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GPS Accuracy Could Start Dropping in 2010


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My guess is that this is a scare tactic designed to get more funding from Congress, but who knows?

 

Article http://db.tidbits.com/article/10276

 

GAO Report http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-325

 

I think this is combination of someone finding a report and panicking about it and someone writing an article to get attention. There are currently 31 satellites in orbit with 11 planned launches in the next 2 years. Not to mention the Galileo system is in progress as well...

 

StaticTank

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My guess is that this is a scare tactic designed to get more funding from Congress, but who knows?

No worries, the world will end in Dec 2012 anyway.

 

On a more serious note, what may be more likely is a license fee on every GPS chipset sold to fund the system.

I thought this thread was going to be about Cycle 24, the predicted sunspot cycle that will disrupt the signals. It's predicted to peak in May 2013 (unless Chrysalides is right, and then we have nothing to worry about). Of course, if it's big enough, instead of geocaching we can all watch the auroras. :unsure:

 

More information here: http://www.physorg.com/news161026403.html

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My guess is that this is a scare tactic designed to get more funding from Congress, but who knows?

No worries, the world will end in Dec 2012 anyway.

 

On a more serious note, what may be more likely is a license fee on every GPS chipset sold to fund the system.

I thought this thread was going to be about Cycle 24, the predicted sunspot cycle that will disrupt the signals. It's predicted to peak in May 2013 (unless Chrysalides is right, and then we have nothing to worry about). Of course, if it's big enough, instead of geocaching we can all watch the auroras. :unsure:

 

More information here: http://www.physorg.com/news161026403.html

 

It's not Chrysalides, it's the Azteks!

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My guess is that this is a scare tactic designed to get more funding from Congress, but who knows?

No worries, the world will end in Dec 2012 anyway.

 

On a more serious note, what may be more likely is a license fee on every GPS chipset sold to fund the system.

I thought this thread was going to be about Cycle 24, the predicted sunspot cycle that will disrupt the signals. It's predicted to peak in May 2013 (unless Chrysalides is right, and then we have nothing to worry about). Of course, if it's big enough, instead of geocaching we can all watch the auroras. :ph34r:

 

More information here: http://www.physorg.com/news161026403.html

 

It's not Chrysalides, it's the Azteks!

Aztecs, Mayans, Chrysalides? Whoever it is, I'm with knowschad and his retirement plan! :unsure:

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Not to worry. The army relies on GPS too much to let it loose accuracy. There is no chance of this happening.

The Army can keep accuracy and the gubment can reduce it for us civilians.

They could, but the issue being discussed here is a reduction in accuracy due to old satellites failing and the launch of new ones being delayed due to industry and bureaucratic problems, not any deliberate reduction in accuracy by the military.

 

What Andronicus meant was that in order for the military to maintain the accuracy it needs, they would have to make sure the satellites are up to the task, which means that they would also be up to the task of providing civilian users with the accuracy we’ve become accustomed to.

 

The issue of the military or U.S. government deliberately reducing the accuracy is a different topic; but the next generation of satellites is designed to allow an increase in the accuracy of civilian GPS. It seems unlikely that the government would go to the expense of building in that improved capability and then deliberately reduce civilian accuracy in any normal situation.

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Not to worry. The army relies on GPS too much to let it loose accuracy. There is no chance of this happening.

The Army can keep accuracy and the gubment can reduce it for us civilians.

They could, but the issue being discussed here is a reduction in accuracy due to old satellites failing and the launch of new ones being delayed due to industry and bureaucratic problems, not any deliberate reduction in accuracy by the military.

 

What Andronicus meant was that in order for the military to maintain the accuracy it needs, they would have to make sure the satellites are up to the task, which means that they would also be up to the task of providing civilian users with the accuracy we’ve become accustomed to.

 

The issue of the military or U.S. government deliberately reducing the accuracy is a different topic; but the next generation of satellites is designed to allow an increase in the accuracy of civilian GPS. It seems unlikely that the government would go to the expense of building in that improved capability and then deliberately reduce civilian accuracy in any normal situation.

 

Not to mention that the euro's system will be up soon, and we are going to get GPS/Gallalao combo units that use both systems to increase accuracy to 10cm or something like that.

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I would like to thank the American taxpayer for all their support of this game so far. You guys rock!

 

Since I was able to find caches with my crusty old GPS60, even when there were a few leaves overhead, then I could probably still find 'em with a state-of-the-art 60Cx, even though it's locked onto a few satellites that are sputtering and flickering.

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An interesting read: http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2009/...breakdown\

 

It has become one of the staples of modern, hi-tech life: using satellite navigation tools built into your car or mobile phone to find your way from A to B. But experts have warned that the system may be close to breakdown.

 

US government officials are concerned that the quality of the Global Positioning System (GPS) could begin to deteriorate as early as next year, resulting in regular blackouts and failures – or even dishing out inaccurate directions to millions of people worldwide.

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I'd be surprised if anyone in the US government was actually OK with letting it fail – it's too useful," he told the Guardian

 

Perhaps just wishful thinking, but I tend to agree with this statement. There's just too much riding on National Security to allow it to fail.

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or even dishing out inaccurate directions to millions of people worldwide.[/i]

 

The satellites don't dish out directions they only tell you where you are. It is up the receiver to dish out directions.

 

Why do news outlets love disaster? This will not happen.

 

Think of all the jobs that GPS provides. Every company that makes receivers employs people. That is a lot of jobs. Plus the government and various agencies rely on the system too much it will not fail...

 

StaticTank

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US government officials are concerned that the quality of the Global Positioning System (GPS) could begin to deteriorate as early as next year, resulting in regular blackouts and failures – or even dishing out inaccurate directions to millions of people worldwide.[/i]

What a splendid situation.

Think about the revenue that would give to those who manufacture GPS'rs.

Everbody would have to buy new receivers for GLONASS or Galileo or maybe both.

 

A dream situation (for someone). :(

 

Edit typo

Edited by baø
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Upon re-reading the article, I will say that it is seriously lacking in attributing their information. About all there is is this: said the report, presented to Congress. and this Tom Coates, the head of Yahoo's Fire Eagle system... said

 

However, I did find this site referring to the launch schedule being delayed:

http://www.insidegnss.com/node/831#Baseban...chnologies_Inc_

 

and Boing's satellite launch schedule including GPS satellites:

http://www.boeing.com/defense-space/space/...unch_sched.html

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I'm glad I learned to navigate with the "Thomas Guide" before the GPS. Can you imagine all those people who are totally dependent on blindly following their Road GPSRs?

 

Even a "blip" on the system could put their lives in "utter chaos." :(

Edited by Kit Fox
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Maybe I should relist all my hides as multis? B)

"Stage one is a 55 gallon drum with a compass and 2.4 miles of string. Hold the compass flat in your palm and turn until the red end of the arrow points at the red mark on the front of the compass. Walk in that direction until you run out of string. Stage two, an ammo can, should be at your feet."

:huh::D;):(

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The satellites don't dish out directions they only tell you where you are. It is up the receiver to dish out directions.

The satellites don't even tell you where you are. They tell the receiver where they are. The receiver uses that information to calculate where it is.

Just to be pedantic about it, the satellites actually broadcast what time it is :(

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In 2012 when the magnetic poles of the earth reverse, all the satellites are going to come crashing down anyway! :(

 

I better start designing a steel anti falling satellite umbrella now if I'm going to get it to market with enough time to make a few bucks before 2012.

 

Something a little stronger than aluminum foil would be nice. :D

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Why do news outlets love disaster? This will not happen.

 

Think of all the jobs that GPS provides. Every company that makes receivers employs people. That is a lot of jobs. Plus the government and various agencies rely on the system too much it will not fail...

"Too big to fail?" No, we Detroiters know how that goes. They'll throw a bunch of money at it, then force it to fail anyway because really they prefer what other countries make.

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The problem is all those new Geomate jr's sucking up all the coords from the sats. I say the time has come to limit the access of the gps system to official military and registered geocaching uses only. This way we won't run out of coords until at least 2012. After that it doesn't really matter anyways.

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In 2012 when the magnetic poles of the earth reverse, all the satellites are going to come crashing down anyway! :(

 

I better start designing a steel anti falling satellite umbrella now if I'm going to get it to market with enough time to make a few bucks before 2012.

 

Something a little stronger than aluminum foil would be nice. :D

 

Thanks for the input. A double layer it is.

 

By the way, you still aren't getting a cut of the proceeds.

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Maybe I should relist all my hides as multis? :ph34r:

"Stage one is a 55 gallon drum with a compass and 2.4 miles of string. Hold the compass flat in your palm and turn until the red end of the arrow points at the red mark on the front of the compass. Walk in that direction until you run out of string. Stage two, an ammo can, should be at your feet."

:lol::laughing::P:o

 

:blink::laughing::laughing:

 

In 2012 when the magnetic poles of the earth reverse, all the satellites are going to come crashing down anyway! :laughing:

 

:unsure: Are you sure about them crashing down? If the poles reverse doesn't that mean we'll just have to walk backwards to the cache location?

 

MrsB

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Bah.

"The problem: Delays in launching replacement satellites, among other things."

 

True, the IIFs have had a number of delays, but the fact is most of the satellites have

been performing much better an expected (often 2x the expected/spec'd life span). You

only need 24 operational SVs for full earth coverage, and there are currently 30

operational with a couple spares up there too.

 

I think the main risk of failure is if there are problems with the IIFs. There is only

one IIR left to launch, so if we get a bunch of old SVs dying all of a sudden and no

working IIFs to replenish...then you'll have problems.

 

IMO

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Ok everyone, settle down:

 

Air Force Responds to GPS Outage Concerns

 

The sky isn't falling and neither is the Global Positioning System, the U.S. Air Force said during a Twitter news conference. "No, the GPS will not go down," tweeted Col. Dave Buckman of the Air Force's Space Command. "GAO points out, there is potential risk associated with a degradation in GPS performance."

...

 

Read more at

http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/arti...e_concerns.html

 

:anibad:

Edited by SUp3rFM & Cruella
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My post from a similar thread;

 

The report was released by the GAO. Do some research on the GAO. It is as much a a political tool as it is an investigative agency. Who has the most to gain and who has the most to loose from this report and article being published? I have had several of my bosses describe their encounters with the GAO. If your testimony and/or analysis is not what they want to hear, it can be easily set aside and not included in the final report. Conversely, if its exactly what they want to hear, the whole report can be based on one individual's inputs irregardless of accuracy or factual basis. The GPS satellites are getting older but the sky isn't falling quite yet.

 

Question: how many satellites does it take to get an accurate fix for aviation? How many birds are up there?

 

-galaP-

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Question: how many satellites does it take to get an accurate fix for aviation? How many birds are up there?

 

I would assume aviators would want a 3D fix, so they would need 4 satellites in view.

 

As far as how many are up there...I'm not at work, so I don't have my cheat-sheet in front of me, but from memory: 30 operational which you can use the nav signal from; SVN49, the new one which is having issues and not set healthy (so you can't use the signal), and at least 3 spares (32, 37, and 35 (though I'm not sure if 35 is considered a really usable spare. It was just "retired" but it hasn't been decommissioned)).

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In 2012 when the magnetic poles of the earth reverse, all the satellites are going to come crashing down anyway! :P

 

I better start designing a steel anti falling satellite umbrella now if I'm going to get it to market with enough time to make a few bucks before 2012.

An aluminum foil hat will do the trick.

Edited by billslake
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