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OFF TOPIC- Missouri earthquake "prediction"

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Before anyone panics, I do not believe this earthquake prediction. The person who made this prediction is NOT an authority.


"On Wednesday May 7,2003 there will be a massive earthquake on the New Madrid fault in the area of southeast Missouri. This is an area known as the "bootheel". The quake will register approximately 8.8 on the Richter scale. The epicenter of the quake will be near Portageville, Missouri. The following areas of the United States will be especially directly affected by this quake:

The extreme southern tip of Illinois near Cairo and Mound City; The western counties of Kentucky beyond Land Between the Lakes; The northeast counties of Arkansas along the Mississippi River;The northwest corner of Tennessee along the Mississippi River; Southeast Missouri including the "bootheel" and areas close by.

The worse potential damage will be within a radius of 60-65 miles of the epicenter. Paducah Kentucky is on the edge of this radius. We here in Louisville may feel the quake but we will not be in an area of heavy damage."


Good luck Missouri! Hope you and your caches remain safe.

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Disaster response is part of my job and deals with this area of the country. An 8.8 would have far more impact that what the writer indicates. An 8.8 would cause severe damage north of St Louis, far south of Memphis, and, regardless of the writer's hopeful opinion, Louisville will also receive substantial damage.

In the early 1800s a quake of almost that magnitude struck the same area which caused the Mississippi River to run backwards and changed the path of the river. Back then there was little modern population in the area so damage to structures was minimal. However, there are reports the shock, and aftershocks which lasted for days, were strong enough which caused church bells to ring in Boston 1000 miles away.

While I hope he's wrong on the date, predictions are that a quake of such magnitude will occur in the New Madrid fault area and speculation is within the next 100 yrs.

I'm not sure what kind of "sarcastic reply" you are looking for.

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Dang, I just spent 30 minutes looking for one of my favorite Dilberts:


Boss: The network went down and I lost my work.

Dilbert: The server crashed.

Boss: From now on, I want advanced notice of any unplanned outages. And I need it yesterday.

Dilbert thinks: I used to think that was just a figure of speech.


Next day's strip:

Dilbert: As you requested, here is a schedule of all future unplanned network outages. I took the initiative to include a schedule of all future sick days, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and hurricanes.


Dilbert: This is the point when you realize how stupid your request was and we have a good laugh.

Boss: Does CNN know about this?



Chicago Geocaching

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I remember the last time someone predicted "the big one" for the New Madrid fault, back around 90-92, somewhere in there. I remember because I was planning on driving through (or by, really) New Madrid on I-55 on my way to school on the day the earthquake was predicted. Nothing happened that time too, despite weeks of national press coverage.



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To Wadcutter:


I don't take the effects of an earthquake lightly, nor the valid and necessary attempts to try and predict when an earthquake will occur. But I cannot take an earthquake prediction seriously when it is made by someone without any background in plate tectonics as this prediction was. (It was made by a someone without a science background who makes predictions for a living.) It was a late night and feeble attempt at humor. As a science geek, I've been aware of the New Madrid fault and the earlier earthquake you mentioned.


For a really big disaster in the making, check out this website.

A Utah university monitoring the volcanic area downplays the threat.


I'm sorry if I offended anyone by making a joke about an earthquake. That was not my intention.

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_I'm sorry if I offended anyone by making a joke about an earthquake. That was not my intention._


No offense taken and none meant. The author of the quote wasn't identified and obviously from his prediction he's not fully informed of the magnitude an 8.8 would have on that region. But according to those doing the monitoring, a major one will occur again along the New Madrid fault. Just a matter of when.

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Wow! I heard this too! A guy I work with has a friend who's sister lives in that area. She was at the coffee shop and overheard someone saying that Nostradamus predicted it. Or was it the Farmer's Almanac predicting rain? I did notice a squirrel acting wierd this morning in Ohio.


Dorothy: "How can you talk if haven't got a brain?" Scarecrow: "I don't know. But some people without brains do an awful lot of talking, don't they?"

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Hmmm.. I remember reading somewhere (years ago, maybe Omni magazine) about a guy (I think he had some kind of science background) that noticed that prior to an earthquake, there was an increase of 'lost pet' ads in the paper. No big 'exact day' predictions, but it did appear there was a correlation. Anyone else heard of this?


I walk the Maze of Moments, but everywhere I turn to, begins a new beginning, but never finds a finish... -Enya, Anywhere Is

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Originally posted by worldtraveler:



No, I'm really not waiting for "the big one"; I just got back home from looking for a cache, and I'm doing my "body check". icon_biggrin.gif

Hehe, check out my logs (and other logs) on this cache. It's one of the few times I've ever had to strip search my wife... icon_wink.gif



"All of us get lost in the darkness, dreamers learn to steer with a backlit GPSr"

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A major quake is expected on the New Madrid (prounced MAD-rid) eventually, but no one can say when for sure.


Quake insurance is generally required for a mortgage in the St. Louis area. Also, the local building codes take the comming quake into account. (The St. Louis Arch is supposed to survive, for example)


A good size quake in that region will be pretty serious. Due to the geology, the tremors will be felt over a very large area, and there are probably be a lot of buildings sinking due to "liquifaction" of some of the river bottoms (where the ground temporarily turns fluid-like due to the shaking).


If you're interested in knowing more, I'd suggest "The New Madrid Earthquakes" by James Lal Penick, Jr., published by the University of Missouri Press in 1981 (ISBN 0-8262-0344-2). It's not real heavy on the science, but tells a lot of the historical reactions of the people living there at the time (1812).



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