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1,000,000th Cache Publication

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No real money to change hands of course, and apologies if someone's already mentioned it, but I'll start the ball rolling:

 

1st April 2010

 

:wub:

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I don't know if a date could really be nailed down for this as caches are always being added and archived. You could make an arguement that this benchmark has already been passed.

 

As for one million ACTIVE geocaches I submit the 2nd of April 2010

(classic Price is Right manoever - outbid by one)

 

:wub:

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Unless I'm mistaken the millionth cache was created some time ago. Lots of caches have been published and archived (or never published at all) so there are less than a million active caches at present.

 

I think you're asking when there will be a million active caches.

 

It should be possible to pin it down to a particular day. I dont know how frequently G.S updates the stats on the home page.

 

Just to be annoying....my guess.... 3rd of April 2010

Edited by sdarken

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The one-millionth cache ID is this cache: GC1GBC0. But not all waypoints were actually used for caches, so the one-millionth published cache was somewhat later. I should probably get permission and do a statistical study sometime to estimate that number better. Only geocaching.com could actually find it exactly.

 

The date for having one million active caches doesn't sound that interesting to me. I guess it's because I am a relative old-timer.

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Ah well there we are. I didn't realise that archived caches took the number down again - just thought all caches ever published were added to the total as I've only ever seen the number increase.

 

So for those who DO find it interesting - the millionth ACTIVE cache then...

 

:wub:

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My vote would be right after the first of the year 2010. It always seems like there are a bunch of cache published then, it may be enough to push it over the edge. My question is when will there be 1 million cachers?

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http://www.geocaching.com/seek/cache_details.aspx?ID=1000000 

 

You can play with different cache ID # using the URL above to see other numbers that might interest you.

 

The last time this came up, I kept track for a while. Below are some numbers from May 2009. These are active caches as reported on the front page. Those stats are updated once a day, so the precise moment of 1,000,000 active cache will likely be unknown. One day there will be fewer than 1,000,000 and the next there will be more.

 

792,137 Tuesday, May 05, 2009

 

797,190 Monday May 11 am

 

804,108 may 20

 

813,170 may 31 roughly 808 per day in May

 

870,256 Aug 10

 

Based on these numbers, I'm guessing sometime in mid to late January 2010.

Edited by Isonzo Karst

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Re Col. Flagg's question about "1 million cachers"

 

http://www.geocaching.com/profile/?id=1000000

 

Thursday, March 01, 2007 the 1 million cacher ID was created. There was a thread about it at the time.

 

Col. Flagg, your ID# is 1281438

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Re Col. Flagg's question about "1 million cachers"

 

http://www.geocaching.com/profile/?id=1000000

 

Thursday, March 01, 2007 the 1 million cacher ID was created. There was a thread about it at the time.

 

Col. Flagg, your ID# is 1281438

But three of them are me... (Me, myself, and I?)

 

I know of many people with many accounts.

 

Most reviewers have at least two accounts (one player, one reviewer).

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There should be some type of prize to the person who places the 1,000,000th active cache. Maybe a golden (painted) ammo can with 1,000,000th cache written on the side. Swizzle

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Yeah! But have 200 other prizes of ammo cans that are different gold/bronze/silver shades! I'm bound to win one! :)

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Ooops silly me... :) , but how many still cache?

 

Approximately 1/2 of them never have, and never will. They're just signing up for a free account on the internet. :D As far as this one millionth active cache thing, to put archived caches into perspective, I receive never less than 15, sometimes as many as 40 archival notices per week just in my 50 mile notification range. I think it's safe to say hundreds of caches are archived world-wide per day.

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792,137 Tuesday, May 05, 2009

797,190 Monday May 11 am

804,108 may 20

813,170 may 31 roughly 808 per day in May

870,256 Aug 10

910,640 sept 29

 

916,547 Oct 7 738 daily

924,213 Oct 19 638 daily

924,781 Oct 20

925,540 Oct 21

928,022 oct 25 659 over 3 days....

935,404 Nov 6 615 daily last 12 days

946,694 Nov 24

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Ah well there we are. I didn't realise that archived caches took the number down again - just thought all caches ever published were added to the total as I've only ever seen the number increase.

 

So for those who DO find it interesting - the millionth ACTIVE cache then...

 

:laughing:

 

Thank you. It is interesting. Practically exciting. :laughing::P:lol:

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Place an imaginary bet here at Hubdub regarding when the one-millionth cache will be listed.

 

See the signature on this post for more info about joining Hubdub.

 

You DID mean "...active cache will...." didn't you? Yeah, thought so. :laughing::lol::laughing:

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My vibe is saying either April 4, 2010 but the aura is not overwhelmingly strong, cause I am also getting a beat on March 24, 2010. :laughing:

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No real money to change hands of course, and apologies if someone's already mentioned it, but I'll start the ball rolling:

1st April 2010

:laughing:

I sure would not trust it if I saw "1,000,000 Active Caches" stated on the main geocaching page on April Fool's Day!" You'd better wait until April 2, and see if the number is still at least that, to claim victory. :laughing:

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My vibe is saying either April 4, 2010 but the aura is not overwhelmingly strong, cause I am also getting a beat on March 24, 2010. :laughing:

Keep in mind that Keystone has promised to instantly archive a few hundered caches just as it hit 999,999 - so he can mess withpeople...... :lol::laughing:

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To me, "what it will be" is as interesting than "when it will be." Will the millionth cache be a lamp post hide, a magnetic key holder on a guard rail, or a nano stuck on the underside of a bench? Or will it be a molded brick facade stuck to the supports of a bridge? (Sorry.) To get the date AND the type of container right would be an achievement worthy of a remote viewer, like Ed Dames. (sorry again)

 

Which brings to mind two other questions, even more off topic. Can Groundspeak control the numbers and place one as awe-inspiring as the Tunnel of Light APE cache as the "official" millionth cache? Or hold a mega-event to unveil it?

 

And will we see a rash of small tupperware, seemingly tossed out of the car window into a bush, all trying to get the magic number? And what will be the social effect? Will sales of small plastic containers and cheap swag suddenly go up, causing stocks to rise, bringing us out of the economic downturn? And think about the FTF hounds!

Edited by Erickson

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To me, "what it will be" is as interesting than "when it will be." Will the millionth cache be a lamp post hide, a magnetic key holder on a guard rail, or a nano stuck on the underside of a bench? Or will it be a molded brick facade stuck to the supports of a bridge? (Sorry.) To get the date AND the type of container right would be an achievement worthy of a remote viewer, like Ed Dames. (sorry again)

 

Which brings to mind two other questions, even more off topic. Can Groundspeak control the numbers and place one as awe-inspiring as the Tunnel of Light APE cache as the "official" millionth cache? Or hold a mega-event to unveil it?

 

And will we see a rash of small tupperware, seemingly tossed out of the car window into a bush, all trying to get the magic number? And what will be the social effect? Will sales of small plastic containers and cheap swag suddenly go up, causing stocks to rise, bringing us out of the economic downturn? And talk about the FTF hounds!

Actually the 1 millionth ACTIVE cache will be an ever moving target as caches are archived and withdrawn.

 

We are long since past the 1 millionth publication.

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Actually the 1 millionth ACTIVE cache will be an ever moving target as caches are archived and withdrawn.

 

We are long since past the 1 millionth publication.

 

I forgot the word "active," but that is precisely the reason why there needs to be an official one. If you can pick a date, you can pick a cache. But since it might be a moving target, perhaps Groundspeak could change their policy (this once) and make it a moving cache!

Edited by Erickson

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792,137 Tuesday, May 05, 2009

797,190 Monday May 11 am

804,108 may 20

813,170 may 31 roughly 808 per day in May

870,256 Aug 10

910,640 sept 29

 

916,547 Oct 7 738 daily

924,213 Oct 19 638 daily

924,781 Oct 20

925,540 Oct 21

928,022 oct 25 659 over 3 days....

935,404 Nov 6 615 daily last 12 days

946,694 Nov 24

 

In an attempt at a more scientific estimation, I took the info above and plotted it on a

graph like so:

 

0b70b1ed-4ba6-4d98-9d8f-e521c24fba6d.jpg

 

I did not quite know how to interpret and extrapolate trendlines using the Excel serial dates, so I converted the dates to "days after 20090505" - the initial date in the list above. I suspect that cache placing should decrease because it is winter in the Northern Hemisphere (where most of the caching activity takes place), but the graph does not show much of a trend to reflect this (then again the time span only includes the "good" caching season for the northern hemisphere). I added a polynomial trendline - a bit more flexible than a straight line.

 

That polynomial predicts 10E6 caches at 288/289 days after 20090505 = 20100215. I will add another month due to reduced caching activity in the northern hemisphere, so my educated guess is 20100315 or 15 March 2010. I'm thinking April 1 2010 is not a bad guess at all.

Edited by the pooks

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Can we make a deal?

 

On the geocaching.com home page, there is a number which represents the number of active geocaches at the time of viewing the page. And to be honest, it is an assumption on my part wrt how often that number is updated.

 

Nevertheless, it is likely that that number, whether or not it is ever displayed, will be equal to 1,000,000 at some point. I think that most reasonable cachers would be quite satisfied and agreeable if the techies at geocaching.com would make that event known, you know, if it can be done without too much difficulty.

 

If there is no practical way to do that, then there will never be a way to know. It would seem to me that it will be one or the other and worrying and speculating and cyphering about it 'til the cows come home won't make a bit of difference. If there is no way to know when the magic number happens, then no one's prediction is meaningful.

 

I did not use the word 'active' since my reference to the home page took care of that for me. I hope that that is ok with everyone.

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And to be honest, it is an assumption on my part wrt how often that number is updated.

 

It's updated once in 24 hours

 

Many people are watching that number now. One day it will be 999,xxx, some number roughly 500 or so less than 1,000,000. And the next day it will be over 1 million. That will be well broadcast on these forums. The precise 1,000,000 active cache(s) may not be known, but the day that the number of active caches passes 1 million certainly will be.

Edited by Isonzo Karst

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I think we are all talking about the same figure - the "active caches" on the home page. One day, sometime in the future, the number will jump from something < 1E6 to something > 1E6, that is the date what we are guessing. Hopefully the number will continually rise, otherwise we are stuffed - there could be more than one such a date. In the end it is all a frivolous game - nothing more, or nothing less than that.

 

Only the techies would be able to break it down to the exact cache that could technically be called the milestone. There's a couple of hundred cahes being published and archived every day.

 

In cricket, they fill up the quiet moments with stats - I suppose that is the same thing we do with caching.

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I think we are all talking about the same figure - the "active caches" on the home page. One day, sometime in the future, the number will jump from something < 1E6 to something > 1E6, that is the date what we are guessing. Hopefully the number will continually rise, otherwise we are stuffed - there could be more than one such a date. In the end it is all a frivolous game - nothing more, or nothing less than that.

 

Only the techies would be able to break it down to the exact cache that could technically be called the milestone. There's a couple of hundred cahes being published and archived every day.

 

In cricket, they fill up the quiet moments with stats - I suppose that is the same thing we do with caching.

 

We?

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And to be honest, it is an assumption on my part wrt how often that number is updated.

 

It's updated once in 24 hours

 

Many people are watching that number now. One day it will be 999,xxx, some number roughly 500 or so less than 1,000,000. And the next day it will be over 1 million. That will be well broadcast on these forums. The precise 1,000,000 active cache(s) may not be known, but the day that the number of active caches passes 1 million certainly will be.

 

"That will be well broadcast on these forums."

 

Lord help me, of that I have no doubt whatsoever. :laughing::lol::laughing:

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I think we are all talking about the same figure - the "active caches" on the home page. One day, sometime in the future, the number will jump from something < 1E6 to something > 1E6, that is the date what we are guessing. Hopefully the number will continually rise, otherwise we are stuffed - there could be more than one such a date. In the end it is all a frivolous game - nothing more, or nothing less than that.

 

Only the techies would be able to break it down to the exact cache that could technically be called the milestone. There's a couple of hundred cahes being published and archived every day.

 

In cricket, they fill up the quiet moments with stats - I suppose that is the same thing we do with caching.

 

That may well be true. It's just that you'd never know it judging by reading the postings. Well except for mine of course. :laughing:

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Im going to change the subject a bit and guess that it will happen before the end of the year. That would be nice on Christmas to wake up to a million caches. But another question, how many caches have been archived since the dawn of time?

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Im going to change the subject a bit and guess that it will happen before the end of the year. That would be nice on Christmas to wake up to a million caches. But another question, how many caches have been archived since the dawn of time?

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3/12/2010.

 

I originally thought it would be sometime in Feb, but the number of new caches added daily is slowing down, no doubt due to winter coming on, so the date in now about 100 days out.

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That polynomial predicts 10E6 caches at 288/289 days after 20090505 = 20100215. I will add another month due to reduced caching activity in the northern hemisphere, so my educated guess is 20100315 or 15 March 2010. I'm thinking April 1 2010 is not a bad guess at all.

Conspiracy theory... Groundspeak have been planning an April fools joke for some years now. :angry:

 

My guess - February 12. Things will ramp up as it gets close. (Edit) Just saw Feb 12 is taken in the sweep so I will go Feb 14

Edited by bshwckr

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http://www.geocaching.com/seek/cache_details.aspx?ID=1485000

 

"...another question, how many caches have been archived...."

 

The URL above is of a Dec 1 cache. So 1,485,000 cache pages have been created, and as of today there are

950,321 active caches. That leaves 534679 cache listings not active. Not all of those are archived, some percentage were never published. I've got 6? or more cache pages written up, unpublished. There must be a bunch of them. Still, a lot of archived hides.

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3/12/2010.

 

I originally thought it would be sometime in Feb, but the number of new caches added daily is slowing down, no doubt due to winter coming on, so the date in now about 100 days out.

Your forgetting the post-christmas newbie rush.

 

I'm guessing around Jan 30th.

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My prediction for when the active cache count reaches 1,000,000 is February 2, 2010. I did some deductive reasoning to figure this out. I bet you my guess is within a week of the historic date. :)

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3/12/2010.

 

I originally thought it would be sometime in Feb, but the number of new caches added daily is slowing down, no doubt due to winter coming on, so the date in now about 100 days out.

Your forgetting the post-christmas newbie rush.

 

I'm guessing around Jan 30th.

 

Excellent point. There is indeed a post-christmas newbie rush in Geocaching. I'd say it's mostly finding though. We don't want those newbies hiding any caches until they have 100 finds!! (Just kidding).

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December 21, 2012.

 

I know that's longer than most people are predicting, but I hear that the reviewers have been doing maintenance runs through the database and archiving old inactive caches.

 

Plus I think it would be cool if the odometer turns over on the number of active caches on the same day the Mayan calendar runs out and the Apocalypse starts. :)

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...I think it would be cool if the odometer turns over on the number of active caches on the same day the Mayan calendar runs out and the Apocalypse starts

 

Well some number of active caches is going to turn over on the day the Mayan calendar runs out....;-)

 

and the Apocalypse starts?

 

growth of caches per day now down below 500 .... it must be cold somewhere - it's warm and muggy in Florida, per norm.

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...I think it would be cool if the odometer turns over on the number of active caches on the same day the Mayan calendar runs out and the Apocalypse starts

 

Well some number of active caches is going to turn over on the day the Mayan calendar runs out....;-)

 

and the Apocalypse starts?

 

growth of caches per day now down below 500 .... it must be cold somewhere - it's warm and muggy in Florida, per norm.

 

I do not care what you say. It is not always warm and muggy down there. Sometimes it's hot and muggy.

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...I think it would be cool if the odometer turns over on the number of active caches on the same day the Mayan calendar runs out and the Apocalypse starts

 

Well some number of active caches is going to turn over on the day the Mayan calendar runs out....;-)

 

and the Apocalypse starts?

 

growth of caches per day now down below 500 .... it must be cold somewhere - it's warm and muggy in Florida, per norm.

 

I knew the Australians and New Zealanders would let us down, and not place enough summer caches during our winter.

 

Nothing is going to happen when the Mayan calendar runs out. They couldn't even invent metal tools. You think they could predict the end of the world?

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