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Statistics - bend it anyway you like!


Carbon Hunter

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I see that the latest version of GSAK (ver. 7.6.2.45) has partial support for cache attributes. I am not sure where the data will come from yet... <snip>

 

For a short time, cache attributes were included in the PQ's, but then Groundspeak performed a rollback, and the info is no more. Perhaps it will return.

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The following statistics give the percentage of available caches found by the leading cachers for South Africa, for each province, as well as for the rest of Africa:

 

South Africa: available: 3701

iPajero 2253 60.9%

Tricky Vicky & Mickey 1263 34.1%

cache-fan 1102 29.8%

cownchicken 1094 29.6%

RedGlobe 920 24.9%

 

Eastern Cape: available: 448

iPajero 366 81.7%

iNokia 332 74.1%

cownchicken 191 42.6%

ravenmeistre 172 38.4%

amaSoekSoek 158 35.3%

 

For the Statiticians out there - when we saw these stats we took this as a challenge and decided to see whether we could achieve finding all the caches in our Province. This is yet another milestone for us as we have just done so! :) :) :santa:

 

Active Eastern Cape available: 449

Own caches in EC 72. Found active caches 377 = 100%

 

Come on EC cachers we now need some new caches! Our nearest cache to do is Ramsgate Beach at 318 km away and 545 km by road!

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Own caches in EC 72. Found active caches 377 = 100%

Unbelievable! I am sure that this has never been done before, except maybe at the very beginning when there were only a few caches. I can't even find all the caches in a 10km radius around my home!

 

So which province is next? KZN? :)

 

Well done - an EXCELLENT achievement.

 

I know cincol does this regularly in Qatar - but the "problem" is that people keep hiding new caches.

 

A great problem to have - but it does mean that getting his numbers up takes an absolute age - or international travel :)

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Own caches in EC 72. Found active caches 377 = 100%

Unbelievable! I am sure that this has never been done before, except maybe at the very beginning when there were only a few caches. I can't even find all the caches in a 10km radius around my home!

 

So which province is next? KZN? :)

 

Well done - an EXCELLENT achievement.

 

I know cincol does this regularly in Qatar - but the "problem" is that people keep hiding new caches.

 

A great problem to have - but it does mean that getting his numbers up takes an absolute age - or international travel :)

Statistics will be statistics:

If you are a traveller then you can pick up some crazy statistics:

In the Congo there are only three caches, none of them ever found, so you could grab 100% of the caches in the country, 100% of the FTF in the country and be the only cacher to have found caches in the entire country.

 

Or alternatively do the same in Chad by doing only one cache and picking up the same stats.

 

Must be many others out there similar to this.

 

There is another thread running <here> about Caches not yet found and FTF from date of placement

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Well that is true - I have the only 2 caches in Rwanda! One is now archived - but the other is still going strong.

 

But in Qatar - this was the case - but is certainly not anymore with well over 180 caches (186 currently - and growing constantly).

 

In iPajero's case - he has 377 caches found in the Eastern cape - also a remarkable stat. No small feat in anyone's book.

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I compared log dates with find dates and found a number of interesting things:

 

The latest log of all of the 154 000 logs is one by Subraid. He logged a find on 20 Aug 07 for a cache found on 3 Dec 03, a full 1365 days (3 years and 9 months) later!

There is also one by Stasher, logged on 4 Jan 08 for a find on 12 Apr 04 (1362 days later).

 

We even have a few prophets among us, who can predict when in the future they will find specific caches! (I didn't know the system even allowed this.) The best of these is landy 2001 who logged a find for 20 Sep 2008 on 23 Sep 2007 (almost exactly a year early).

Nkwe logged a find for 26 Oct 07 on 3 Jan 07 (296 days early).

 

On average, 74% of finds are logged within 2 days

81% within 3 days

85% within 4 days

90% within a week

94% within 2 weeks

97.6% within a month

This means that on average more than 2% of all finds are logged more than a month later!

 

(I only analysed finds, DNFs and Attended logs.)

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I sometimes wonder if there are certain cachers that leave a trail of muggled caches behind them, be it just bad luck or carelessness. Is there any way of working out who has the most mugglings directly after their last visit to a cache?

Hmm this can be worked out, but would we want to publish that Gerhard is the one someone?

It could be truly bad luck on his / her side.... If my name were at the top, I would not like it to be published.

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I sometimes wonder if there are certain cachers that leave a trail of muggled caches behind them, be it just bad luck or carelessness. Is there any way of working out who has the most mugglings directly after their last visit to a cache?

Hmm this can be worked out, but would we want to publish that Gerhard is the one someone?

It could be truly bad luck on his / her side.... If my name were at the top, I would not like it to be published.

I tend to agree with DamhuisClan - what good will this do? I am sure Fish Eagle has a good idea who the culprits are (if any) and will deal with them if it really becomes a problem! :angry:

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Most isolated cache per province:

I do not guarantee that the following is correct - it changes all the time as caches are archived and new ones are published:

Northern Cape: 138.36km Springbokpan

Western Cape: 104.9km The Pointer

Free State: 53.28km Landmeter Station

Eastern Cape: 52.76km Orange-Fish River Tunnel outlet

North West: 46.77km The Eye

Limpopo: 44.12km The Big Rock

Mpumalanga: 36.8km Villiers

KZN: 29.95km Rocky Fo-by-Fo

Gauteng: 18.74km Puzzled by Nature

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The longest logs:

There are 3 logs that stand out from the rest:

The longest, if one counts characters, is rodnjoan's log on GC1R7N4. It is 3023 characters (553 words).

The log with the most words is the pooks' log on GCY3RE. It is 578 words (2911 characters).

Between the two we have deon_engel's log on GC1492E. It is 558 words (2959 characters).

 

The average length of all of the 152 000+ logs is 23 words (123 characters).

 

I just noticed that my last log jumped the line on these ones...

734 words... GCYJJQ

Does this mean that I talk too much nonsense?

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You guys have managed to publish a graph of when caches are found in South Africa (by date/month).

 

Is there any way to do this but only for visiting cachers (or even see how many non-SA cachers come in to SA on an annual basis)?

 

Even just an indication of magnitude (20 - 50 - 100 - more) would be interesting to see.

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You guys have managed to publish a graph of when caches are found in South Africa (by date/month).

 

Is there any way to do this but only for visiting cachers (or even see how many non-SA cachers come in to SA on an annual basis)?

 

Even just an indication of magnitude (20 - 50 - 100 - more) would be interesting to see.

 

There is no definite way to see if a caches is local or not. The only way would maybe look at the cachers who have not hidden any.

I was thinking of maybe asking Crystalfairy to give us an export of the cachers per province which we could then import into our SQLite databases, but we would need to re-import each time we update our databases from GSAK.

Maybe I will look at this at some later date.

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You guys have managed to publish a graph of when caches are found in South Africa (by date/month).

 

Is there any way to do this but only for visiting cachers (or even see how many non-SA cachers come in to SA on an annual basis)?

 

Even just an indication of magnitude (20 - 50 - 100 - more) would be interesting to see.

I would love to be able to do this, but as Anton has said, the origin of the cachers is unknown. The only place where one can see where a particular cacher is from is on his GC profile, but even this information is optional - many cachers don't list this. One can maybe look where these mysterious cachers have logged most of their finds, especially their first ones, but to do this programmatically will be quite a challenge!

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You guys have managed to publish a graph of when caches are found in South Africa (by date/month).

 

Is there any way to do this but only for visiting cachers (or even see how many non-SA cachers come in to SA on an annual basis)?

 

Even just an indication of magnitude (20 - 50 - 100 - more) would be interesting to see.

I would love to be able to do this, but as Anton has said, the origin of the cachers is unknown. The only place where one can see where a particular cacher is from is on his GC profile, but even this information is optional - many cachers don't list this. One can maybe look where these mysterious cachers have logged most of their finds, especially their first ones, but to do this programmatically will be quite a challenge!

 

I always look at where he has HIDDEN his caches - but then not everyone has hidden caches though. :)

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Anton,

Ipajero did 331 caches in one month, average of 11 per day. To make it scarier is that they have done 100 caches in 5 days and 117 caches in one week. I can only get to 117 in two months. This includes some real scary ones and quite tough.

 

Why my name on the list? I am sure Besem and or GreenJam must be up there as well with the rest? Gerhard

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A fun one for the cache statisticians

 

How many cachers cached on Christmas Day and how many caches were found? The same would be cool for Boxing Day and New Years Day when it comes around. I cached today and am caching tomorrow too!

 

Thanks

 

PS I don;t expect the reply for this till much later as I am sure there are travelling cachers who might log later!

 

Thanks

 

Trev

Edited by trevorh7000
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We may have had the answer to this before, but who are the "oldest" active cachers in sA - i.e. those that have been caching for the longest time and are still active?

 

I guess Jors must be the obvious one?

The ten oldest active cachers are:

Cacher First cache

1. Jors: 2001-01-17

2. Peter Scholtz: 2001-05-01

3. Brick: 2001-10-06

4. cmerry: 2001-05-22

5. Goofster: 2001-12-29

6. GuyHarwood: 2001-11-25

7. warthog: 2001-08-19

8. farmboy: 2001-04-22

9. hosta: 2002-02-25

10. clifford: 2002-01-06

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We may have had the answer to this before, but who are the "oldest" active cachers in sA - i.e. those that have been caching for the longest time and are still active?

 

I guess Jors must be the obvious one?

The ten oldest active cachers are:

Cacher First cache

1. Jors: 2001-01-17

2. Peter Scholtz: 2001-05-01

3. Brick: 2001-10-06

4. cmerry: 2001-05-22

5. Goofster: 2001-12-29

6. GuyHarwood: 2001-11-25

7. warthog: 2001-08-19

8. farmboy: 2001-04-22

9. hosta: 2002-02-25

10. clifford: 2002-01-06

 

Danie,

 

Who is regarded as being "active"?

 

Prof Charles Merry (cmerry) placed the second cache in SA on 2001-01-18.

Although it was placed under a different user name, it's still the same cacher.

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Who is regarded as being "active"?

 

Prof Charles Merry (cmerry) placed the second cache in SA on 2001-01-18.

Although it was placed under a different user name, it's still the same cacher.

You are right. I discovered he even had a third name: npl. For this list I regard active as any person who found anything during 2009, and I used their first find dates. I did not however realize that some of them placed caches before finding their first caches. The corrected list looks like this:

1. Jors: 17-Jan-01

2. cmerry: 18-Jan-01

3. hosta :02-Apr-01

4. Peter Scholtz: 16-Apr-01

5. farmboy: 22-Apr-01

6. Brick: 30-Jun-01

7. Raymond E: 21-Jul-01

8. Hermanm: 29-Jul-01

9. warthog: 19-Aug-01

10. Tim&Brig: 19-Aug-01

Edited by Danie Viljoen
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You are right. I discovered he even had a third name: npl. For this list I regard active as any person who found anything during 2009,

 

Wow - that is excellent.

 

So many SA cachers heading for the 9 yaer mark.

 

congrats guys.

 

I reckon we need to start thinking about the 10th Anniv of SA caching - only 12 months away.

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How many cachers cached on Christmas Day and how many caches were found? The same would be cool for Boxing Day and New Years Day when it comes around.

16 Dec: 83 cachers found 248 caches

25 Dec: 52 cachers found 129 caches

26 Dec: 82 cachers found 284 caches

1 Jan: 76 cachers found 141 caches. (I suspect there are still quite a number of outstanding logs for 1 Jan.)

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In 2009 a total of 1180 new caches have been published in South Africa. The numbers and percentages of the total for each province is:

W.C.: 297 25.2%

Gauteng: 265 22.5%

KZN: 250 21.2%

Mpumalanga: 130 11.0%

E.C.: 87 7.4%

F.S.: 62 5.3%

Limpopo 44 3.7%

N.W.: 28 2.4%

N.C.: 17 1.4%

 

Unfortunately I do not have the number of caches archived since the beginning of 2009, but if I extrapolate from what I have, the total for South Africa must be about 608, which gives a netto increase of about 572 caches for the year.

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The most active cachers in South Africa in 2009 were:

1. iPajero: 1170

2. Danie Viljoen: 587

3. gerhardoosMPsa: 560

4. Happy Hunters SA: 401

5. Henzz: 382

6. Antron: 375

7. DRDM & Raider: 364

8. cownchicken: 337

9. Tricky Vicky & Mickey: 333

10. cache-fan: 317

 

(If one compares these numbers with my previous posting, only the first two managed to stay ahead of the increase.)

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During 2009 a total of 52586 logs were written for South African caches, of which 40939 were finds (or attended events). This is an increase of 16% and 19.8% respectively over the previous year.

 

During 2009 a total of 2117 cachers wrote logs, and 1961 found something. (This is an increase of 30.9% and 32% over the previous year.)

 

Since the very beginning there have been 4273 cachers active in South Africa, and 3959 have found something. They have written a total of 161548 logs, and have found 122276 caches. This implies an average of 30.7 logs/cache and 23.2 finds/cache.

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The most popular events for 2009 were:

1. GC1WFP6 - Spring Bash 2009: 29 attended

2. GC1QXCC - The BIG Kick-Off for The 2009 Great SA TB Race: 26 attended

3. GC1N8QC - Braai at Maroela: 25 attended

4. GC206BT - KZN Sandpit Christmas Event: 24 attended

5. GC20RD8 - Fine Wine 3 - A Christmas Cache: 24 attended

 

The most popular South African events ever:

1. GC16R15 - The Neighbour of Leap Year's Day Bash: 40 attended

2. GC139DX - THE sp"RING" bash: 33 attended

3. GC191KV - Keepers of the Cache (2008 Geocaching Event): 33 attended

4. GC1WFP6 - Spring Bash 2009: 29 attended

5. GC1QXCC - The BIG Kick-Off for The 2009 Great SA TB Race: 26 attended

Edited by Danie Viljoen
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Is there any way you can break down, maybe by Province, the different percentages of cache sizes?

So Western Cape might have : 30% micro, 40% small, 20% regular, 10% large etc. and even better if you could compare those percentages to those of a few years ago to see how the cache sizes have changed.

 

It seems like a progression/regression towards smaller and micro caches is going on. For me it is always rather sad to see a micro where a larger cache could have been hidden, but I know this is an ongoing debate and comes down to preferance of the cache owner.

 

Thanks

 

Mike

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The most popular South African caches for 2009 were:

1. GC114RH - Cape Town TB Hotel: 97 finds

2. GCMYYZ - Table Top Trove: 89 finds

3. GCWK3K - TF16 180° Sea: 75 finds

4. GC9CC4 - Signal Hill: 74 finds

5. GC1KC79 - Historic Irene - Post Office: 68 finds

6. GC16GBB - Ireland in South Africa: 65 finds

7. GC1N9AM - Table Mountain: 65 finds

8. GC1KR3C - Zoom-By-Kie: 63 finds

9. GC1MY75 - Jannie's Veggie Patch :62 finds

10. GC11M7Q - Remarkable Trees: Trees To Treasure: 61 finds

 

(I must say, there is one that surprised me!)

 

The most popular South African caches of all time are:

1. GCMYYZ - Table Top Trove: 295 finds

2. GC9CC4 - Signal Hill: 242 finds

3. GC114RH - Cape Town TB Hotel: 226 finds

4. GC3055 - Smuts House, Irene: 216 finds

5. GC43FA - Historical Series – Harbour entrance: 209 finds

6. GCWK3K - TF16 180° Sea: 208 finds

7. GC77E - Cape Agulhas: 166 finds

8. GCAF35 - Sea Point Historical 1: 153 finds

9. GCGA0Z - Kloofnek Historical 12P: 151 finds

10. GC11M7Q - Remarkable Trees: Trees To Treasure: 144 finds

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Is there any way you can break down, maybe by Province, the different percentages of cache sizes?

So Western Cape might have : 30% micro, 40% small, 20% regular, 10% large etc. and even better if you could compare those percentages to those of a few years ago to see how the cache sizes have changed.

All active South African caches hidden before 1 Jan 09: 2718

Large: 36: 1.3%

Regular: 804: 29.6%

Small: 1043: 38.4%

Micro: 712: 26.2%

Other: 123: 4.5%

 

All active South African caches hidden after 1 Jan 09: 1121

Large: 2: 0.2%

Regular: 162: 14.5%

Small: 507: 45.2%

Micro: 332: 29.6%

Other: 118: 10.5%

 

It appears as if your are right - the trend is definitely towards smaller caches. The increase of regular caches is half what it used to be, while the increase of small caches is significantly up.

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The persons who planted the most caches during 2009 are:

1. SawaSawa: 48 caches

2. Fish Eagle: 40 caches

3. MnCo: 33 caches

4. Cism: 31 caches

Three Western Cape Cachers have placed over 100 caches in a year! What we do down here to keep CnC and TV&M happy! :)

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The persons who planted the most caches during 2009 are:

1. SawaSawa: 48 caches

2. Fish Eagle: 40 caches

3. MnCo: 33 caches

4. Cism: 31 caches

Three Western Cape Cachers have placed over 100 caches in a year! What we do down here to keep CnC and TV&M happy! :P

 

Thank you so much!! You can give us a bit of a break if you like :) - we really won't mind!

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Danie thanks for the stats – it is good to see that caching is alive. I love the upward trend during the year with only a dip during the winter. December as expected was quite busy. Your stats also prove that GSAk is 100% correct. The highest cache density is occurring in the Western Cape and they top the 5 best locations for caching. Also good to see that FE is busy during the year – total of 40 caches is good.

 

It will be interesting to see what the effect of 2010 soccer will have on these stats. I wanted to lift a cache near the stadium in Durban but it was impossible to do with so many muggles. While I was there I had a smile on my face. This cache owner will have to camp near the cache. That little log could be finished in the first couple of hours. If 70 000 people arrive with only 0.2% of them cachers then about 140 people will queue to sign the log. Maybe he must pitch a little hawker stand. :) Gerhard

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