this or is it even possible for me to lock on to it here?

Yes it is possible, although Texas 'sometimes' does not have optimal coverage. Most likely you have just not intiated WAAS properly yet. Find a nice open high spot (not hard to do in Texas) with good exposure to the ESE. This is the only WAAS sat you can get there. If you have a Garmin unit which can use WAAS, got to the setup menu and Enable WAAS. Be very patient! Hold your GPS up and let it cycle through the satillites and do it's thing. This can take 15 or 20 minutes. Once you start seeing "d's" on the satillite bars, you'll know you have WAAS. Those are the WAAS corrected Sats. It take about 12 minutes or so to load the entire WAAS almanac from the sats.

 

Here is a link to real time WAAS coverage:

http://www.nstb.tc.faa.gov/vpl.html

[+EraSeek]

Boy, here a great jpg from the TRACE site showing how things work. Solar CME's (coronal mass ejections) are kind of like a shotgun blast. What direction the gun is pointed depends on how much you get hit, and how heavy the load is depends on how hard you get hit.

 

 

And here is a blurb from TRACE:

"Solar events can cause changes in the electrical and chemical properties of the Earth's atmosphere, in the ionosphere, and in the magnetosheath. Changes in the Earth's environment caused by solar activity can happen on time scales ranging from less than a minute to over a century. These changes cause magnetic storms, communication static, power blackouts, and navigation problems for ships and airplanes that use magnetic compasses. A solar storm will increase the density of the atmosphere, possibly damaging satellites and spacecraft or causing them to re-enter the atmosphere earlier than planned. The Sun and solar wind also appear to play a role in the long term climate changes on Earth. Our ability to predict particle outbursts and fluctuations in the plasma flowing from the Sun will become even more important as more of our science and commerce depend on the operation of vehicles in space. "

[+Robespierre]

good thread!

[+GeoKender]

Is that why my GPSr has been acting up during the early afternoons?

And once the sun sets more towards horizon (5pm+), the GPSr regains satellites more accurately?

[+EraSeek]

The greatest ionospheric disturbance (when there isn't solar flair activity and things are normal) is during the day, generaly early afternoon. There is much, much less at night. When there are solar storms, activity will mostly be during the day, but depending when it hits the hardest. I assume there is somewhat more distrubance at night as well, but not nearly as much as daytime. So, yes, I guess so.

 

It could also just be the satillite configurations at the time.

[+EraSeek]

Looks like things are cooling down. I went outside to see the auroras last night when the level was at a "10", but it quickly dropped to "5" by 11pm. No love.

 

Here are some forcasts:

"Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity

21 July - 16 August 2004

 

Solar activity is expected to range from low to high. Regions 649

and 652 are both expected to produce further M and X-class activity

early in the period. Old Region 646 is due to return on 29 July and

could produce isolated M-class flare activity through 12 August.

 

A greater than 10 MeV proton event is possible.

 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is

expected to reach high levels on 26 – 27 July due to a recurrent

coronal hole high speed stream.

 

The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active

levels with minor storm periods at high latitudes. Unsettled to

active conditions with high latitude minor storm periods are

possible on 25-26 July as a recurrent coronal high speed stream

rotates into a geoeffective position. At the time of this writing,

a CME associated with an M8 flare in Region 652 appears to be at

least partially Earth directed; consequently, minor to major storm

levels are possible on 23 July. Region 652 is a very large and

complex sunspot group with good potential for geoeffective CMEs

during the first week the forecast period."

 

"

PRESTO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM Mon Jul 26 2004, 1248 UT

LASCO/C3 coronagraph observed an apparently frontsided halo CME on July 25 at 17:18 UT and later. It was associated with an M1.1 long-duration flare in NOAA AR 0652, Catania sunspot region 82. The CME speed estimates are not available yet; so we expect strong interplanetary disturbance to arrive late on July 27 or on July 28. However, we do not expect Kp index to be higher than 6 as the CME originated slightly aside from the solar disc center and thus will probably be only moderately geoeffective.

Proton event that started yesterday at this CME initiation is now continuing as the CME shock propagates in the interplanetary space. "

[chemfed]

Ah ha! My GPSr was totally FUBAR last Friday. I was caching w/ a buddy and our two Garmins would have different readings of about a 60' distance even though the day was clear and we had a good view of the sky and the horizions. This explains a lot.

[dsandbro]

Gee!

 

I thought it was all due to the democratic convention causing a disturbance to the force or something...

 

[thorin]

Since no one posted the obvious link, I will:

 

http://spaceweather.com/

[+EraSeek]

Here are several other links:

 

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/index.html

 

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/

 

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/Education/index.html

 

http://vestige.lmsal.com/TRACE/Science/Sci...ts/trace_cdrom/

[+Klemmer]

Good stuff, guys. I got to thinking about several really "wild hair" track points on my trek Sunday 7/25, and now I know why. I was on a longish hike (8 mi), open hill country, no tree cover to speak of. When I downloaded the track data to my Delorme TopoQuads, there were three obvious "errors" (track point way off the track). Likley they reflected degraded accuracy at times. I said "hmmm..." and did a search on the forum for "sunspots" and voila! Thanks again!

Edited July 27, 2004 by Klemmer

[+=BB=]

Today (July 27, 2004) is another particulary active day in the ionosphere with a Kp of approx. 8 ! This is listed as a severe geomagnetic storm. Sound like a GREAT time to try some particularly difficult caches ;-)

[btlgrl]

These storms are a big issue nowadays. They affect not only satellite transmissions, but they can affect aircraft communications. A large CME was responsible for a large blackout in Canada and the northeastern US back in 1998. It fried a transformer station. Scientists are a bit concerned about these storms for a couple reasons. First of all, they usually follow an 11-year cycle. Right now we should be at a solar minimum, but the storms lately have been unusually strong. Secondly, the Earth's magnetic field, which protects us from these blasts has weakened, leaving open the possibility of dangerous radiation exposure. Check out Spaceweather.com for more details. It really is an important issue when you consider how many of us rely on satellites for everything from GPS, communication, defense, etc.

 

btlgrl

[uperdooper]

i'm on drummond island right now and there were fantastic northern lights last night. they got bright enough to light up the beach. best display i've seen.

[+EraSeek]

Here is where we are at in the 11 year cycle:

 

[thorin]

As EraSpeek has illustrated nicely we're on the downward slope but we aren't at the minimum yet. However as btlgrl suggested, solar activity has been unusually high for our current point in the cycle.

 

http://www.solcomhouse.com/solarmax.htm

 

Thorin

[btlgrl]

The storms from last year are responsible for the failure of Japan's mission to Mars. The blast was so powerful, it knocked out the power and communication systems. The government, along with the ESA (European Space Agency), has really stepped up the monitoring of these occurences. As our magnetic field continues to weaken, studies have shown that the magnetic poles of the Earth will eventually flip (this is a proven natural occurance, which we are quite a few thousand years overdue for), also affecting gps systems, compasses, and exposing us to harmful radiation. The poles will not flip instantly, instead leaving areas of polar radiation concentration over areas around the world, as it works its way towards its new position. In other words, many who have never seen an aurora, probably will. No one can say for sure when this will happen, but anyone can see how the position of magnetic north has moved, and is still moving. Really amazing stuff!

 

btlgrl

[+EraSeek]

Secondly, the Earth's magnetic field, which protects us from these blasts has weakened, leaving open the possibility of dangerous radiation exposure. Check out Spaceweather.com for more details. It really is an important issue when you consider how many of us rely on satellites for everything from GPS, communication, defense, etc.

 

btlgrl

"8b. Is Earth's magnetic field going to reverse?

While we now appear to be in a period of declining magnetic field strength, we cannot state for certain if or when a magnetic reversal will occur. Based on measurements of the Earth's magnetic field taken since about 1850 some paleomagnetists estimate that the dipole moment will decay in about 1,300 years. However, the present dipole moment (a measure of how strong the magnetic field is) is actually higher than it has been for most of the last 50,000 years and the current decline could reverse at any time. Even if Earth's magnetic field is beginning a reversal, it would still take several thousand years to complete a reversal. We expect Earth would still have a magnetic field during a reversal, but it would be weaker than normal with multiple magnetic poles. Radio communication would deteriorate, navigation by magnetic compass would be difficult and migratory animals might have problems.

"

[+LukeH]

Yeah as some have said, these are nothing. Wait 5-7 years until solar maximum, and see how many fun things the sun starts to do!

[+Centex Trekker]

Here is where we are at in the 11 year cycle:

 

I see 2000-2002 were high points of the cycle. That's about the time my Ex started to act strange. Could it be?

[+EraSeek]

Sorry about your Ex.

An interesting note: Along with this 11 year cycle of Sunspots and flares, the Sun's magnetic pole flips!, does a complete reversal every 11 years like clockwork. Perhaps, probably, the cause of all the sunspots and flares.

[btlgrl]

Yes, along with the sun's poles reversing, scientists also believe that it has to do with the sun shedding its outer layer during this period. This coincides with the 11-year cycle, and the increase in magnitude of the CMEs.

"8b. Is Earth's magnetic field going to reverse?

While we now appear to be in a period of declining magnetic field strength, we cannot state for certain if or when a magnetic reversal will occur. Based on measurements of the Earth's magnetic field taken since about 1850 some paleomagnetists estimate that the dipole moment will decay in about 1,300 years. However, the present dipole moment (a measure of how strong the magnetic field is) is actually higher than it has been for most of the last 50,000 years and the current decline could reverse at any time. Even if Earth's magnetic field is beginning a reversal, it would still take several thousand years to complete a reversal. We expect Earth would still have a magnetic field during a reversal, but it would be weaker than normal with multiple magnetic poles. Radio communication would deteriorate, navigation by magnetic compass would be difficult and migratory animals might have problems.

"

 

Yes, this is along the lines of what I had meantioned. The geologists who have studied the magnetic orientation of metals in rocks have noticed the pattern of reversal in various layers, leading them to believe that if we should be following the same pattern, we are long overdue. The reversal does take a long time to happen, but during that time where the poles are moving is when the most dramatic effects will take place, as you mentioned. EraSeek, you are very knowledgeable in this area. Does this follow your line of work, or is it just an area of interest? For myself, I hold a workshop on Space Weather for area school children. Just wondering.

 

btlgrl

[+EraSeek]

No. Simply an area of interest.

 

They have also co-dated pole position and habitation in Australia by ancient firepits. When the rocks cool off, the minerals in them re-align to magnetic north/south.

 

It was also one of the early telling proofs of contiental drift. As the mid-Atlantic ridge spreads, the new material from the ridge aligns to N/S, so you have a record of bands of alignment as you travel outward.

 

You might be interested in these 2 links for the ionosphere:

http://iono.jpl.nasa.gov//latest_rti_global.html

http://www.windows.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/realti...uicklook7c.html

Edited July 28, 2004 by EraSeek

[thorin]

One Advantage to recent high solar activity.

 

Thorin