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Carbon Hunter

Statistics - bend it anyway you like!

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Fastest 5000 finds:

Only 8 cachers have found 5000 or more caches in Africa:

1. iPajero	    834 days
2. GorNat	   1429 days
3. rodnjoan	   2004 days
4. The Huskies	   2080 days
5. TechnoNut	   2467 days
6. Louise_Gerhard  2676 days
7. Antron	   3187 days
8. cownchicken	   3471 days

The average and median fastest 5000 finds are both 6.2 years.

 

Fastest 6000 finds:

3 cachers have found 6000 or more caches in Africa:

1. iPajero	   1022 days
2. rodnjoan	   2784 days
3. The Huskies	   3930 days

The average fastest 6000 finds is 7.1 years

 

For the major milestones of 7000 finds and up, only iPajero managed to find that many African caches.

 

The following graph shows the find rate of the fastest cacher (iPajero) relative to the runners up:

Fastest%20finds.jpg

To clarify - this is not really the find rate, it is more a fastest rate per 1000 finds: I simply plotted the fastest time (in days) for every 1000 finds.

I find it remarkable that iPajero managed to keep up their find rate through so many years. Every about 8 months another 1000 African caches are found. (And the above does not even include their overseas finds!)

Edited by Danie Viljoen

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The slowest 3000 finds (Wildbirds) took 3405 days (9.3 years).

 

 

Watch out Wildbirds...... here I come..... one day .... perhaps........ maybe :surprise:

 

:laughing: :laughing:

+1

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3 Million caches!

 

A major milestone was reached when the 3 millionth (active) cache was published last night. The following graph shows the total number of active caches (worldwide) since 2008:

Active%20caches%20-%20world.jpg

 

And for South Africa:

Active%20caches%20-%20RSA.jpg

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South Africa vs. the world:

The following graph shows the percentage of all the active caches in the world that are South African:

RSA%20percentage%20of%20all%20active%20caches_1.jpg

To my surprise we appear to have been gaining on the rest of the world for the last 6 years.

The effect of the big (and necessary!) clean-up of dead caches since the second half of last year can clearly be seen.

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Number of caches archived over time:

Yesterday's posting made me wonder about the number of caches that have been archived, especially during the last year.

The following graph shows the archived numbers for South Africa in 6-month intervals:

RSA%20no%20of%20caches%20archived.jpg

Although it may feel as if an unusually high number of caches have been archived during the last few months, the increase (162, or 32%) is not that unusual. The biggest increase in recent times was during the 6 months ending March 2013, when 199 more caches were archived - an increase of 65% over the previous 6 months. I get the impression that the volunteers do not archive dead caches at a steady rate - it tends to build up to big archiving sprees.

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There's also a higher prevalence of event caches over the last couple of years which would contribute somewhat to the figures, number of events per year

 

2002 1

2003 0

2004 0

2005 9

2006 14

2007 27

2008 27

2009 25

2010 59

2011 95

2012 97

2013 138

2014 178

2015 171

2016 247

2017 70

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There's also a higher prevalence of event caches over the last couple of years which would contribute somewhat to the figures, number of events per year

True, I did not think of that. I'll rework the numbers to exclude events.

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Number of archived caches over time:

This is the same as before, but with events excluded (and the time interval changed to years i.s.o. 6-month intervals):

RSA%20no%20of%20archived%20caches%20per%20year.jpg

We are currently losing caches at a rate of 2.7 per day, (3.4 if we include events).

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New caches vs. archived caches:

The following graph shows the numbers of new and archived caches per year for South Africa:

RSA%20new%20and%20archived.jpg

Currently we gain about 2500 caches per year and lose about 1000 for a netto gain of about 1500 per year.

(All of these numbers exclude events of all types.)

 

The next graph shows the number of new caches divided by the number of archived caches, per year.

RSA%20new%20to%20archived_1.jpg

The number appears to be stable since about 2009

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Percentage active caches archived:

Lastly, the following graph shows the percentage of active South African caches that are archived each year:

RSA%20active%20percentage%20archived.jpg

(This excludes all events.)

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End of the road?

I've been monitoring the number of views on this thread for the past view months. Even with regular postings for the last two months, the numbers have been dwindling. To give you an example - yesterday's posting on favourite points has only been viewed by 18 people up to now. (The average is about 30 views per day.) Given the amount of time I normally spend on this, I can't help wondering if it is worth it to continue. Maybe it is time to finally let it die?

Danie, I don't visit the forum regularly but I just love all the interesting information that you post. Every few weeks I do have a look at the post.

 

Regards

JP

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Deleted - post was incorrect. I cannot even count bad_boy_animated.gif

Edited by ChrisDen

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Age distribution of archived caches:

The next few postings will be about cache longevity.

 

First, let's look at the age distribution of archived South African caches. (I excluded all types of events.)

RSA%20age%20distribution%20of%20archived%20caches.jpg

The average life expectancy of an archived South African cache is 6.6 years, and the median is 6.4 years.

 

The oldest archived cache is GC8FF8 - Paarl Rock Cache, which made it to 14.2 years.

Edited by Danie Viljoen

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Cache survival probability:

 

How long does a typical (non-event) South African cache last?

The following graph surprised me:

RSA%20cache%20survival%20probability.jpg

What this means is that the attrition rate is more or less constant for the first 11.5 years, at 2.8% per year, much lower than I expected.

If a cache can make it to 11.5 years, it tends to become immortal!

Up to now only 31% of all South African caches (excluding events) have been archived.

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Up to now only 31% of all South African caches (excluding events) have been archived.

 

I've got it a little higher at 34.5% (excludes Events), same same :anitongue:

 

When I looked at my own stats it was also interesting to see that of the caches I've found in SA, 47.5% have been archived (Excluding events)

Edited by GlobalRat

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Danie,

 

Out of interest I looked at the years a cache was placed and then determined the % of these that have been archived. I guess it's pretty much the same, just a different view, but not seeing as significant a flattening out, could just be smoothing.

 

Looking at 2002-2005 it does seem to buck the trend.

 

2013, and 2014 have a marked increase in archived percentages. Then it trends constantly back to 2006 with a massive correction in 2005, and then it follows much the same trend again.

 

Interesting

 

ZAarchive.jpg

Edited by GlobalRat

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A very interesting way to look at it! I think the reason you don't see the flattening here is because of differing numbers of caches per data point. (You counted the number of caches in a specific year, which for the early years are only a few. The effect of one or two more archived caches in 2001 would be much greater than say in 2016. I counted the number of caches of a specific age. For example, a ten year old cache in my graph could have been placed in any year from 2001 to 2007, depending on when it was archived).

 

I wonder about the anomaly from 2005 to 2006. I guess one will have to look at the specific caches to find the reason.

 

About the total percentage of archived caches - did you ignore CITO, L&F and MEGA events as well?

Edited by Danie Viljoen

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There is another way of exploring Placed and Archived caches.

 

It is surprising to see the archived percentage varying so much among physical cache types.

 

These are my stats (which I believe are good for total number of caches placed and archived in SA.

Cache Type Placed Archived %

Traditional 17871 6224 34.8%

Multicache 1075 492 45.8%

Unknown 2017 556 27.6%

Letterbox H 111 25 22.5%

Wherigo 44 2 4.5%

Virtual 14 7 50.0%

Earthcache 378 7 1.8%

Lab Cache 21 21 100.0% (there may be more due to the Groundspeak initiative to allow users to place a single personal Lab cache)

 

For Completeness, here are the event cache types.

 

Event 1166 1142

L&F 10 Year 4 4

CITO 154 146

Mega 3 3

 

All Types 22858 8629 37.8%

 

It appears that multicaches and traditionals are the ones that get archived most.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by TechnoNut

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Lab Cache 21 21 100.0% (there may be more due to the Groundspeak initiative to allow users to place a single personal Lab cache)

How do you get the Lab caches? I don't see an option in the PQs to get them.

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Lab Cache 21 21 100.0% (there may be more due to the Groundspeak initiative to allow users to place a single personal Lab cache)

How do you get the Lab caches? I don't see an option in the PQs to get them.

 

You need the GPX files for the lab caches (and then you need to dump them into GSAK) - these are available in a roundabout way (but only from the profile of someone who has logged the lab caches).

 

I can send you the "recipe" to get the gpx file (if you have logged them), or alternatively email you the gpx files from my records.

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About the total percentage of archived caches - did you ignore CITO, L&F and MEGA events as well?

 

Aaah, forgot to exclude those :ph34r:

 

A quick recalc, 34%

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I think after our consolidation we should have the following:

 

Type Number Arch Perc

Unknown Cache 2019 558 28%

Traditional 17879 6221 35%

Multicache 1074 490 46%

Virtual Cache 14 7 50%

Event Cache 1167 1144 98%

Earthcache 378 7 2%

Letterbox H 111 25 23%

CITO 154 146 95%

Wherigo Cache 44 2 5%

L&Foun 3 3 100%

MegaEvent 3 3 100%

Lab Caches 21 21 100%

TOTALS 22867 8627 38%

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Marion and Prince Edward Islands:

 

I only recently discovered that there are three caches on Marion Island (of which one is archived). The Prince Edward Islands (of which Marion is part), currently listed as part of Antarctica, is actually South African territory, and they fall under Cape Town, administratively. If one includes them, the centroid for Cape Town moves by 2.696km to S33 59.832 E18 31.487

Edited by Danie Viljoen

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A bit of an update to Danie’s previous post on cache sizes

 

Number of caches placed by size per year

 

cachesizenum.jpg

 

Number of caches placed by size per year as a % of total caches placed for that year

 

cachesizeperc.jpg

 

Excludes Events, CITO, Lab.

 

Not surprisingly Micro's and Small's still the most popular by far

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Not surprisingly Micro's and Small's still the most popular by far

I am surprised to see that Large is still holding its own - they certainly feel very scarce!

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Agreed they do seem scarce

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Agreed they do seem scarce

 

They seem to be trending up a bit. Table only shows active caches, a couple of old one's still in play, total of 179 currently active.

 

activelarge.jpg

 

Apart from smaller caches being easier to hide/maintain, there seems to be a trend globally of less interest in the goodies in a cache. Kids still love the goodies though, they find the log only caches boring.

Edited by GlobalRat

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It seems the provinces names are in the wrong order for their respective stats.

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Agreed they do seem scarce

 

They seem to be trending up a bit. Table only shows active caches, a couple of old one's still in play, total of 179 currently active.

 

activelarge.jpg

 

Apart from smaller caches being easier to hide/maintain, there seems to be a trend globally of less interest in the goodies in a cache. Kids still love the goodies though, they find the log only caches boring.

 

Wow only 7 in KZN ... no wonder they seem scarce

 

Will have to place a few more😊

 

Thanks for the info

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It seems the provinces names are in the wrong order for their respective stats.

 

Welcome to the forum!

 

My bad.. some gremlins crept in there. Knew there was a reason one should leave this to the Pro, aka Danie.

 

Runs away with tail between his legs :ph34r:

 

Here you go:-

 

activelarge2.jpg

Edited by GlobalRat

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End of the road?

I've been monitoring the number of views on this thread for the past view months. Even with regular postings for the last two months, the numbers have been dwindling. To give you an example - yesterday's posting on favourite points has only been viewed by 18 people up to now. (The average is about 30 views per day.) Given the amount of time I normally spend on this, I can't help wondering if it is worth it to continue. Maybe it is time to finally let it die?

Danie, I don't visit the forum regularly but I just love all the interesting information that you post. Every few weeks I do have a look at the post.

 

Regards

JP

 

Danie, I absolutely LOVE your stats!! I am guilty, because I hardly ever check them, but when I do, I can spend hours and hours scrolling through the results. I think it is just a case of people being busy and relying too much on social media to keep up to date with things. I'll ask Graham to put in an article about these stats in the next GoSA newsletter :)

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End of the road?

I've been monitoring the number of views on this thread for the past view months. Even with regular postings for the last two months, the numbers have been dwindling. To give you an example - yesterday's posting on favourite points has only been viewed by 18 people up to now. (The average is about 30 views per day.) Given the amount of time I normally spend on this, I can't help wondering if it is worth it to continue. Maybe it is time to finally let it die?

Danie, I don't visit the forum regularly but I just love all the interesting information that you post. Every few weeks I do have a look at the post.

 

Regards

JP

 

Danie, I absolutely LOVE your stats!! I am guilty, because I hardly ever check them, but when I do, I can spend hours and hours scrolling through the results. I think it is just a case of people being busy and relying too much on social media to keep up to date with things. I'll ask Graham to put in an article about these stats in the next GoSA newsletter :)

 

So I was corrected! Danie's Stats has already featured in the newsletter and will be a regular going forward..... sigh.... sorry I missed that issue!

 

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End of the road?

I've been monitoring the number of views on this thread for the past view months. Even with regular postings for the last two months, the numbers have been dwindling. To give you an example - yesterday's posting on favourite points has only been viewed by 18 people up to now. (The average is about 30 views per day.) Given the amount of time I normally spend on this, I can't help wondering if it is worth it to continue. Maybe it is time to finally let it die?

Danie, I don't visit the forum regularly but I just love all the interesting information that you post. Every few weeks I do have a look at the post.

 

Regards

JP

 

Danie, I absolutely LOVE your stats!! I am guilty, because I hardly ever check them, but when I do, I can spend hours and hours scrolling through the results. I think it is just a case of people being busy and relying too much on social media to keep up to date with things. I'll ask Graham to put in an article about these stats in the next GoSA newsletter :)

 

So I was corrected! Danie's Stats has already featured in the newsletter and will be a regular going forward..... sigh.... sorry I missed that issue!

 

 

Dont also forget that there may be many of us that read the daily digest emails, and don't log on to read them - those numbers would not show up as views. I am sure that aside from my self, there are many more that follow your stats this way, and find them rather enjoyable.

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Longevity of archived caches:

 

The following graph shows the average age (in days) of archived caches at the time of its last find:

Archived%20cache%20longevity%20per%20province.jpg

(The following cache types were excluded: Event, CITO, L&F, MEGA, Lab.)

 

I was surprised to see how well the Western Cape and Gauteng are doing - I expected the smaller provinces with their lower muggle densities to dominate here.

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SA Active caches by Difficulty / Terrain (by province).

 

Here are all active SA caches sorted by D/T and Province.

 

DT_SA_All.jpg

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Active caches by Type.

 

Active caches in South Africa, sorted by Province and Type. Event type caches are excluded.

 

Type.JPG

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Cache age per province:

 

The following graph shows the average age (in years) of active caches per province:

Active%20cache%20age%20per%20province.jpg

(All event types and lab caches are excluded.)

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Cache age per province:

 

The following graph shows the average age (in years) of active caches per province:

Active%20cache%20age%20per%20province.jpg

(All event types and lab caches are excluded.)

Looking at those stats makes me wonder if it is linked to number of finds on the caches

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Looking at those stats makes me wonder if it is linked to number of finds on the caches

Do you mean there may be a correlation between age and number of finds? I would be surprised if there is not - the older a cache is, the more time there has been for finds. I'll look into this next.

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Finds vs. cache age:

 

The following scatter graph plots the number of finds for every South African cache (excluding event types):

RSA%20Finds%20vs%20age.jpg

As can be seen from the graph there is indeed some correlation between the number of finds and the age of the cache, although it is quite weak.

I believe the number of finds is influenced more by other factors such as location.

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As can be seen from the graph there is indeed some correlation between the number of finds and the age of the cache, although it is quite weak.

I believe the number of finds is influenced more by other factors such as location.

 

Agree. Location and timing much greater influences than age. An easy grab along a high caching traffic route is going to have way more hits than a cache at the top of a mountain requiring a 2 day hike. Timing also plays a role, E.g. publishing a cache in time near a Mega Event is going to have a lot of hits upfront.

 

Caches that are part of some statistical series also tend to be quite popular over recent years, e.g. power trail series.

 

These are all things that will skew the stats

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How many cachers in South Africa?

 

I often get this question, and it is not easy to answer. Some of the complications are: Is a person who finds a single cache and then drops out really a cacher? How many of the cachers are active? What about foreign tourists - should we count them? This last question is especially problematic - there is no programmatic way I can think of to easily determine if a cacher is local or not.

 

The best I can do is to give the following set of answers:

  • 33458 different cachers have logged at least one cache in South Africa since the very beginning
  • 8838 cachers have logged at least one cache in South Africa during the past year
  • 1900 cachers have logged at least 12 caches in South Africa during the past year. (12 Finds in one year is my (almost arbitrary) cut-off point for active cachers, and should filter out casual short-term tourists.)

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FPs vs. Cache age:

 

We saw that there is a weak correlation between the number of finds on a cache and the age of the cache. But what about the number of favourite points? Do older caches have more FPs than younger ones?

RSA%20FPs%20vs%20age.jpg

As can be seen from the above scatter plot, the number of FPs at any age appear to be close to random - almost no correlation.

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FPs vs. Cache age:

 

We saw that there is a weak correlation between the number of finds on a cache and the age of the cache. But what about the number of favourite points? Do older caches have more FPs than younger ones?

 

FP is a relatively recent development so many older caches would not have benefited as most cachers have not retrospectively gone and favourited their old finds. I do my retrospective FP allocations whenever I find some spare time, but it's a very piecemeal effort. It's also limited to premium members.

 

So the scattered pattern doesn't surprise me.

 

Have you done a find rate vs age analysis anywhere?

Edited by GlobalRat

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FP is a relatively recent development so many older caches would not have benefited as most cachers have not retrospectively gone and favourited their old finds.

This is a valid point. Any idea when FPs were introduced?

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This is a valid point. Any idea when FPs were introduced?

 

Dec 2010

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Apart from "Have you done a find rate vs age analysis anywhere?"

 

What % of active caches have at least 1 FP, or possibly various ranges/distribution of # of FP's?

Edited by GlobalRat

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Danie,

 

Seeing that SA has a very rich geological "history" how do we compare to the rest of the world ito of Active Earthcaches as a % of Total Active caches in SA?

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