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cache-fan

1 Million Geocaches

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Today there are 989,555 active geocaches around the world, when will we reach the 1 million mark? Any prediction is welcome.

 

Cache Fan predicts 30.06.2010.

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792,137 Tuesday, May 05, 2009

797,190 Monday May 11 am

804,108 may 20

813,170 may 31 roughly 808 per day in May

870,256 Aug 10

910,640 sept 29

 

916,547 Oct 7 738 daily

924,213 Oct 19 638 daily

924,781 Oct 20

925,540 Oct 21

928,022 oct 25 659 over 3 days....

935,404 Nov 6 615 daily last 12 days

946,694 Nov 24

 

In an attempt at a more scientific estimation, I took the info above and plotted it on a

graph like so:

 

0b70b1ed-4ba6-4d98-9d8f-e521c24fba6d.jpg

 

I did not quite know how to interpret and extrapolate trendlines using the Excel serial dates, so I converted the dates to "days after 20090505" - the initial date in the list above. I suspect that cache placing should decrease because it is winter in the Northern Hemisphere (where most of the caching activity takes place), but the graph does not show much of a trend to reflect this (then again the time span only includes the "good" caching season for the northern hemisphere). I added a polynomial trendline - a bit more flexible than a straight line.

 

That polynomial predicts 10E6 caches at 288/289 days after 20090505 = 20100215. I will add another month due to reduced caching activity in the northern hemisphere, so my educated guess is 20100315 or 15 March 2010. I'm thinking April 1 2010 is not a bad guess at all.

 

Way back in November I did this study in a post the main forums

 

There I predicted 15 March 2010

Edited by the pooks

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In the very first event cache we attended Let's Quiz again like we did last summer in June 2007 one of Discombob's questions was what were the active caches and number of logs as displayed on the main page at the time. Then it was something like 457,000 caches and 48,000 logs - almost 3 years later and now it is 989,000 caches and 1,914,000 logs!

Edited by the pooks

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Are we allowed to give a few options to our predictions? Like...

 

2 April 2010 (because that is my Father-in-law's birthday), if not reached by this date, then:

 

3 May 2010 (Rolf's birthday), if not reached by this date, then:

 

28 May 2010 (My Mom's birthday), if not reached by this date, then:

 

18 June 2010 (My Dad's birthday), if not reached by this date, then:

 

26 June 2010 (Nadia's birthday)

 

<_<:unsure::huh:

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B) There are now 994,682 active geocaches around the world, the countdown is running. There will be at least one more today as RedGlobe is on the mountain today. :)

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Taking the last ten days into account, and extrapolating another ten days I get to 8 March 2010.

One week to go!

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There are 999,675 active geocaches around the world.

 

It is now the 8th of March and we are almost there - Maybe by the end of today?

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There are 1,001,001 active geocaches around the world.

 

So today, 8 March 2010 is the day!

The mind boggles at the fact that there are more than a million different caches of varying descriptions out there waiting to be found!

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Taking the last ten days into account, and extrapolating another ten days I get to 8 March 2010.

One week to go!

 

And the winner is Jors, good guess!

Edited by cache-fan

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