Is geocaching becoming more/less popular?

[+ecumountaineer]

Google trends shows it dropping, but what does it know?

[+gpsblake]

Jan 27, 2010 - In the last 30 days, there have been 2,282,806 new logs submitted.

Jan 27, 2011 - In the last 30 days, there have been 3,184,673 new logs submitted.

Jan 27, 2012 - In the last 30 days, there have been 5,023,752 new logs submitted

Jan 29, 2013 - In the last 30 days, there have been 4,880,451 new logs submitted

 

July 4, 2012 - In the last 30 days, there have been 6,825,757 new logs submitted

July 5, 2011 - In the last 30 days, there have been 5,781,037 new logs submitted

 

----------------- source is archive.org--------------------

 

Last year was an extremely mild winter which may have lead to slight more finds in 2012 then 2013. But my conclusion is no, geocaching is not dropping off.

 

Side note, I just realized by 10th year of geocaching is coming up on Friday. So I'll toot my own horn once about this. Yea for me!

Edited January 30, 2013 by gpsblake

[+cerberus1]

Cool.

- Thanks for sharing your Anniversary donuts.

[+Gitchee-Gummee]

Google trends shows it dropping, but what does it know?

What basis does Google use for that determination?

 

I would offer up simply that as the population on this earth continues to grow, there are more people to find out about geocaching, the more people find out about it, the more members it attracts.

 

As an aside... folks are always "dropping out" of geocaching. Various reasons -- changing interests, sickness, death, disablement, you name it. Those accounts, once verified and used, exist forever and are never to be adopted away. So... the question comes up as to whether Google is using Active accounts, Inactive accounts or New accounts.

 

If they are using Caches found (or logged) as a basis, that reasoning is flawed. New cachers promptly become enamored ("addicted") and generally go great guns only slow their pace later on, older cachers often reach retirement age and accelerate their pace.

 

Another example: Cache saturation in many areas is maxed out. Many come to the forums and gripe (of sorts) that they have nowhere to hide a cache. This is primarily because of "new" cachers finding out about and wanting to hide their own. With new hides reaching the point of decline, does this mean that geocaching also is declining or even about to decline?

 

Too many variables, without tons of study. Perhaps Google did tons of study. Do you know?

 

 

 

Pass me a donut, please.

[+GeePa]

From Google itself:

 

How does Google Trends work?

 

Google Trends analyzes a portion of worldwide Google web searches from all Google domains to compute how many searches have been done for the terms you've entered, relative to the total number of searches done on Google over time. You can choose to see data for select Google properties, including Web search, Images, Product search, and News search (certain properties aren't currently available in all countries/territories).

 

On the results page, you'll see:

 

a graph with the search volume, indicating interest over time (GMT) for your terms, plotted on a scale from 0 to 100; the totals are indicated next to bars by the search terms (read more about how we scale and normalize the data)

a breakdown of how the categories are classified

lists of the top searches and top rising searches

a world heat map graphically displaying the search volume index with defined regions, cities, and metros

 

Keep in mind that Trends uses data aggregated over millions of users without personally identifiable information. Additionally, it only shows results for search terms that receive a significant amount of traffic, and enforces minimum thresholds for inclusion in the tool.

 

Maybe people are just more out finding them than searching about them

[+Crow-T-Robot]

I think it's still gaining popularity but the turnover rate is probably much higher. The smartphone app really helped skyrocket geocaching awareness, as many more people could give geocaching a try without having to invest much money. Quite a few smartphone cachers keep on caching but far more go bananas for a few weeks or months and then move on to something else.

 

That's not new, as plenty of cachers from the 2000-2001 era are no longer active, either. So, geocaching is becoming more popular, but the number of "life" cachers (the ones who will continue to cache for years and years) probably remains about the same.

 

[+cerberus1]

I agree.

 

Realized I rambled to say the same thing that C-T-R just said.

Edited January 30, 2013 by cerberus1

[+WRASTRO]

I am a "lifer" so to speak. There quite a few of us. I think the percentage is probably favorable for those of us who started in the earlier years and are still caching as compared to those who start now and stay active for a year or more. Just my gut feel.

[+ras_oscar]

I am a "lifer" so to speak. There quite a few of us. I think the percentage is probably favorable for those of us who started in the earlier years and are still caching as compared to those who start now and stay active for a year or more. Just my gut feel.

 

So, how many years do I need to "put in" bevfore I can consider myself a lifer? As I climb the state rankings list, I have noticed that most people have many more years in the game than I. Of course we all know its not about the numbers

[+StarBrand]

Just an un-provable theory with no facts but it could be that the early trend of running out to find all xxxx caches along such and such powertrail is dying off a bit since 2011?? Mega powertrails were pretty new back then.

[+NYPaddleCacher]

 

Another example: Cache saturation in many areas is maxed out. Many come to the forums and gripe (of sorts) that they have nowhere to hide a cache. This is primarily because of "new" cachers finding out about and wanting to hide their own. With new hides reaching the point of decline, does this mean that geocaching also is declining or even about to decline?

 

That may be true but cache density is heavily weighted to a relatively small number of countries.

 

Every once it awhile I'll go to the "Search By Country" pages to capture the number of caches currently active in each country and sort the results into a list. I did that a couple of days ago. Here are some numbers that some might find interesting.

 

There are 255 countries/regions in the "search by country" list.

 

4 countries have more than 100,000 caches

19 countries have more than 10,000 caches

38 have more than 1000

 

That means that about 85% of the countries/regions in the world have fewer than 1000 caches, and about 70% have fewer than 100 caches in the entire country. 80 different countries/regions have 10 caches or less with 17 without any caches at all.

[nonaeroterraqueous]

From Alexa:

 

Edited January 31, 2013 by nonaeroterraqueous

[vagabond]

Jan 27, 2010 - In the last 30 days, there have been 2,282,806 new logs submitted.

Jan 27, 2011 - In the last 30 days, there have been 3,184,673 new logs submitted.

Jan 27, 2012 - In the last 30 days, there have been 5,023,752 new logs submitted

Jan 29, 2013 - In the last 30 days, there have been 4,880,451 new logs submitted

 

July 4, 2012 - In the last 30 days, there have been 6,825,757 new logs submitted

July 5, 2011 - In the last 30 days, there have been 5,781,037 new logs submitted

 

----------------- source is archive.org--------------------

 

Last year was an extremely mild winter which may have lead to slight more finds in 2012 then 2013. But my conclusion is no, geocaching is not dropping off.

 

Side note, I just realized by 10th year of geocaching is coming up on Friday. So I'll toot my own horn once about this. Yea for me!

 

OT lets have a party 12 years the 12th of feb WOO HOO

[+wmpastor]

Gas prices may have affected activity in the last year.

 

A question for the statistics-gurus in the crowd: What percent of total members are premium members? What percent of logged finds are logged by premium members?

[+WRASTRO]

I am a "lifer" so to speak. There quite a few of us. I think the percentage is probably favorable for those of us who started in the earlier years and are still caching as compared to those who start now and stay active for a year or more. Just my gut feel.

 

So, how many years do I need to "put in" bevfore I can consider myself a lifer? As I climb the state rankings list, I have noticed that most people have many more years in the game than I. Of course we all know its not about the numbers

 

You can consider yourself a lifer whenever you see fit. Such status has nothing to do with your find count, and especially not in comparison to others'. I spent a few years working to keep in the top 100 finders in Washington but that got to the point where it wasn't fun for me. These days new cachers can pass my find count in a year or two. Doesn't matter to me. I still chuckle when I see a cache log from someone stating "my first find and I am hooked!" More often than not they never make more than a few more finds if any.

[+L0ne.R]

I am a "lifer" so to speak. There quite a few of us. I think the percentage is probably favorable for those of us who started in the earlier years and are still caching as compared to those who start now and stay active for a year or more. Just my gut feel.

 

So, how many years do I need to "put in" bevfore I can consider myself a lifer? As I climb the state rankings list, I have noticed that most people have many more years in the game than I. Of course we all know its not about the numbers

 

You can consider yourself a lifer whenever you see fit. Such status has nothing to do with your find count, and especially not in comparison to others'. I spent a few years working to keep in the top 100 finders in Washington but that got to the point where it wasn't fun for me. These days new cachers can pass my find count in a year or two. Doesn't matter to me. I still chuckle when I see a cache log from someone stating "my first find and I am hooked!" More often than not they never make more than a few more finds if any.

 

So true. I know a couple of people who were hooked in the first week and told everyone who would listen about the great new hobby, then lasted less then 3 months before they didn't find it appealing anymore.

 

I would love to see the stats on how many cachers have been active on the site for....less then 1 year, 1-5 years, 5-10 years, 10+ years.

[GPS-Hermit]

I am finding more Geo-Caches that are not Maintained or abandoned - somebody is dropping out! I think the numbers move around alot!

Edited February 2, 2013 by GPS-Hermit

[+ShaunEM]

I would also point out that once you cache for a while it becomes harder to cache where you live. You have found them all...

 

So you may be caching just as much, only now you are finding less per trip.. Possibly.

 

That could make it look less popular in some measures.

 

Shaun