The Mainstream Event Horizon....When, if ever.....

[+Smokey Bear Collector]

I haven't read all the replies, so forgive me if this reiterates another opinion.

 

I don't think GC.com would suffer. It would grow accordingly with higher usage thus increasing its advertising rates and income. Being the leader for so many years, GC.com would have a strong market share and be able to survive competition.

 

With more gamers comes more raiding and muggling. Cache numbers may decrease eliminating many of the micros that were placed simply for "numbers". This may result in more larger caches being hid in more interesting and remote areas, rather than the "LPC" and other common cache hides. There would also be more "Premium Members Only" caches being hidden.

 

The game is already changing....corporate sponsors come and go. Jeep and Magellin for instance. The CITO program is also a sponsored program. Further, travel bugs have expanded to now include travel "tags" and geocoins, now compete with Pathtags.

 

Change is good, but there will an increased need to emphasize ethical caching and Cito practices.

 

.... just my humble opinion .....

[CoyoteRed]

I do agree though, that if that happened, this game would be effectively over.

I would agree that it would over as a game with open data. Sign up or pay dues, it wouldn't matter. The more people exposed to the hobby the more likely you'd get more and more maggots. It would get to a point where most would figure why even place a cache?

 

Diehard hobbyists would go underground and tightly control who has access to the listings. Sort of Ultra Premium Member, but one couldn't simply pay $30 and get full access. On the crudest level it would be cache listings passed around between individuals or at small private gatherings.

 

A web site could do that virtually with "reverse bookmarks." This would be where one could designate those accounts that could see their listings.

 

Ultra elitist? More like simply taking it back underground from whence it came.

[+TheAlabamaRambler]

...When I see all the posts in here from folks wanting to be reviewers, I can't help but think that Google, or some other gazillion dollar Internet industry, already has a ready source for their own free reviewing staff. For many in here, (primarily those who have never been, nor will ever be, reviewers for this site), being a reviewer is a position of prestige. Google could easily use that prestige as an incentive to lure away gobs of folks who felt slighted because Groundspeak didn't pick them.

 

I do agree though, that if that happened, this game would be effectively over.

Which is exactly why I say that Groundspeak's body of Reviewers is so unique... Groundspeak's assumption that those who WANT the job want it for the wrong reasons, be it some imagined prestige, the illusion of power, the ability to influence the game to their way of doing things, revenge on cachers they don't like, whatever.

 

This isn't about kissing the fannies of Reviewers, I realize that there are problems, but I think the 'magic' of those particular people coming together at the right time, careful selection and management and close interaction between the Reviewers, Groundspeak and the caching community make what we have very difficult to duplicate.

 

If I am right about their role in building this game then there will obviously be serious obstacles to a larger organization taking Groundspeak's place, and obstacles to Groundspeak itself ever growing the game to 'mainstream' status.

 

Wikipedia says of 'Mainstream'

Mainstream is, generally, the common current of thought of the majority.

Based on the numbers (percentages) in my earlier post we could multiply geocachers by several factors and STILL not be but a blip on the radar of overall population, much less a majority.

Edited March 27, 2010 by TheAlabamaRambler

[+narcissa]

My personal theory about all of this is that interest in geocaching is going to peak soon, and then things will quiet down and the number of people/caches will stabilize.

 

The proliferation of GPS-enabled devices is a big factor in the game's growth lately. Eventually the market will be more-or-less saturated with these devices and the GPS aspect won't be such a novelty.

[+TheAlabamaRambler]

My personal theory about all of this is that interest in geocaching is going to peak soon, and then things will quiet down and the number of people/caches will stabilize.

 

The proliferation of GPS-enabled devices is a big factor in the game's growth lately. Eventually the market will be more-or-less saturated with these devices and the GPS aspect won't be such a novelty.

Seven years to reach one million caches, three years to double that, recently Groundspeak reported their busiest day and extended weekend work hours... I don't see any peaking any time soon. My bet is that they'll double again to two million active caches in less than another three years.

 

And STILL they won't reach the definition of 'mainstream'!

[+Snoogans]

My personal theory about all of this is that interest in geocaching is going to peak soon, and then things will quiet down and the number of people/caches will stabilize.

 

The proliferation of GPS-enabled devices is a big factor in the game's growth lately. Eventually the market will be more-or-less saturated with these devices and the GPS aspect won't be such a novelty.

Seven years to reach one million caches, three years to double that, recently Groundspeak reported their busiest day and extended weekend work hours... I don't see any peaking any time soon. My bet is that they'll double again to two million active caches in less than another three years.

 

And STILL they won't reach the definition of 'mainstream'!

 

Active caches and cachers might not be growing exponentially, but word of mouth and media IS.

 

It's the exact saturation narcissa spoke of that will drive us onward to The Mainstream Event Horizon.

 

However, the average length of time in individual participation fluctuates very little from my observation which says to me The Passing Fadites are probably correct.

 

I still believe Geocaching's place in history will be as easily memorable a the hula hoop, frisbee, CB Radio, and roller skates.... And hopefully as long lasting as that last one.

Edited March 27, 2010 by Snoogans

[+narcissa]

Another thing I expect to see is that geocaching will peak in different places at different times. There are starting to be movements to make cell phones more accessible to people in developing areas, so I would expect to see little flares of increased interest in areas where these devices are introduced.

 

I hear that Groundspeak is taking steps to make Geocaching.com more international, so I would expect some further growth from that. As long as Groundspeak keeps tabs on growth and continues to appoint good reviewers where necessary, I think the growth could be quite manageable for some time.

 

Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the alternative listing sites grow in popularity, especially if Groundspeak is forced to respond to growth by making its guidelines more restrictive.

 

I do think there's a limit to how popular this game can get. As others have pointed out, there are plenty of people who just don't get it, aren't interested, never will be.

[+tozainamboku]

It seems that the Facebook 'Like' button is a sure indication that we are there. (at least for some people)

[drewmm]

It seems that the Facebook 'Like' button is a sure indication that we are there. (at least for some people)

 

It's true. Perhaps Facebook will be the death touch for geocaching.

 

Cue all the people telling me that I haven't been here long enough to have an opinion about this.

[+bittsen]

It seems that the Facebook 'Like' button is a sure indication that we are there. (at least for some people)

 

Quite possibly correct.

 

Oh well, I figure it will be a viable hobby for at least another year and then the damage will be done and irreversible.

At that point I will have had a 3 year run with this hobby. I can live with that.

 

What will my next hobby be? Hmmmmm....

[+sTeamTraen]

As far as seeing a company with a 4-color logo arranged similarly to Groundspeak's, there is no logical reason to believe that they've ever seen the Groundspeak logo, and even if they had that's such a small sampling as to be irrelevant and not indicative of anything.

There a four-coloured square logo using more or less exactly the same colours in the bottom-left hand corner of my computer screen.

[Double Agents]

There's probably a time when we hit the event horizon, and it goes mainstream.

 

Will it matter? yeah

Will it REALLY matter? No.

Will there be bad caches? Yes.

Will there be great caches? Yes.

Will there be one-cache-wonders? Yes.

Will there be terrorist caching? Uh, what?

Will there be more Bomb-squad caches? Yep.

Will people die horribly in accidents or fights while trying to get a FTF? Yeah.

Will there be sub-nano caches which will require a micro-dot viewer and new pencil sharpening techniques to be developed just to sign the stupid log? I don't wanna answer anymore!

 

We might have Hula-Hoop, Pet-Rock, CB, POG, or Tomagachi level fad, but it won't last more than a year or two. Then a couple years tapering down as the hordes abandoned caches are archived and CITO-ed.

 

A big hint to me about the mainstream is the Geomate Jr is available in Target stores. "Geocaching GPS, i herd about that" All the stupid phone programs are another hint.

 

As long as the large data-mining companies (like goggle, macrosaft, apfle..) don't get involved, it's not going to really cause major long-term problems. If they do, it's over. Geocaching WILL be in the cemetery!

 

When it gets really big, it'll just give us something else to whine about. Geocaching was better in 200x (year you started) T-shirts: "I geocached before it was cool" "I geocached without selective availability" "Geocached without WAAS" "I remember Ammo Cans"

[+geodarts]

We might have Hula-Hoop, Pet-Rock, CB, POG, or Tomagachi level fad, but it won't last more than a year or two. Then a couple years tapering down as the hordes abandoned caches are archived and CITO-ed.

 

Geocaching is not like announcing a new web browser to compete against existing products, or a new kind of phone to compete against other smartphones. If it were, perhaps the other alternative listing services might be more important. Although geocaching has grown, when was the last time you navicached or terracached?

 

For better or worse, caching is identified with Groundspeak: the number of listings, its core of volunteers, its commitment to keeping the game accessible to all, and its partnerships. not only with various companies but with groups like the Geological Society (earthcaches), have helped make it unique. In a game where the number of listings mean everything, it has protected its resources (whether it be from Buxley's maps or scraping from various apps). And once you have a certain number of finds identified with this site, are people willing to start over? A find on another listing might be fun, but will it improve your world-caching numbers?

 

Somehow I don't see google or other corporate organizations moving to take over Groundspeak and dominate this particular game. How many bomb squad reports do they want to deal with? But they could take an interest in location-based gaming and release other activities to compete with this one.

 

To the extent that smartphones have fueled some of the growth in caching. by making the game accessible without having to buy a separate gadget, the industry also has led to the development of several location-based games, including Gowalla, Foursquare, or iSpy. It takes a certain critical mass for any of these games to succeed. Geocaching has grown because it seems to have reached that kind of mass and it has reached that mass because it has grown -- you can find a geocache wherever you go. There is no reason not to believe that other games will reach that level. I don't know the numbers, but Gowalla might be out-Waymarking Waymarking by making an easy to use game that can be played on smartphones, that is linked to social networking, icon collecting. certain levels of accomplishment, and the ability to take you to various types of places.

 

Social networking is certainly one thing that is driving many location games, so perhaps that is why we are seeing "friends,""like buttons," and new icons for certain events (just like Gowalla!). But a Gowalla trip that takes you to various coffee sellers might be better suited for those interests than finding micros in a lamp post.

 

So I think there might be other location-based games that are linked to smartphones that could rival geocaching. Google could certainly push its own android location-based applications that might provide alternatives to caching ("Google Earth, The Game"). But as long as people find geocaching to be fun, this site will continue to define it.

 

Two years from now, maybe everyone will be playing Traveler's Quest, GPS Mission, or something that has yet to be released, leaving us to cache. So just as letterboxers have continued to letterbox, geocachers will continue to geocache. And the next big fad may be on the horizon.

Edited June 7, 2010 by mulvaney

[+brslk]

We might have Hula-Hoop, Pet-Rock, CB, POG, or Tomagachi level fad, but it won't last more than a year or two. Then a couple years tapering down as the hordes abandoned caches are archived and CITO-ed.

 

Geocaching is not like announcing a new web browser to compete against existing products, or a new kind of phone to compete against other smartphones. If it were, perhaps the other alternative listing services might be more important. Although geocaching has grown, when was the last time you navicached or terracached?

 

For better or worse, caching is identified with Groundspeak: the number of listings, its core of volunteers, its commitment to keeping the game accessible to all, and its partnerships. not only with various companies but with groups like the Geological Society (earthcaches), have helped make it unique. In a game where the number of listings mean everything, it has protected its resources (whether it be from Buxley's maps or scraping from various apps). And once you have a certain number of finds identified with this site, are people willing to start over? A find on another listing might be fun, but will it improve your world-caching numbers?

 

Somehow I don't see google or other corporate organizations moving to take over Groundspeak and dominate this particular game. How many bomb squad reports do they want to deal with? But they could take an interest in location-based gaming and release other activities to compete with this one.

 

To the extent that smartphones have fueled some of the growth in caching. by making the game accessible without having to buy a separate gadget, the industry also has led to the development of several location-based games, including Gowalla, Foursquare, or iSpy. It takes a certain critical mass for any of these games to succeed. Geocaching has grown because it seems to have reached that kind of mass and it has reached that mass because it has grown -- you can find a geocache wherever you go. There is no reason not to believe that other games will reach that level. I don't know the numbers, but Gowalla might be out-Waymarking Waymarking by making an easy to use game that can be played on smartphones, that is linked to social networking, icon collecting. certain levels of accomplishment, and the ability to take you to various types of places.

 

Social networking is certainly one thing that is driving many location games, so perhaps that is why we are seeing "friends,""like buttons," and new icons for certain events (just like Gowalla!). But a Gowalla trip that takes you to various coffee sellers might be better suited for those interests than finding micros in a lamp post.

 

So I think there might be other location-based games that are linked to smartphones that could rival geocaching. Google could certainly push its own android location-based applications that might provide alternatives to caching ("Google Earth, The Game"). But as long as people find geocaching to be fun, this site will continue to define it.

 

Two years from now, maybe everyone will be playing Traveler's Quest, GPS Mission, or something that has yet to be released, leaving us to cache. So just as letterboxers have continued to letterbox, geocachers will continue to geocache. And the next big fad may be on the horizon.

 

^that.

[+Snoogans]

A whirlwind of changes for our sport are on the horizon once geocaching crosses the event horizon toward becoming mainstream.

 

We must all face the fact that GC.com, in its present form, may not last forever.

 

If at some point geocaching were to become a mainstream activity, meaning millions of geocachers worldwide geocaching on a daily basis, someone would NEED to step in with loads of money and resources that the current powers that be don't possess. We're talkin' sell out, or die, and possibly BOTH, plus a much deserved payday for the folks that have brought us thus far. Can the Groundspeak shareholders/partners give a hearty CHA-CHING!!!?

 

Anyone up for Google cachin'? Microsoft Cachin'? Disney Cachin'? No, I'm not privy to inside information, but remember where you heard it. It would take a branch of the resources of an entity such as those to handle geocaching as a mainstream activity and all the possibilities/problems that entails.

 

After spending a week in Seattle, visiting GC HQ, and then meeting/seeing most of the Groundspeak team in action and hearing their stories @ L&F + 9 other events I attended in the area, I retract my statements to this thread from years ago doubting that Groundspeak had the horsepower to make it over and through the Mainstream Event Horizen. I now think Jeremy, Bryan, and Elias and their ever growing team have things well in hand to go the distance should it be their intent go that far. Probably always had, but you knowww, seeing is believing and a whole lot of changes have happened from the OP until now. I'm rooting for that to happen.

[GOF and Bacall]

Are we any closer to the horizon? Or have we in fact crossed on over to the other side?

 

 

The man with the over sized ego was gonna do it anyway so what the heck?!

[+Snoogans]

Are we any closer to the horizon? Or have we in fact crossed on over to the other side?

 

I don't think we're quite there yet. BUT with 300K caches published within just several months of the 1M active cache milestone, that tells me we are on greased rails to the point of Mainstream no return... When you consider that it took 6 YEARS to hit 333k active caches and nearly 4 more years to a million. Yeah baby, we're WELL on our way. Without looking at what I've already posted, I think the magic number is around 3 million active caches before it all starts to go hulahoop.

The man with the over sized ego was gonna do it anyway so what the heck?!

 

Pssst. That foreshadowing thing.... Ummm, was just a ruse to make a select few people I have scarred lose sleep watchdogging the OT forum. I wasn't really gonna have a bump day. Besides, I only do that in OT.

 

However, in keeping with my huge ego, I would hope that my bump day tradition continue in the event of my untimely death. Like Towel Day for Douglas Adams.

[+Snoogans]

Another indication that we are getting closer to the MEH.... Or will it be meh?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDEjpmfO9NM

[+Snoogans]

And another:

 

[+aurght]

Don't worry. GC aint big enough for a 'big box' to be interested. 5 or 6 million members claimed is not near enough. Compared to the management and operational costs there is not near enough profit potential. How many FB or Twit?

 

We are getting mainstream recognition, as the posted vids show. And geocaching gets first billing in the Depoe Bay, OR tourist brochure!!

 

That is having some effect, more awareness, more plundering, etc.

 

As others have posted, it aint everybody's cup of tea. Lots of my friends would never cache.

[+Snoogans]

We are getting mainstream recognition, as the posted vids show. And geocaching gets first billing in the Depoe Bay, OR tourist brochure!!

 

That is having some effect, more awareness, more plundering, etc.

 

As others have posted, it aint everybody's cup of tea. Lots of my friends would never cache.

 

I agree that it's not everyone's cup of tea, but I think some of the lack of interest from the casual reader when first seeing it or hearing it is the word "geocaching" itself. The word doesn't convey much interest. It doesn't jump out and sound FUN. When I first discovered the word on the Vermilion Valley Resort website in 2003, I thought it was a photo contest.

 

After reading the descripion there was a fundamental appeal, because I was already a cacher. Had been a cacher since I was about 5yo. As a geocacher, I'm still more of a hider than a finder.

 

It would be interesting to find a way to speculate on what part of the as yet unenlightened remainder of the public would find a fundamental appeal for geocaching. From my experience that group is small, but would still make geocaching several orders of magnitude greater than it is now. Not one person that I know of who discovered geocaching through me has become a regularly active geocacher and quite a few of those were very excited at first.

 

There seemed to be a common thread back in 2003-2005. Folks who were already making use of the outdoors, were computer/tech savvy, and in many cases early adopters. Now days, there is no common thread and the faces change quickly.

 

It was easier to spot the lifers as they joined back in the day. (They were the ones who stayed behind to clean up at events.) Today they are harder to spot. I almost have amnesia for cacher faces and names until I have seen and interacted with them several times.

 

Still. It would be fun to develope a geocaching aptitude test.... (hmmmm, gears turning) Perhaps there would be a way to gauge when/if the MEH will happen.

[+Snoogans]

That was then.....

 

Are we any closer to the horizon? Or have we in fact crossed on over to the other side?

 

I don't think we're quite there yet. BUT with 300K caches published within just several months of the 1M active cache milestone, that tells me we are on greased rails to the point of Mainstream no return... When you consider that it took 6 YEARS to hit 333k active caches and nearly 4 more years to a million. Yeah baby, we're WELL on our way. Without looking at what I've already posted, I think the magic number is around 3 million active caches before it all starts to go hulahoop.

 

This is now!

 

There are not 6,000,000 accounts, there are over 8,950,000 accounts. That's a nice round number, so 8,950,000 was created last weekend.

 

Today, its up to 8,980,000. That's another 30,000 in the last 5 days? At a rate of 6,000 per day. 250 per hour, 4.1 per minute, 1 every 14.4 seconds..

 

Today it's up to 9,780,000. That's 800,000 new accounts in the last 87 days, which is close to 9,200 new accounts per day. It's good to have a fresh flow of new people, but a flood of new app users is a little different..

 

Whoa.... Geocaching's Mainstream Event Horizon is within view. Let's see if my prediction holds...

[+Snoogans]

Oh, and 2,419,297 caches active... I wish I had some Groundspeak stock.