Statistics - bend it anyway you like!

[+Danie Viljoen]

Number of new caches per province:

 

Province    End 2012  End 2013	End 2014  New  % increase
KZN	      1869	2646	  3230	  584	  22.1%
Gauteng	      3270	4001	  4562	  561	  14.0%
Western Cape  2380	2938	  3415	  477	  16.2%
Eastern Cape   957	1449	  1829	  380	  26.2%
Mpumalanga     994	1148	  1243	   95	   8.3%
North West     394	 460	   527	   67	  14.6%
Free State     692	 777	   839	   62	   8.0%
Limpopo	       406       442	   466	   24	   5.4%
Northern Cape  189	 208	   226	   18	   8.7%

South Africa 11151     14069	 16337	 2268	  16.1%

As in 2013, KZN had the most new caches, but percentage-wise the Eastern Cape once again had the biggest increase. More than half of all the new caches were placed in KZN and Gauteng.

[+Carbon Hunter]

Most new South African caches published in 2014:

 

1.  PieterM:	       74 caches
2.  AdieA:	       62 caches
3.  Louwtjie&Vroutjie: 53 caches
4.  TechnoNut:	       51 caches
5.  waco&winnie:       46 caches
6.  SKATTIE@1:	       45 caches
7.  LegoMikey:	       35 caches
8.  Team_Bateleur:     34 caches
9.  Sclanders Clan:    31 caches
10. KINGOSRIC:	       31 caches

 

6 of these from KZN. A real resurgence in caching in KZN in the past year or two. Great to see.

[+Carbon Hunter]

 

Of these 8083 cachers, 2078 were "active", in the sense that they found an average of at least 1 cache/month during 2014. (15% more than the 1806 in 2013).

 

Good to see that there are more cachers that are being dedicated (i.e. not just starting then stopping) - but continuing on for a good few caches. Hopefully this will grow the numbers countrywide.

 

Number of new caches per province:

 

Province    End 2012  End 2013	End 2014  New  % increase
KZN	      1869	2646	  3230	  584	  22.1%
Gauteng	      3270	4001	  4562	  561	  14.0%
Western Cape  2380	2938	  3415	  477	  16.2%
Eastern Cape   957	1449	  1829	  380	  26.2%
Mpumalanga     994	1148	  1243	   95	   8.3%
North West     394	 460	   527	   67	  14.6%
Free State     692	 777	   839	   62	   8.0%
Limpopo	       406       442	   466	   24	   5.4%
Northern Cape  189	 208	   226	   18	   8.7%

South Africa 11151     14069	 16337	 2268	  16.1%

As in 2013, KZN had the most new caches, but percentage-wise the Eastern Cape once again had the biggest increase. More than half of all the new caches were placed in KZN and Gauteng.

 

Interesting that you see a "Drought" in Gauteng in some stats - but they still show a 14% growth.

[+Danie Viljoen]

New cachers in 2014:

 

During 2014 a total of 8083 cachers found at least one cache in South Africa. Of these, 5322 (or 65.8%) found their first cache during 2014. To put it differently, 2 out of every 3 cachers in South Africa last year were newbies!

 

22% of all the cachers last year found only one cache.

50% of all the caches found in South Africa last year were found by the top 268 cachers (the top 3.3%)

80% of all the caches found in South Africa last year were found by the top 1439 cachers (the top 17.8%)

The bottom half of all the cachers last year found only 5.1% of the finds in South Africa.

[+cincol]

Most caches placed in 2014, per province:

 

Western Cape:

1. PieterM:	      70
2. Louwtjie&Vroutjie: 52
3. SKATTIE@1:	      44
4. Suikerbossies:     24
5. Evolutionaries:    22

 

Gauteng:

1. AdieA:	      62
2. SpiderFinder:      26
3. SyntaxSA:	      25
4. Leon St:	      23
5. geocacher_coza:    17

 

KZN:

1. TechnoNut:	      47
2. waco&winnie:	      46
3. LegoMikey:	      35
4. Team_Bateleur:     34
5. KINGOSRIC:	      31

 

Eastern Cape:

1. erenei:	      28
2. NaviMate:	      27
3. ChrisDen:	      26
4. George c12:	      20
5. iPajero:	      19

 

Free State:

1. HCXT1:	      27
2. Nicklaas:	       6
3. Team Redelinghuys:  5

 

North West:

1. cincol:	      20
2. Thrips:	       5
2. Team Tip Top:       5
4. Bekster77:	       4

 

Mpumalanga:

1. Bouts777:	      17
2. mvubu147:	      15
3. surreptitious007:   9
3. Scooby-Doo101:      9
5. Xpedition.co.za:    6

 

Limpopo:

1. Bekster77:	       5
2. hennieventer:       4
3. minidinipics:       3
4. Mooiman:	       2
4. Scooby-Doo101:      2

 

Northern Cape:

1. Karoodogter:	       5
2. iPajero:	       4
3. PieterM:	       3

 

WOW - I really expected the Gauteng cachers to have had higher figures?

[+cincol]

Most new South African caches published in 2014:

 

1.  PieterM:	       74 caches
2.  AdieA:	       62 caches
3.  Louwtjie&Vroutjie: 53 caches
4.  TechnoNut:	       51 caches
5.  waco&winnie:       46 caches
6.  SKATTIE@1:	       45 caches
7.  LegoMikey:	       35 caches
8.  Team_Bateleur:     34 caches
9.  Sclanders Clan:    31 caches
10. KINGOSRIC:	       31 caches

 

6 of these from KZN. A real resurgence in caching in KZN in the past year or two. Great to see.

 

I'm sure that the MEGA played a big role in that!

[+Riisearch]

Hey Danie Viljoen,

 

Can you see who has found the most caches within a 1km (or less) of the N1 and N2, between Cape Town and P.E?

 

Thanks,

Riis

[+Danie Viljoen]

Can you see who has found the most caches within a 1km (or less) of the N1 and N2, between Cape Town and P.E?

The N1 does not go to P.E.?

[+Danie Viljoen]

There are 266 caches within 1km of the N2 between Cape Town and P.E. (coast to coast). Of these, 98 caches have been archived. The top finders of these 266 caches are:

1.  The Huskies:	    190 finds
2.  iPajero:	            182 finds
3.  cownchicken:	    178 finds
4.  PieterM:	            149 finds
5.  NaviMate:	            135 finds
6.  Wikkelgat:	            126 finds
7.  battlerat and pussycat: 123 finds
8.  Tricky Vicky & Mickey:  121 finds
9.  Mixs:	            119 finds
10. terunkie:	            112 finds

These caches have been found 16689 times by 2932 cachers.

[+Danie Viljoen]

Most found caches in South Africa during 2014:

 

1.  GC2GG2C  Nobel  Square	                  City of Cape Town  Western Cape  340 finds
2.  GC31WXR  Table Mountain Travel Bug Hotel	  City of Cape Town  Western Cape  285 finds
3.  GC2D9WC  SS: Lusitania	                  City of Cape Town  Western Cape  206 finds
4.  GCMYYZ   Table Top Trove	                  City of Cape Town  Western Cape  172 finds
5.  GC4H10K  GOS: Whale Crier	                  Overberg	     Western Cape  145 finds
6.  GC2CG7X  Hiddingh Security TB Hotel	          City of Cape Town  Western Cape  141 finds
7.  GC37VF3  Tip of Africa	                  Overberg	     Western Cape  140 finds
8.  GC4FXQG  Purple rain	                  City of Cape Town  Western Cape  138 finds
9.  GC2AA8R  SS: RMS Athens	                  City of Cape Town  Western Cape  130 finds
10. GC25FXK  van Riebeeck's Hedge	          City of Cape Town  Western Cape  129 finds

12. GC4P942  Stoned	                          Ethekwini	     Kwazulu Natal 120 finds
21. GC3Q7KH  All In Good Time	                  Nkangala	     Mpumalanga	   106 finds
27. GC3WXRQ  MEGA SA 2012 -Voortrekker "Uitspan"  City of Tshwane    Gauteng	    97 finds

The top 10 most found caches are all in the Western Cape. KZN comes in at no. 12, Mpumalanga at no. 21 and Gauteng at no. 27.

[+Danie Viljoen]

Most DNFs in South Africa during 2014:

 

The following caches received the most DNFs during 2014:

1. GCVCB4   Storms Death Walk	                          D=3	 35 DNFs
2. GC3G9YQ  Mother City Meander Series - Company Gardens  D=1.5	 25 DNFs
3. GC4HG1E  Rock Paper Shark	                          D=1.5	 18 DNFs
4. GC2JMX3  Gate to knowhere	                          D=1.5	 16 DNFs
5. GC2V1YM  CITTA	                                  D=1	 15 DNFs
5. GC3WE52  The Little Wooden Bridge	                  D=3	 15 DNFs
5. GC2ZQBE  GPS - Sharp Turn Sign 3 - NB 18	          D=1.5	 15 DNFs
5. GCVXMC   Bridge over the river Berg  -  WC	          D=2	 15 DNFs

It is interesting to notice that most of these caches have relatively low Difficulty ratings, which does not make sense to me at all!

[+Danie Viljoen]

Most DNFs logged in South Africa during 2014:

 

1.  AdieA:	 171
2.  Voëlhond:	 113
3.  TechnoNut:	 112
4.  iPajero:	  91
4.  Team Venter:  91
6.  Andredj:	  88
7.  Ken.woodworm: 86
7.  Orosman:	  86
9.  Delbadore:	  80
10. SpiderFinder: 77

[+battlerat and pussycat]

Most DNFs logged in South Africa during 2014:

 

1.  AdieA:	 171
2.  Voëlhond:	 113
3.  TechnoNut:	 112
4.  iPajero:	  91
4.  Team Venter:  91
6.  Andredj:	  88
7.  Ken.woodworm: 86
7.  Orosman:	  86
9.  Delbadore:	  80
10. SpiderFinder: 77

 

Hi,

 

For the DNFs could you perhaps also publish the number of finds for the cachers in question?

[+Danie Viljoen]

Where did we cache in 2014?

 

Gauteng:      43991 finds (28.2% of the total)
Western Cape: 38877 finds (24.9% of the total)
KZN:	      30435 finds (19.5% of the total)
Eastern Cape: 20767 finds (13.3% of the total)
Free State:    7447 finds ( 4.8% of the total)
Mpumalanga:    6188 finds ( 4.0% of the total)
North West:    4642 finds ( 3.0% of the total)
Limpopo:       2555 finds ( 1.6% of the total)
Northern Cape: 1206 finds ( 0.8% of the total)

The top 4 provinces together got 86 of the finds.

[+Danie Viljoen]

For the DNFs could you perhaps also publish the number of finds for the cachers in question?

1.  AdieA	171 DNFs, 1416 finds
2.  Voëlhond	113 DNFs, 1012 finds
3.  TechnoNut	112 DNFs,  994 finds
4.  iPajero	 91 DNFs, 1484 finds
4.  Team Venter	 91 DNFs,  848 finds
6.  Andredj	 88 DNFs,  616 finds
7.  Ken.woodworm 86 DNFs,  778 finds
7.  Orosman	 86 DNFs,  490 finds
9.  Delbadore	 80 DNFs,  407 finds
10. SpiderFinder 77 DNFs,  666 finds

[+battlerat and pussycat]

For the DNFs could you perhaps also publish the number of finds for the cachers in question?

1.  AdieA	171 DNFs, 1416 finds
2.  Voëlhond	113 DNFs, 1012 finds
3.  TechnoNut	112 DNFs,  994 finds
4.  iPajero	 91 DNFs, 1484 finds
4.  Team Venter	 91 DNFs,  848 finds
6.  Andredj	 88 DNFs,  616 finds
7.  Ken.woodworm 86 DNFs,  778 finds
7.  Orosman	 86 DNFs,  490 finds
9.  Delbadore	 80 DNFs,  407 finds
10. SpiderFinder 77 DNFs,  666 finds

 

Thanks. So it seems like even the most experienced cachers will only typically find 85-90% of caches they visit. Except iPajero, according to my quick calculation that has a find ratio of 94%.

[+Danie Viljoen]

DNFs per Cache size during 2014:

 

Micro:	    6.62% of attempts
Small:	    5.33% of attempts
Other:	    4.39% of attempts
Regular:    3.71% of attempts
Not chosen: 3.25% of attempts
Large:	    1.41% of attempts
Virtual:    0.00% of attempts

Total:	    5.51% of attempts

[+Danie Viljoen]

So it seems like even the most experienced cachers will only typically find 85-90% of caches they visit. Except iPajero, according to my quick calculation that has a find ratio of 94%.

I am afraid it is very dangerous to draw any conclusions from DNF numbers. In my experience very few cachers log all their DNFs, and those that do have different interpretations of when it should be a DNF and when a Note. With some exceptions I have found that the more experienced cachers actually have LOWER find ratios than newbies, but I suspect it is because they tend to log more accurately and/or they attempt more difficult caches.

 

As you can see in my previous posting, the number for all South African cachers is 5.51% DNFs, or to state it as a find ratio: 94.49%. I don't believe this number for one moment - I don't even come close to this (and as you have pointed out, even iPajero has a lower find ratio!)

Edited January 7, 2015 by Danie Viljoen

[+Danie Viljoen]

Archive ratio per province:

These numbers are for 2014, based on the number of active caches in each province at the end of the year (excluding Event caches of all types). What this means is that KZN lost 13.3% of its active caches during last year, and the Northern Cape only 1.8%.

1. Kwazulu Natal: 13.3%
2. North West:	  11.1%
3. Western Cape:   8.8%
4. Mpumalanga:	   8.1%
5. Eastern Cape:   8.0%
6. Gauteng:	   7.3%
7. Free State:	   5.2%
8. Limpopo:	   2.9%
9. Northern Cape:  1.8%

  RSA	           8.7%

[+Danie Viljoen]

Find ratio per province during 2014:

 

1. Western Cape:  94.0%
2. Kwazulu Natal: 93.9%
3. North West:	  93.8%
4. Free State:	  93.5%
5. Eastern Cape:  93.5%
6. Limpopo:	  92.5%
7. Gauteng:	  92.5%
8. Mpumalanga:	  92.4%
9. Northern Cape: 90.9%

  RSA:	          93.3%

The numbers differ slightly from a previous posting because I excluded events here. As I have stated before - I don't believe these numbers reflect the real find ratio because I suspect that DNFs are seriously underreported. It is however interesting to compare the numbers for the different provinces.

[+Danie Viljoen]

Cache size:

The next graph shows the percentage of new caches of each size, over the years. In 2001, for example, 86% of all new caches were Regular size; last year only 6% of the new caches were Regular.

 

[+Danie Viljoen]

Who traveled the most in 2014?

 

The following cachers all found caches in all 9 provinces:

AdieA
The Huskies
Voëlhond
cownchicken
dolos
series land rover
cincol
Belcan
Spidershrek

 

The following cachers found caches in the most district municipalities:

1. iPajero:	       38
2. TechnoNut:	       36
3. The Huskies:       33
3. dolos:	       33
5. AdieA:	       29
5. ChrisDen:	       29
7. Porky2:	       28
7. series land rover: 28
9. cincol:	       27
10. Belcan:	       26

[+Delbadore]

Thanks for the awesome stats, Danie Viljoen! Please keep them coming

[+cincol]

Archive ratio per province:

These numbers are for 2014, based on the number of active caches in each province at the end of the year (excluding Event caches of all types). What this means is that KZN lost 13.3% of its active caches during last year, and the Northern Cape only 1.8%.

1. Kwazulu Natal: 13.3%
2. North West:	  11.1%
3. Western Cape:   8.8%
4. Mpumalanga:	   8.1%
5. Eastern Cape:   8.0%
6. Gauteng:	   7.3%
7. Free State:	   5.2%
8. Limpopo:	   2.9%
9. Northern Cape:  1.8%

  RSA	           8.7%

 

Thanks Danie. North West figures don't look good here at all.... coming off a low base of caches that means that far too many have been "lost".

[+cincol]

Cache size:

The next graph shows the percentage of new caches of each size, over the years. In 2001, for example, 86% of all new caches were Regular size; last year only 6% of the new caches were Regular.

 

 

If this is for SA then I am sure it probably reflects the trends of other countries as well. IMHO I think that as the cache numbers have climbed and cache density has has increased the "available urban space" has subsequently decreased leading to smaller caches being placed. I also think that security has played a big role too.

 

My 2c worth.

[+Danie Viljoen]

Cache types over the years:

 

 

• 
   
  
• Traditional caches decreased from 94% of all new caches in 2001 (when there were admittedly fewer cache types available) to an all-time low of 69% in 2014.
  
• Mystery caches are currently in the no. 2 position; their popularity has been growing steadily since 2011.
  
• Events are also at an all-time high - 7.8% of all new caches (one out of every 13) last year were events.
  
• Multi-caches, like traditional caches, have been losing ground for many years.
  
• EarthCaches are making a comeback - a record number have been published last year. (As a percentage of the total it is not back at the peak of 2009 yet.)
  

Edited January 9, 2015 by Danie Viljoen

[+Danie Viljoen]

Find distribution per cache:

 

What this graph shows is that 3.8% of the active South African caches were not found at all during 2014, 6.1% were found once, etc.

The average number of finds per cache was 13.8

The median number of finds per cache was 10

[+Danie Viljoen]

Finds per Cache Size:

 

This graph shows the average number of finds per cache size in South Africa during 2014:

 

This one really surprised me. Nothing surprising about the large number of finds for Large caches, but that Regular did so poorly vs. Micro. I have two possible explanations:

• Relatively few new Regular caches were placed during 2014. (New caches draw considerably more cachers than older ones.) That, however, does not explain why Small also did poorly.
  
• Maybe it has something to do with the fact that there are many more micros in the cities, where there are more cachers.
  

Edited January 12, 2015 by Danie Viljoen

[+Fier]

Could you produce the same graph but for 'placed' instead of 'found'?

[+Danie Viljoen]

the same graph but for 'placed' instead of 'found'?

[+Carbon Hunter]

I see "Not Chosen" will be dropped/changed in the near future as per the new updates.

[+Danie Viljoen]

I see "Not Chosen" will be dropped/changed in the near future as per the new updates.

That makes sense - it is not currently being used consistently. It is the default "container" for events of all types, but somehow it gets used for tradional caches as well, especially for those with unusual containers, which in my opinion should rather be "Other". Do you know what the new default for events will be?

[+Carbon Hunter]

It will be "Other" - for events, Earthcaches too etc.

[+cincol]

I hope the "not chosen" will go as well.

[+Fier]

the same graph but for 'placed' instead of 'found'?

 

 

I fnd it difficult to understand that large and virtual has more average finds than others when there is none and fee new ones of these sizes, so I find these graphs very interesting.

 

Thanks for these!

 

A difficult question; could you 'guess' the distance travelled from home to find virtual caches? I wonder if the high numbers are from international travellers.

[+Danie Viljoen]

I find it difficult to understand that large and virtual has more average finds than others when there is none and fee new ones of these sizes, so I find these graphs very interesting.

 

A difficult question; could you 'guess' the distance travelled from home to find virtual caches? I wonder if the high numbers are from international travellers.

I suspect Virtual caches are popular because of their rarity, and the fact that they are usually at or close to popular tourist attractions.

Large: From the numbers it is clear that people are not willing to go out of their way to find Regular caches, but they seem to be willing to do it for Large caches. I suspect it is a combination of location (a Large needs a safe place - typically in a reserve) and its contents.

 

About the travel distance to virtual caches: No, I have no way to calculate or even guess this. There is no easy way to determine a cacher's home location.

Edited January 14, 2015 by Danie Viljoen

[+Danie Viljoen]

Finds per cache type (South Africa, 2014):

 

(I excluded the single Mega; its number of finds, 175, is off the scale.)

The following graph shows the average number of finds for each cache type in South Africa during 2014 (active caches):

 

Number of new caches placed in South Africa during 2014, per cache type:

Edited January 14, 2015 by Danie Viljoen

[+Carbon Hunter]

EARTHCACHE STATS - see also the seperate thread

 

As of 31 Dec 2014

 

ECs by Prov

 

Eastern Cape 44

Free State 4

Gauteng 41

Kwazulu Natal 42

Limpopo 17

Mpumalanga 39

North West 7

Northern Cape 19

Western Cape 46

 

By year placed

 

2005 3

2007 2

2008 36

2009 50

2010 48

2011 13

2012 14

2013 28

2014 64

 

Top 10 EC COs (anyone with more than 1 hide) - South Africa ONLY

Rank Cache Owner Number EC placed

 

1 iPajero 43

2 Carbon Hunter 32

3 Bouts777 19

4 HeinG 13

5 Sterreman 8

5 RedGlobe 8

5 Hesamati 8

6 hennieventer 7

7 GPS Storm 6

7 TechnoNut 6

7 cincol ( 4 with Carbon Hunter) 6

8 ChrisDen 5

8 erenei 5

Edited January 16, 2015 by Carbon Hunter

[+Carbon Hunter]

For Greater Southern part of Africa - Earthcaches only

 

Looking at Southern Africa - we have the following stats:

 

Total Earthcaches active as of Year End 2014:

 

South Africa (259)

Namibia (19) - (6 which already have around 30 Favourite points or more!) [hennieventer has 1]

Tanzania (17) - (mostly on or around Kilimanjaro)

Kenya (9) [Carbon Hunter & Sawa Sawa 2 each]

Angola (8)

Zimbabwe (8) [TechnoNut & Carbon Hunter have 1 each]

Botswana (6) - [TechnoNut has 1]

Reunion (6)

Seychelles (5) [cincol has 1]

Lesotho (4) [Carbon Hunter has 1]

Swaziland (3) [Redglobe owns all 3]

Uganda (3) [Carbon Hunter owns all 3]

Mozambique (2) [bouts777 has 1]

Malawi (2)

Madagascar (2)

Mauritius (2)

Zambia (1)

Rwanda (1)

Nigeria (1) [Carbon Hunter has 1]

Congo (Brazza)(1)

Burundi (0)

Comoros (0)

Cameroon (0)

DR Congo (0)

 

 

So now the Top earthcache hiders for GREATER SOUTHERN AFRICA come out as:

 

iPajero (43)

Carbon Hunter (41)

Bouts777 (20)

HeinG (13)

RedGlobe (11)

Sterreman; Hesamati; TechnoNut; henniventer (8)

GPS Storm, cincol (7)

erenei, ChrisDen (5)

[+Danie Viljoen]

Oldest active cachers in Africa:

 

I only considered cachers who have logged a find on an African cache during the last year (since 18 Jan 2014):

   Cacher        First cache   Last cache  Years
1.  Jors	   2001-01-17	2014-12-30  13.9
2.  Peter Scholtz  2001-05-01	2014-12-16  13.6
3.  Dinosaur	   2001-06-04	2015-01-07  13.6
4.  warthog	   2001-08-19	2014-07-11  12.9
5.  Brick	   2001-10-06	2015-01-15  13.3
6.  GuyHarwood	   2001-11-25	2014-09-28  12.8
7.  Goofster	   2001-12-29	2014-03-16  12.2
8.  clifford	   2002-01-06	2014-11-02  12.8
9.  alice	   2002-02-24	2014-02-28  12.0
10. Lu-An	   2002-04-21	2014-04-26  12.0

[+Fier]

Oldest active cachers in Africa:

 

I only considered cachers who have logged a find on an African cache during the last year (since 18 Jan 2014):

   Cacher        First cache   Last cache  Years
1.  Jors	   2001-01-17	2014-12-30  13.9
2.  Peter Scholtz  2001-05-01	2014-12-16  13.6
3.  Dinosaur	   2001-06-04	2015-01-07  13.6
4.  warthog	   2001-08-19	2014-07-11  12.9
5.  Brick	   2001-10-06	2015-01-15  13.3
6.  GuyHarwood	   2001-11-25	2014-09-28  12.8
7.  Goofster	   2001-12-29	2014-03-16  12.2
8.  clifford	   2002-01-06	2014-11-02  12.8
9.  alice	   2002-02-24	2014-02-28  12.0
10. Lu-An	   2002-04-21	2014-04-26  12.0

 

Huh, yet another interesting calculation.

could you perhaps identify their 'first afican cache' to calculate the top ten?

[+Danie Viljoen]

Home locations:

 

I'll appreciate input on the following challenging problem:

 

Every once in a while somebody asks for statistics relating to cachers' home locations. Every time I answer that there is no reliable way to calculate this that I can think of. Maybe it is time to try to do something about this, because it could lead to useful results (e.g. is a particular place a viable location for a Mega Event?)

 

Let me start with some of the problems:

• Cachers move around. (Cachers like besem and oom Louwtjie found and placed many caches first in one city, and then moved across the country to another place, where they are still active.)
  
• Most cachers find a handful of caches and then lose interest. Should I even count them?
  
• Using the centroid of a cacher's finds will not necessarily work for very active cachers, especially if they live close to the coast. I have not done the calculation, but I expect that iPajero's centroid, for example, will be hundreds of kilometers inland from their home.
  
• Overseas tourists are a real problem. I can't think of a way to weed them out. Their effect will be to inflate the numbers of places like Cape Town and maybe Pretoria/Johannesburg. (I don't think their effect is negligible - just look at the list of most found caches - the top 10 are all in and around Cape Town, and I suspect tourists have a lot to do with this.)
  
• Using the centroid of a cacher's placed caches could help, but here the problems are that only a small minority of cachers actually place any caches, and once again it will not work well for cachers living along the coast. The way the calculation works will skew the results inland.
  

I was thinking something along the following lines:

• Only consider cachers that have been active during say the last year. That will eliminate the inactive cachers.
  
• For those that have placed more than a minimum number of caches, use the centroid of their placed caches, but ignore EarthCaches. (I believe placed caches will give a more reliable indication than found caches, because there is already a built-in maximum distance from home. To minimize the effect of moving homes, one should probably only consider the last year or so.
  
• For the rest, use the centroid of their finds during the last year.
  

My proposed algorithm still does not cater for tourists, and using centroids has the abovementioned bias for cachers living along the coast. Can anybody think of any improvements? Is their a better way than using centroids?

Edited January 22, 2015 by Danie Viljoen

[+Carbon Hunter]

What about an annual centroid - and only use those cachers with centroids in "SADC" - that should exclude tourists - and also expats like myself or cincol while living out the country = but include us now we are back.

 

Not sure if this is practical?

[+Danie Viljoen]

What about an annual centroid - and only use those cachers with centroids in "SADC" - that should exclude tourists - and also expats like myself or cincol while living out the country = but include us now we are back.

The problem is that the centroid is guaranteed to fall here, because I only collect data on African caches. The moment you move out of Africa, I don't see any of your logs until you get back. It is simply not practical to try to collect all the data - I can hardly keep up with Africa as it is, and the PQs simply do not support that much data.

 

This is exactly why tourists are such a problem - a German tourist finding 5 caches on Table Mountain looks to me exactly like any other person from Cape Town who has only found 5 caches and then lost interest. Maybe one should ignore cachers whose finds are all in one short burst and then nothing?

[+Carbon Hunter]

I thought of an annual centroid - i.e. a centroid based on the last 12 month finds. Then one excludes any centroids outside of SADC (say up to the equator).

 

so the German with 5 caches on Table Mountain is still likely to have his centroid in Europe (or at least north africa) - and even A gauteng cacher like Danie Viljoen who tours Europe and the US after winning the lotto should still have his centroid in Zambia for that year.

 

Don't even know if this is possible?

[+Danie Viljoen]

I thought of an annual centroid - i.e. a centroid based on the last 12 month finds. Then one excludes any centroids outside of SADC (say up to the equator).

 

so the German with 5 caches on Table Mountain is still likely to have his centroid in Europe (or at least north africa)

The German's real centroid for the year may very well be in Europe or North Africa, but because I can't practically collect his European find logs, I won't take them into account, and thus I would calculate his centroid to be on Table Mountain.

[+Carbon Hunter]

I thought of an annual centroid - i.e. a centroid based on the last 12 month finds. Then one excludes any centroids outside of SADC (say up to the equator).

 

so the German with 5 caches on Table Mountain is still likely to have his centroid in Europe (or at least north africa)

The German's real centroid for the year may very well be in Europe or North Africa, but because I can't practically collect his European find logs, I won't take them into account, and thus I would calculate his centroid to be on Table Mountain.

 

aaaahhhhhh

[+Danie Viljoen]

I would like to test and fine-tune some of the abovementioned ideas, but to do that I need a few real home locations. Would those of you who are willing please send me yours off-line? (I promise not to share it with anyone). I particularly need a few along the coast and in rural areas.

[+TechnoNut]

Would those of you who are willing please send me yours off-line?

 

Mine on the way to your email.

 

[+Carbon Hunter]

PM sent