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Statistics - bend it anyway you like!


Carbon Hunter

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Some more stats (2 of 6):

 

Excludes Events and only Find Logs.

Find Logs by Month (Excludes 2009)

Jan 6140

Feb 4452

Mar 6844

Apr 6067

May 6211

Jun 5977

Jul 6729

Aug 6962

Sep 7946

Oct 6865

Nov 6593

Dec 9263

 

eh, why the dip in February caching? Anyone have any ideas ;)

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Some more stats (2 of 6):

 

Excludes Events and only Find Logs.

Find Logs by Month (Excludes 2009)

Jan 6140

Feb 4452

Mar 6844

Apr 6067

May 6211

Jun 5977

Jul 6729

Aug 6962

Sep 7946

Oct 6865

Nov 6593

Dec 9263

 

eh, why the dip in February caching? Anyone have any ideas :rolleyes:

 

Would guess it is pretty logic. Everyone goes away on holiday and there is a mad caching frenzy through December as there all the new caches placed in the holiday destinations. January would be the return to the home provinces to grab a few of the new holiday caches left by holiday makers during December. February I thing everyone has to catch up on work and home life. Makes sense!

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I have updated my pocket queries to get closer to 500 caches per pocket query.

For those who might be interested here they are:

ZA - All Caches 1 - 01 Jan 2000 to 26 Feb 2006 (497 Caches)

ZA - All Caches 2 - 26 Feb 2006 to 03 Nov 2006 (499 Caches)

ZA - All Caches 3 - 26 Nov 2006 to 01 Aug 2007 (497 Caches)

ZA - All Caches 4 - 01 Aug 2007 to 04 Jan 2008 (498 Caches)

ZA - All Caches 5 - 04 Jan 2008 to 07 Jun 2008 (497 Caches)

ZA - All Caches 6 - 07 Jun 2008 to 03 Dec 2008 (499 Caches)

ZA - All Caches 7 - 03 Dec 2008 to 01 Aug 2009 (315 Caches)

Edited by DamhuisClan
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Corrected dates:

ZA - All Caches 1 - 01 Jan 2000 to 26 Feb 2006 (497 Caches)

ZA - All Caches 2 - 26 Feb 2006 to 03 Nov 2006 (499 Caches)

ZA - All Caches 3 - 03 Nov 2006 to 12 Jul 2007 (497 Caches)

ZA - All Caches 4 - 12 Jul 2007 to 28 Dec 2007 (499 Caches)

ZA - All Caches 5 - 28 Dec 2007 to 31 May 2008 (493 Caches)

ZA - All Caches 6 - 01 Jun 2008 to 24 Nov 2008 (499 Caches)

ZA - All Caches 7 - 24 Nov 2008 to 01 Jun 2009 (315 Caches)

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Here is a challenge...which I don't for one minute expect to be met....

How about a South African version of this?

:laughing:

I have downloaded the program, but can not find out what format the data must be in. Does anyone maybe know?

 

I have just emailed Bill, and he responded on how the file format should be, and here are the results for cache finds per cache. Archived and Active.

0d886bff-1a42-47a8-a6d6-4f9b1bd39f13.jpg

 

Bill, Thanks for the assistance!

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Here is a challenge...which I don't for one minute expect to be met....

How about a South African version of this?

 

:laughing:

 

Has the challenge been met?

 

Below is a map purely based on cache density. I was amazed at how well it represents the contours of ZA at the coastal regions, and around Swaziland. Highest densities are around the major centres except for Bloemfontein.

 

Note: Cache density works on a 10 km block (NOT radius) around each cache, as this simplified the SQL calculation significantly. Thus 5km Up and down, and 5 km Left and right of the cache, forming a square around the point. In the end I think it will more or less work out the same as to using a circle.

 

30fb33e2-997c-475f-b871-1fc945615cde.jpg

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I am starting to like this plotting program.

If there are other who are interested in using it, or other stats that need to be generated, I will gladly add them here, for those who want.

 

The program has 3 colours. Blue, Green and Red (Low / Middle / High ) values.

Since the average finds per cache is 20, I think that should be the mid point. So below is the updated South African map of cache finds. Bloemfontein is starting to shine through. And part of the KNP starting to show.

Cape Town is a hive of activity.

d7605cd3-8b85-4a8d-89d6-0d1afcae0aa5.jpg

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OK - I have a new query

 

How about looking at stats on SA caches.

 

Will all SA caches allow a cahcer to get a full house of difficuly and terrain ratings?

 

And any SA cacher close to this feat yet?

 

To explain - that is

1/1

1.5/1

2/1

2.5/1.....

......

.....

1/3.5

1.5/3.5...

......

4/5

4.5/5

5/5

 

I hope you understand?

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How many 5/5s?

 

Of those do you think the 5 difficulty to find are overrated. To have 5/5 it should be impossible terrain AND make you search like hell at GZ.

 

(Kind of poses a question regarding difficulty rating of puzzle caches. What rating would you give for an impossible puzzle, solved by few, really difficult but an easy physical find once you crack the riddle?)

Edited by CapeDoc
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How many 5/5s?

 

Of those do you think the 5 difficulty to find are overrated. To have 5/5 it should be impossible terrain AND make you search like hell at GZ.

 

(Kind of poses a question regarding difficulty rating of puzzle caches. What rating would you give for an impossible puzzle, solved by few, really difficult but an easy physical find once you crack the riddle?)

 

I found a nice website that helps in determining ratings. I feel some ratings could be relooked at.

 

http://www.techblazer.com/geocache-rating-calculator.php

 

Also - there is a 5/5 puzzle cache in Hout Bay - but this is just 1 (unpublished) leg of an international cache. Another one in Harties area that I know of.

 

Perhaps a few more that I don't? They do not show up as local caches.

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Here is something I have been pondering for some time:

What is the average lifespan and hit rate of a cache in South Africa compared to other parts of the world.

For starters, even tackle it per province: Statistically, where is a newly planted cache likely to last the longest and get the most hits?

 

Although it is not easily quantifyable it would be interesting to know why caches are archived: Container failure / muggled / poor placement - gets washed away etc / hider lost interest and not wanting to do maintenance......

 

Just thinking out aloud.

BruceTP

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There are 6 active 5/5 caches in South Africa, of which 4 are in the Western Cape and the other 2 in Mpumalanga. They have been found 17 times in total. Statistically the number of 6 5/5's appears to be way too high, but since I am not one of the 17 finders I can not really comment.

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I'm think I'm getting a whiff of what's underlying this topic - a difficulty/terrain challenge cache where one has to find all 81 D/T combination to qualify to hunt the cache.

 

Under the new ALR (additional logging requirement) guideline, challenge caches are OK provided that they involve a geocaching-related challenge to be performed to qualify for hunting the cache. The key considerations to make such a cache publishable are that the challenge has to be achieved before hunting the cache, not done at the time, or afterwards (which are outlawed ALRs). The challenge must be geocaching related, and the cache owner must prove that the challenge is achievable, or that they can fulfil the requirements themself. See the guideline which says.....

Challenge caches incorporate special logging requirements and are listed as Mystery/Puzzle caches. Typically they require the seeker to have previously met a reasonable geocaching-related qualification (Waymarking and Wherigo qualify too, of course) such as first finding a cache in every county in your state. If you are thinking of creating such a cache, please include a note to the reviewer demonstrating either that you have met the challenge yourself, or that a substantial number of other geocachers would be able to do so.
There are some issues with D/T challenge caches, the main one being that difficulty and terrain ratings aren't cast in stone - the cache owner can change them anytime if they reconsider their ratings, and they can be jippo'd too if you've got the right mates. :D So, you might be almost there, and find to your dismay that the 5/5 cache which you bagged a while ago is now a 4/3. :D

 

But, in principle, a South African D/T would be an interesting challenge, which right now would be unachievable and therefore unpublishable, but as soon as it's possible, it would be OK, and a very sought after achievement. As time goes by, and there are more and more caches, it will get easier, but the first few to log it will have the pleasure of knowing that they achieved something very special.

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How many 5/5s?

 

Of those do you think the 5 difficulty to find are overrated. To have 5/5 it should be impossible terrain AND make you search like hell at GZ.

 

(Kind of poses a question regarding difficulty rating of puzzle caches. What rating would you give for an impossible puzzle, solved by few, really difficult but an easy physical find once you crack the riddle?)

 

I found a nice website that helps in determining ratings. I feel some ratings could be relooked at.

 

http://www.techblazer.com/geocache-rating-calculator.php

 

Also - there is a 5/5 puzzle cache in Hout Bay - but this is just 1 (unpublished) leg of an international cache. Another one in Harties area that I know of.

 

Perhaps a few more that I don't? They do not show up as local caches.

I tried the tool and it gave a rating of 2 for a very hand puzzle but easy container to find. Sound right to you?

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How about some CITO stats for SA:

Total for SA CITO’s in the history and where?

Cachers attendance numbers?

 

There were six:

  • International CITO day - Western Cape: 2004-04-02: Cape Town: 21 attended
  • Big Bay Beachcomb: 2007-04-21: Bloubergstrand: 22 attended
  • Scratch Patch Cache: 2007-05-12: Roodepoort: 12 attended
  • Pringle Bay CITO: 2008-04-20: Pringle Bay: 10 attended
  • Field of Dreams: 2008-07-05: Durban: 12 attended
  • The Reeds Wetland CITO event: 2009-05-02: Centurion: 11 attended

Edited by Danie Viljoen
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While the full matrix of D/T combinations are not available or achievable (yet), a subset may well be.

Who has found a complete line in the D/T matrix, e.g. all of 1/1, 1/2, 1/3, 1/4 & 1/5, including half-stars?

Or 5/1, 4/2, 3/3, 2/4 & 1/5 either horizontal, vertical or diagonal?

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No…..we disagree with that tool for giving a 2 for difficulty on a very hard puzzle….just think about Fiddle sticks….(No Rhino you must keep the 3.5 Rating)

 

I agree with RedGlobe - if a puzzle's involved, I think the difficulty rating should indicate how hard the puzzle is (assuming it's harder to solve the puzzle than to find the cache), but we all know that is a very subjective beast, and very dependent on other puzzle caches in the area: the 4-star puzzle I solved in the Pretoria area was a cakewalk compared to some 2-star puzzles over here in the notorious Delft-Den Haag-Leiden triangle here in the Netherlands!

 

I guess I like the difficulty rating to indicate how much time I will spend on the cache, whether it is solving the puzzle or physically looking for it.

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While the full matrix of D/T combinations are not available or achievable (yet), a subset may well be.

Who has found a complete line in the D/T matrix, e.g. all of 1/1, 1/2, 1/3, 1/4 & 1/5, including half-stars?

Or 5/1, 4/2, 3/3, 2/4 & 1/5 either horizontal, vertical or diagonal?

Quite right - if a substantial number of geocachers could meet the challenge, it would be viable.
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I just completed a similar PUZZLE CACHE in Germany called Spell Schallodenbach (http://www.geocaching.com/seek/cache_details.aspx?guid=ac673adb-bf9d-4e05-92b8-ee5d19157b23) whereby you had to include the fact that you had found caches that started with the first letter of the town "Schallodenbach" - AND were of at least 4 of the types of caches (multi/traditional/event etc.).

 

After all that prep - I must say - the actual cahce hunt and container were a bit of an anticlimax - I hope if any SA cacher does this - they will be a little more adventurous and innovative in the hide.

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No…..we disagree with that tool for giving a 2 for difficulty on a very hard puzzle….just think about Fiddle sticks….(No Rhino you must keep the 3.5 Rating)

 

I agree with RedGlobe - if a puzzle's involved, I think the difficulty rating should indicate how hard the puzzle is (assuming it's harder to solve the puzzle than to find the cache), but we all know that is a very subjective beast, and very dependent on other puzzle caches in the area: the 4-star puzzle I solved in the Pretoria area was a cakewalk compared to some 2-star puzzles over here in the notorious Delft-Den Haag-Leiden triangle here in the Netherlands!

 

I guess I like the difficulty rating to indicate how much time I will spend on the cache, whether it is solving the puzzle or physically looking for it.

 

There have been big debates over on the main forums about D/T 5/5 caches. I have not checked on this and am writing off the top of my head but one of the debated issues is that according to the guidelines "if special equipment is required" that makes it a D=5, so if you need a boat (however easy it might be), that will be a D=5. That to me is all part of T. Few caches are really 5/5 - impossible (well difficult) to solve and impossible (difficult) to get to. A lot of leeway is left to the CO's discretion and choice, and that is a good thing, else there would be no 5/5 caches for folks to do.

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Who has found a complete line in the D/T matrix?

I have only filled up to 2 range.

I am missing 1 in 2.5 range, and 1 in the 3 range.

 

With the Statsgen 3.6Beta there is a Finds by Date, and a Finds by Placed Month

Finds by Date:

Nothing filled, but December is the closest to being filled. The rest of the dates look quite random.

 

Finds by Placed Month:

I have filled 2006,2007,2008, and 2009 (to date)

2005 requires another 3 month, and 2004 requires 11.

I haven't yet found any placed in 2000.

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No…..we disagree with that tool for giving a 2 for difficulty on a very hard puzzle….just think about Fiddle sticks….(No Rhino you must keep the 3.5 Rating)

 

I agree with RedGlobe - if a puzzle's involved, I think the difficulty rating should indicate how hard the puzzle is (assuming it's harder to solve the puzzle than to find the cache), but we all know that is a very subjective beast, and very dependent on other puzzle caches in the area: the 4-star puzzle I solved in the Pretoria area was a cakewalk compared to some 2-star puzzles over here in the notorious Delft-Den Haag-Leiden triangle here in the Netherlands!

 

I guess I like the difficulty rating to indicate how much time I will spend on the cache, whether it is solving the puzzle or physically looking for it.

 

There have been big debates over on the main forums about D/T 5/5 caches. I have not checked on this and am writing off the top of my head but one of the debated issues is that according to the guidelines "if special equipment is required" that makes it a D=5, so if you need a boat (however easy it might be), that will be a D=5. That to me is all part of T. Few caches are really 5/5 - impossible (well difficult) to solve and impossible (difficult) to get to. A lot of leeway is left to the CO's discretion and choice, and that is a good thing, else there would be no 5/5 caches for folks to do.

For info - some comments about 5/5 ratings

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There are 6 active 5/5 caches in South Africa, of which 4 are in the Western Cape and the other 2 in Mpumalanga. They have been found 17 times in total. Statistically the number of 6 5/5's appears to be way too high, but since I am not one of the 17 finders I can not really comment.

 

A lot of cachers don't fully understand the rankings, and many of the 5/5 caches should be a 5/1, but the hiders just think because its an ardous hike and way out to get to cache site it should be a 5/5. I would llike sugggest that there arent any true 5/5 caches in South Africa.

Although I myself have hidden a 4.5/4.5 cache, where perhaps the difficulty should have been less.

For you folks who have done Paths of the Dead, how would you have rated it?

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I am reading this thread with interest. I recently published a puzzle cache - GC1PKBF - as a 5/2.5 and this has been verified by the cachers that have found it. Initially I personally felt that the 5 rating might have been too high. Although the puzzle(s) involved in the cache are not that difficult in themselves as they are solvable "on the go", certain clues have to be collected aound the country that requires vast distances to be covered at relatively high expense [depeding on how one travels]. Once again, a great deal of subjectivity comes into it and there will never be an exact science as to how to rate a cache.

 

On the subject of "specialized equipment". Here in the Middle East a vast majority of caches require the use of a 4X4. Does this mean that these caches should carry a 5 rating? Not in my eyes as the majority of cachers here all own 4X4's. That then does not mean special equipment here, but in SA or Europe perhaps it might. All depends on what the local standards are I would think.

 

I look forward to more debate around this.

 

Greetings from 44'C in the desert today! :P

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I am reading this thread with interest. I recently published a puzzle cache - GC1PKBF - as a 5/2.5 and this has been verified by the cachers that have found it. Initially I personally felt that the 5 rating might have been too high. Although the puzzle(s) involved in the cache are not that difficult in themselves as they are solvable "on the go", certain clues have to be collected aound the country that requires vast distances to be covered at relatively high expense [depeding on how one travels]. Once again, a great deal of subjectivity comes into it and there will never be an exact science as to how to rate a cache.

 

On the subject of "specialized equipment". Here in the Middle East a vast majority of caches require the use of a 4X4. Does this mean that these caches should carry a 5 rating? Not in my eyes as the majority of cachers here all own 4X4's. That then does not mean special equipment here, but in SA or Europe perhaps it might. All depends on what the local standards are I would think.

 

I look forward to more debate around this.

 

Greetings from 44'C in the desert today! :P

 

Agreed - a cache out the city invariably means a 4x4 here in the desert. And with a 4x4 - they are mostly a "2" rating in my book - in that you need a very short scramble after a drive to within 100m of the cache.

 

And I agree with besem too - a 3 puzzle in Netherlands is a lot more difficult than most found in SA - just a local thing however. Similarly within the country - the ratings in KZN certainly differ to those in Gauteng of Western Cape - but I think caches get a local flavour - and that is fine.

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....so when rating the difficulty of a puzzle cache, it is ok to factor in the difficulty of the puzzle?

 

After all, the puzzle is going to account for time taken "looking" for the cache.

 

(I feel this post would be more appropriate under the new "questions to the reviewer" thread)

 

What are the 5/5 caches in SA?

Has anyone done any of them and agree with the rating?

As Andy points out, who would really want to go on a massive hike or need special equipment to get to the cache, only to be faced with a massive challenge of finding it.

(The only reasonable scenarios I can think of could be: a short, easy-ish climb that requires a rope, followed by a well hidden cache or a short paddle in a boat, followed by a big hunt.)

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We have a question for all the statistitions out there (if we can call them that) -

 

Are we (as a country) caching more than last year (with the econmic slow down in mind) or not?

The answer to be Yes or No, with your calculation basis.

 

Now to answer this question you can't take the number of hinds and finds and compare with last year - we need to look deeper - are there more active cachers? finding more caches available - easy ones?....

The analysis my need to go down to each cacher level

 

Anyhow I think you get our dift.....looking forward to knowing the answer....

:P

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We have a question for all the statistitions out there (if we can call them that) -

 

Are we (as a country) caching more than last year (with the econmic slow down in mind) or not?

The answer to be Yes or No, with your calculation basis.

 

Now to answer this question you can't take the number of hinds and finds and compare with last year - we need to look deeper - are there more active cachers? finding more caches available - easy ones?....

The analysis my need to go down to each cacher level

 

Anyhow I think you get our dift.....looking forward to knowing the answer....

:P

The question is then what formula can we come up with that would answer this question.

Maybe something along the lines of getting a ration between caches placed and caches found. in a period?

Maybe we can count the number of caching days, and see if this has increased or decreased.

I know I try and do less caching days, but hopefully more finds on a single outing.

 

If anyone comes up with a hypothesis, or some suggestion we can try and get the answer from the data.

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Are we (as a country) caching more than last year (with the econmic slow down in mind) or not?

The answer to be Yes or No, with your calculation basis.

 

The question is then what formula can we come up with that would answer this question.

 

If anyone comes up with a hypothesis, or some suggestion we can try and get the answer from the data.

 

I'd suggest fitting a regression line through the past caches, and compare the extrapolation thereof to real data. The line cannot be linear, one would probably try a few functions (probably quadratic, or even polynomial) to see which fits best.

 

There is a definate tendency to cache less (or more) during some months, which should be provided for in some way.

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I'd suggest fitting a regression line through the past caches, and compare the extrapolation thereof to real data. The line cannot be linear, one would probably try a few functions (probably quadratic, or even polynomial) to see which fits best.

 

There is a definate tendency to cache less (or more) during some months, which should be provided for in some way.

Once I have completed my logging of the TBs / coins discovered at the CITO event, then I will start getting the following numbers out of the database, for each month, and per province (might as well break it down by province)

Caches Placed

Caches Found

Active Cachers that found caches in that province.

 

We can then use these figures and start looking over each year. I think it would be save to say that each month should be more or less the same. (i.e. December holiday, people cache outside of their province. April is Easter. etc etc.

 

Jorst can you help with those fancy functions?

Danie maybe you get a chance to get the data out before I do.

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I recall the very first event cache we went to (after a few weeks caching) - "Let's quiz again - like we did last summer", Discombob asked the question re current caches and cachers

 

The figures were something like 470 000 caches and 47000 account holders. That was May 2007

 

Here are todays figures

There are 795,401 active caches worldwide. In the last 7 days, there have been 706,502 new logs written by 88,479 account holders.

 

It is quite amazing how the hobby has grown

 

Edited to fix typo

Edited by the pooks
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At last count there were 891 TBs and GCs in all the SA caches.

Some updated TB statistics:

 

There are now (3 June) a total of 902 TBs and GCs in 604 of the 3408 South African caches. This means that on average 1 in 5.6 caches contains at least one TB, and those that do have on average 1.5 TBs.

 

The top three caches are:

GC1GZ0K Little Netherlands TB Hotel: 27 TBs

GCZE7Y Fish Eagle's Coin Collection: 20 TBs (although this one is actually archived)

GC1RN78 K-Deo - TB's Place to Call Home: 19 TBs

Edited by Danie Viljoen
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At last count there were 891 TBs and GCs in all the SA caches.

Some updated TB statistics:

 

There are now (3 June) a total of 902 TBs and GCs in 604 of the 3408 South African caches. This means that on average 1 in 5.6 caches contains at least one TB, and those that do have on average 1.5 TBs.

 

The top three caches are:

GC1GZ0K Little Netherlands TB Hotel: 27 TBs

GCZE7Y Fish Eagle's Coin Collection: 20 TBs (although this one is actually archived)

GC1RN78 K-Deo - TB's Place to Call Home: 19 TBs

 

I wonder what the ratio is between TB/GC in caches to in hand.

My guess is 1 to 3 (1 in cache 3 in hand)

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This one I can not know, as our Databases only contain all caches in South Africa. Also from the data it is difficult to know if a cacher is local or not.

So at this point with the current data it is unknown.

If we had each person's home location (as GS has) then we could find out.

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